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Forums - Sales - MikeB's past predictions

starcraft on 29 April 2010
MikeB said:

@ numonex

You failed to provide a reasonable explanation on how the PS3 will achieve the 15 million


The future proof design of the console should be the key, together with excellent exclusive releases.

No console this generation is futureproof.

My rather crappy PC can likely outperform the PS3 comfortably.

The PC I am buying shortly and quite inexpensively definitely will.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

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starcraft on 29 April 2010
vaio said:

For the 6 months in this time period you had 10 predictions and only one accurate.

jun 07 2007:

 

I think for christmas 2007 the PS3 will show important sales victories in Europe, Australia, Japan (duh!) and other asian countries. For North America I expect sales to go neck to neck, mainly due to the release of Halo 3.

I expect the PS3 to surpass the XBox 360 total hardware sales somewhere late in 2008 and finally when a slimline version appears and the PS2 is retired to dominate significantly over the XBox 360.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=58804

 

jul 25 2007:

 

My guess (worldwide):

3 years from now (PS2 RIP)

1) PS3
2) Wii
.
.
.
.
3) X360

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=112731

jul 26 2007:

I anticipate mass upgrades from the existing PS2 install base by the time the PS2 is discontinued and a cheaper slimline PS3 is released.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=114212

 

oct 01 2007:

I think a Wii HD may be released before the Wii reaches a 40 million install base as well.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=209901

Oct 22 2007:

It looks like we are well underway to see a slimline PS3 being released next year

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=248380

Dec 18 2007:

I think Christmas 2008 will be less big than this year for the Nintendo Wii

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=344291

Dec 17 2007

My prediction for 2008, PS3 sells like hotcakes in Japan compared to 2007 (360 sales fall flat). 360 and PS3 sales gap will narrow further or overtake for North America, Europe PS3 sales will significantly overtake XBox 360 total sales there.

Christmas 2008, PS3 sales starts to beat global sales of the Wii (have been called names for suggesting this with regard to 360 vs PS3 Christmas 2007 sales last year, now people may be a little more open minded).

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=343306

Dec 18 2007

shams:
Only the PS2 can take down the Wii


MikeB
I would think more along the lines of a Slimline PS3, which may not happen in 2008, maybe more likely in 2009 with the PS2 getting retired.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=344366

Dec 27 2007

I think the Wii will outsell other home consoles for 2008 as a whole, but I think the PS3 will win christmas 2008

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=361540

The only right prediction in this timeframe:

AUG 25 2007

For Japan I see no chance for the XBox 360 to be of any true significance, for Europe and the rest ot the world I expect the PS3 to win overall (even despite a price drop).

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=155202

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your first prediction for a slimline was for 2008 and ofcourse you are eventually right if you keep moving the prediction on a yearly basis.

This pretty much ends the need for this thread's existence.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

starcraft on 29 April 2010
MikeB said:
vaio said:

MikeB said:
@ vaio

I already acknowledged (about 10 times) the Nintendo Wii is more an success than I anticipated. But still I believed in its success unlike most others at the time.


Also the PS3 not getting a pricedrop for more than a year probably due to currency issues (cheap dollar, expensive yen) also wasn't anticipated.

This is nothing new and has been talked about endlessly already.

None of the links i used talks about what you are commenting here

How about talking how u predicted a slim in 2008 first and then after that failed you made a prediction for 2009?

or

Wii Hd would come when wii reached 40 million?

anyway the point being with my links is that you hardly are good enough in your predictions to make a thread about it and boasting how good you are especially not when one of your main points being that you predicted a slim for 2009 when you first predicted a slim for 2008 and then later changed your tune to 2009.

I said things looked to be on track early 2007. By the end of 2007 IMO things significantly went off track, the economic crisis caused a snowball effect and especially major Japanese consumer electronics companies had to rethink their strategies. The only positive may have been that Toshiba threw the towel in the ring sooner than anticipated regarding the Blu-Ray vs HD DVD format war. IMO a PS3 slim for the holiday season 2008 would have been ideal, sadly the conditions for 2008 were far from ideal. In 2008 I talked about that in discussions.

When the bubble would burst exactly was hard to predict, it could just as well have happened 1 year earlier or a couple of years later.

The original Nintendo Wii still sells very well, but I think a Wii HD supporting both SD and HD doesn't have to much more expensive, but would have been better for the market. I didn't claim it would happen, I said it may happen.

The point of this thread is that my comments weren't nearly as bad as many fans claimed them to be. Especially with regard to technology, but certainly also with regard to sales and market developments.

Actually, the point of this thread seems to be to harp on about the approximately ten per cent of predictions you make that appear to be correct, ignore (or worse, deliberately misconstrue) every user that wins an argument with you through the simple provision of evidence, and to make ridiculous and technologically inaccurate comments akin to "the PS3 is future-proof," which show a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of a console in the first place.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

numonex on 29 April 2010
vaio said:

For the 6 months in this time period you had 10 predictions and only one accurate.

jun 07 2007:

 

I think for christmas 2007 the PS3 will show important sales victories in Europe, Australia, Japan (duh!) and other asian countries. For North America I expect sales to go neck to neck, mainly due to the release of Halo 3.

I expect the PS3 to surpass the XBox 360 total hardware sales somewhere late in 2008 and finally when a slimline version appears and the PS2 is retired to dominate significantly over the XBox 360.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=58804

 

jul 25 2007:

 

My guess (worldwide):

3 years from now (PS2 RIP)

1) PS3
2) Wii
.
.
.
.
3) X360

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=112731

jul 26 2007:

I anticipate mass upgrades from the existing PS2 install base by the time the PS2 is discontinued and a cheaper slimline PS3 is released.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=114212

 

oct 01 2007:

I think a Wii HD may be released before the Wii reaches a 40 million install base as well.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=209901

Oct 22 2007:

It looks like we are well underway to see a slimline PS3 being released next year

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=248380

Dec 18 2007:

I think Christmas 2008 will be less big than this year for the Nintendo Wii

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=344291

Dec 17 2007

My prediction for 2008, PS3 sells like hotcakes in Japan compared to 2007 (360 sales fall flat). 360 and PS3 sales gap will narrow further or overtake for North America, Europe PS3 sales will significantly overtake XBox 360 total sales there.

Christmas 2008, PS3 sales starts to beat global sales of the Wii (have been called names for suggesting this with regard to 360 vs PS3 Christmas 2007 sales last year, now people may be a little more open minded).

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=343306

Dec 18 2007

shams:
Only the PS2 can take down the Wii


MikeB
I would think more along the lines of a Slimline PS3, which may not happen in 2008, maybe more likely in 2009 with the PS2 getting retired.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=344366

Dec 27 2007

I think the Wii will outsell other home consoles for 2008 as a whole, but I think the PS3 will win christmas 2008

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=361540

The only right prediction in this timeframe:

AUG 25 2007

For Japan I see no chance for the XBox 360 to be of any true significance, for Europe and the rest ot the world I expect the PS3 to win overall (even despite a price drop).

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=155202

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your first prediction for a slimline was for 2008 and ofcourse you are eventually right if you keep moving the prediction on a yearly basis.

MikeB's predictions  come true as often as a broken clock displaying the right time of day.

Keep changing your predictions and the year and you eventually get a sales prediction right.



MikeB on 29 April 2010
starcraft said:
MikeB said:

@ numonex

You failed to provide a reasonable explanation on how the PS3 will achieve the 15 million


The future proof design of the console should be the key, together with excellent exclusive releases.

No console this generation is futureproof.

My rather crappy PC can likely outperform the PS3 comfortably.

The PC I am buying shortly and quite inexpensively definitely will.

Probably in some ways your new PC will (if a gaming PC) and other ways it won't. The PS3 is probably a cheaper / better Blu-Ray and gaming option for most.

With future proof, I am not claiming endlessly futureproof.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

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starcraft on 29 April 2010
MikeB said:
starcraft said:
MikeB said:

@ numonex

You failed to provide a reasonable explanation on how the PS3 will achieve the 15 million


The future proof design of the console should be the key, together with excellent exclusive releases.

No console this generation is futureproof.

My rather crappy PC can likely outperform the PS3 comfortably.

The PC I am buying shortly and quite inexpensively definitely will.

Probably in some ways your new PC will (if a gaming PC) and other ways it won't. The PS3 is probably a cheaper / better Blu-Ray and gaming option for most.

With future proof, I am not claiming endlessly futureproof.

It was future proof for about six months after it came out.

 

If that.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

Booh! on 29 April 2010
starcraft said:
MikeB said:
starcraft said:
MikeB said:

@ numonex

You failed to provide a reasonable explanation on how the PS3 will achieve the 15 million


The future proof design of the console should be the key, together with excellent exclusive releases.

No console this generation is futureproof.

My rather crappy PC can likely outperform the PS3 comfortably.

The PC I am buying shortly and quite inexpensively definitely will.

Probably in some ways your new PC will (if a gaming PC) and other ways it won't. The PS3 is probably a cheaper / better Blu-Ray and gaming option for most.

With future proof, I am not claiming endlessly futureproof.

It was future proof for about six months after it came out.

 

If that.

Mhm, at least three years, it seems:

http://www.tomsguide.com/us/usaf-ps3-playstation-cluster-cell,news-5177.html

http://www.tomsguide.com/us/ps3-air-force-usaf-playstation,news-5297.html

Maybe four years, we'll see at the end of this year...