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Forums - Sales - MikeB's past predictions

@ ironman

One example:
http://uk.xbox360.ign.com/articles/617/617951p1.html

That's extreme misinformation, countless fanboys made themselves look like fools because of such behaviour. Should nobody counter this? Sadly fanboys direct their anger at the wrong people, they should rather re-direct their anger towards Microsoft.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

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I would say your earlier post on the xenos and rsx makes you just as guilty as the website you linked.
You haven't shown any proof to back up what you and only one other person on the internet (who happens to be on this website) claim.



MikeB said:
@ ironman

One example:
http://uk.xbox360.ign.com/articles/617/617951p1.html

That's extreme misinformation, countless fanboys made themselves look like fools because of such behaviour. Should nobody counter this? Sadly fanboys direct their anger at the wrong people, they should rather re-direct their anger towards Microsoft.

That has nothing to do with what we were talking about. Stop trying to move the conversation on to something else. Answer my question, Why is MS so bad?  



Past Avatar picture!!!

Don't forget your helmet there, Master Chief!

MikeB said:
@ ironman

One example:
http://uk.xbox360.ign.com/articles/617/617951p1.html

That's extreme misinformation, countless fanboys made themselves look like fools because of such behaviour. Should nobody counter this? Sadly fanboys direct their anger at the wrong people, they should rather re-direct their anger towards Microsoft.

How about all the trouble you caused on this site with your misinformation saying the Bluray drive on the PS3 was faster than the 360 DVD drive (just one example).  It was complete bullshit but even when proved completely wrong without doubt you would not admit you were wrong publically and proceeded to try and change the topic by trolling some other aspect of the 360 instead. 

You're no better than the people you're insulting about using that article, at least some of them could probably conceed they were wrong, you have never done so, despite being proven wrong MANY times.  Once again I see despite the mods having basically told you not to start trouble with a 360 v PS3 thread (they locked your last one) you've decided to start it again in an effort to annoy people.  Can't wait for your next enforced vacation, I only hope its longer.



MikeB said:

I have been attacked by many fanboys for my "insane long term outlook" regarding the PS3 here on VGChartz in the past. It now seems like my anticipation for a slimline PS3 by 2009 back in 2006 have been correct and not that insane at all as some made this out to be. A former summary:

 

MikeB wrote at the start of 2009 (2nd of January):

I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average.

So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1622174



To quote myself from 2007:

"Lots of my past writings are available on the internet, want me to look them up for you? I also predicted in mid 2005 that it would be troublesome to get legacy engines onto the Cell's SPEs, so it's not all just rosey expectations neither.

I expect the PS3 to continue to perform roughly on par with XBox 360 sales from the year before, until Killzone 2, Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy XIII and Metal Gear Solid 4 are all on the market (when that will be exactly may not even be known to the developers themselves."



Also from that thread regarding earlier expectations replying to a moderator:

"Last year at the beginning of the PS3's launch I said the PS2 would be the big winner for christmas 2006 (I was right with regard to that one) and expected the PS3's first real sales victory worldwide over the XBox 360 for christmas 2007, I still think so, as data so far seems to back up my expectations."

"I always thought Japan would turn PS3 as soon as Metal Gear Solid 4 and / or Final Fantasy XIII hit the market"



Quoting myself from 2006:

I was talking about Christmas 2007.

For 2006 my prediction is that the Playstation 2 will be on top (not counting the handhelds). Nintendo Wii and PS3 will sell as much as their companies can produce. I think 2006 will also be a good year for the XBox 360 in closing, but will not get close to PS2 figures."


"The Wii hype will dry down quite a bit, though still preferred by many young kids and females, after 2008 I expect HDTV penetration and higher expectations to considerably hurt worldwide sales, somewhere in 2009 I think HD DVD will have lost the format war and the Slimline PS3 really starts to take off.



This basically sums up my past expectations voiced here on VGChartz. I think overall pretty good, apart from HD DVD dying a little quicker than expected. And in another thread I expected an official PS3 price cut for 2008, which did not happen IMO due to the unforeseen weak dollar, high value yen and weak global economy. I expected great success for the Wii before it launched, but the amount has taken me by suprise as well. But they were closer to reality than many other expectations from other people.

Things IMO spot on:
- PS2 coming out on top for 2006.
- PS3 beating the XBox 360 for Christmas 2007, despite the release of Halo 3.
- HD DVD losing the high definition format war.
- Wii hype cooling down in 2009 (for example Japan, Wii owners complaining about party games, relatively bad 3rd party support, etc).
- Wii being popular amongst kids and females (refer to recent Nielsen study regarding demographics)
- Early Quick and Dirty 360 to PS3 ports.
- PS3 performing roughly on par with the 360 from the year before (actually it performs better, but that's why I stated "roughly").

Remains to be seen:

- Slimline PS3 for 2009 (confirmed) and its impact.
- Impact of Final Fantasy XIII on the PS3 for Japan.

Look guys seriously! This is a forum about video games and there are fans in either camp. Half the fun of this forums is making predictions, posting, and defending them whether they are right wrong or otherwise. Why does anyone even bother getting angry by absurd assumptions, smug remarks, or any other kind: THAT'S THE POINT! The Internet is there to state opinions and slander anonymously. In all honesty, the complete lack of thick skin is absurd to me.

I have to wonder about this flame war between Mike B and Kowenicki that's been happening at least once a week. Both of you need to fight it out on a street, get bloody, laugh at each other for the absolute pointlessness, buy eachother a beer, and forget about it all. If it weren't for your love of your respected systems chances are it sounds like you guys would be excellent friends.

This is a game in the most traditional sense of the term (reference Eric Byrne). People make predictions, they choose sides, they defend those points. It's a glorfied ongoing debate with a little teasing here and there. Both camps (360 and PS3 defenders alike) have had bad predictions, get over it and deal when someone rubs their correct predictions in the other party's face. This should be fun, or at least I think its fun! Make assumptions, defend your points (with facts, speculation, or a combination of the two) tease each other, but by God don't get mad about it.

Everyone reserves the right, as a part of the human condition (I would actually say we are obligated), to make fools of ourselves. Otherwise it wouldn't be any fun at all. Who'd want that?



-- Nothing is nicer than seeing your PS3 on an HDTV through an HDMI cable for the first time.

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halil23 said:
MikeB said:
@ ironman

One example:
http://uk.xbox360.ign.com/articles/617/617951p1.html

That's extreme misinformation, countless fanboys made themselves look like fools because of such behaviour. Should nobody counter this? Sadly fanboys direct their anger at the wrong people, they should rather re-direct their anger towards Microsoft.

Well no surprise here! M$ has a huge track records of lying to everyone!! (one of the disturbing truths is that M$ puts spyware in Windows just to monitor your privacy!!)

Thank God I've never supported/brought any of their products. But sad to see many continue to do the wrong thing hence letting M$ continue when in a perfect world it would have rightfully been the other way!!!

I hate to tell you this, but it was Sony that put spyware on their music CDs to monitor the usage and make sure they weren't pirated. As for MS putting spyware in their OS...I have not heard of this before. Link please! 



Past Avatar picture!!!

Don't forget your helmet there, Master Chief!

You're making MS seem like any other big business.
And I thought they were saintly like...
well I can't think of a big business that's like that.



There is a real problem about misinformation, take this post as example:

Hynad said:
Core Clock Frequency
Xbox 360 - 500 MHz
PS3 - 500 MHz

Triangle Setup
Xbox 360 - 500 Million Triangles/sec
PS3 - 250 Million Triangles/sec

Vertex Shader Processing (Vertex ALU x Clock / 4)
Xbox 360 - 6.0 Billion Vertices/sec (using all 48 Unified Pipelines)
Xbox 360 - 2.0 Billion Vertices/sec (using 16 of the 48 Unified Pipelines)
Xbox 360 - 1.5 Billion Vertices/sec (using 12 of the 48 Unified Pipelines)
Xbox 360 - 1.0 Billion Vertices/sec (using 8 of the 48 Unified Pipelines)

PS3 - 1.0 Billion Vertices/sec

Filtered Texture Fetch
Xbox 360 - 8.0 Billion Texels/sec
PS3 - 12.0 Billion Texels/sec

Vertex Texture Fetch
Xbox 360 - 8.0 Billion Texels/sec
PS3 - 4.0 Billion Texels/sec

Pixel Shader Processing with 16 Filtered Texels Per Cycle (Pixel ALU x Clock)
Xbox 360 - 24.0 Billion Pixels/sec (using all 48 Unified Pipelines)
Xbox 360 - 20.0 Billion Pixels/sec (using 40 of the 48 Unified Pipelines)
Xbox 360 - 18.0 Billion Pixels/sec (using 36 of the 48 Unified Pipelines)
Xbox 360 - 16.0 Billion Pixels/sec (using 32 of the 48 Unified Pipelines)

PS3 - 16.0 Billion Pixels/sec

Pixel Shader Processing without Textures (Pixel ALU x Clock)
Xbox 360 - 24.0 Billion Pixels/sec (using all 48 Unified Pipelines)
Xbox 360 - 20.0 Billion Pixels/sec (using 40 of the 48 Unified Pipelines)
Xbox 360 - 18.0 Billion Pixels/sec (using 36 of the 48 Unified Pipelines)
Xbox 360 - 16.0 Billion Pixels/sec (using 32 of the 48 Unified Pipelines)

PS3 - 24.0 Billion Pixels/sec

Multisampled Fill Rate
Xbox 360 - 16.0 Billion Samples/sec (8 ROPS x 4 Samples x 500MHz)
PS3 - 8.0 Billion Samples/sec (8 ROPS x 2 Samples x 500MHz)

Pixel Fill Rate with 4x Multisampled Anti-Aliasing
Xbox 360 - 4.0 Billion Pixels/sec (8 ROPS x 4 Samples x 500MHz / 4)
PS3 - 2.0 Billion Pixels/sec (8 ROPS x 2 Samples x 500MHz / 4)

Pixel Fill Rate without Anti-Aliasing
Xbox 360 - 4.0 Billion Pixels/sec (8 ROPS x 500MHz)
PS3 - 4.0 Billion Pixels/sec (8 ROPS x 500MHz)

Frame Buffer Bandwidth
Xbox 360 - 256.0 GB/sec (dedicated for frame buffer rendering)
PS3 - 20.8 GB/sec (shared with other graphics data: textures and vertices)
PS3 - 10.8 GB/sec (with 10.0 GB/sec subtracted for textures and vertices)
PS3 - 8.4 GB/sec (with 12.4 GB/sec subtracted for textures and vertices)

Texture/Vertex Memory Bandwidth
Xbox 360 - 22.4 GB/sec (shared with CPU)
Xbox 360 - 14.4 GB/sec (with 8.0 GB/sec subtracted for CPU)
Xbox 360 - 12.4 GB/sec (with 10.0 GB/sec subtracted for CPU)
PS3 - 20.8 GB/sec (shared with frame buffer)
PS3 - 10.8 GB/sec (with 10.0 GB/sec subtracted for frame buffer)
PS3 - 8.4 GB/sec (with 12.4 GB/sec subtracted for frame buffer)

Shader Model
Xbox 360 - Shader Model 3.0+ / Unified Shader Architecture
PS3 - Shader Model 3.0 / Discrete Shader Architecture

Should I say more, MikeB?

FALSE: the RSX is clocked at 550 MHz (so all the subsequent math is flawed).

ALMOST TRUE: ...but  you can't use all the 48 pipelines at the same time, so the theoretical maximum is much lower.

FALSE AND GETTING OLD: that's just the bandwith of the 10 MB EDRAM, not the frame buffer bandwith (which is the Memory Bandwidth, shown below).

As a rule of thumb: ATI GPU's have more raw power, while NVIDIA GPU's are better engineered.

some reference:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSX_%27Reality_Synthesizer%27

http://wiki.ps2dev.org/ps3:rsx

http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,2053309,00.asp



All stats thrown out are theoratical maximum. To actually achieve that is close to impossible.



MikeB said:

I have been attacked by many fanboys for my "insane long term outlook" regarding the PS3 here on VGChartz in the past. It now seems like my anticipation for a slimline PS3 by 2009 back in 2006 have been correct and not that insane at all as some made this out to be. A former summary:

 

MikeB wrote at the start of 2009 (2nd of January):

I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average.

So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1622174



To quote myself from 2007:

"Lots of my past writings are available on the internet, want me to look them up for you? I also predicted in mid 2005 that it would be troublesome to get legacy engines onto the Cell's SPEs, so it's not all just rosey expectations neither.

I expect the PS3 to continue to perform roughly on par with XBox 360 sales from the year before, until Killzone 2, Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy XIII and Metal Gear Solid 4 are all on the market (when that will be exactly may not even be known to the developers themselves."



Also from that thread regarding earlier expectations replying to a moderator:

"Last year at the beginning of the PS3's launch I said the PS2 would be the big winner for christmas 2006 (I was right with regard to that one) and expected the PS3's first real sales victory worldwide over the XBox 360 for christmas 2007, I still think so, as data so far seems to back up my expectations."

"I always thought Japan would turn PS3 as soon as Metal Gear Solid 4 and / or Final Fantasy XIII hit the market"



Quoting myself from 2006:

I was talking about Christmas 2007.

For 2006 my prediction is that the Playstation 2 will be on top (not counting the handhelds). Nintendo Wii and PS3 will sell as much as their companies can produce. I think 2006 will also be a good year for the XBox 360 in closing, but will not get close to PS2 figures."


"The Wii hype will dry down quite a bit, though still preferred by many young kids and females, after 2008 I expect HDTV penetration and higher expectations to considerably hurt worldwide sales, somewhere in 2009 I think HD DVD will have lost the format war and the Slimline PS3 really starts to take off.



This basically sums up my past expectations voiced here on VGChartz. I think overall pretty good, apart from HD DVD dying a little quicker than expected. And in another thread I expected an official PS3 price cut for 2008, which did not happen IMO due to the unforeseen weak dollar, high value yen and weak global economy. I expected great success for the Wii before it launched, but the amount has taken me by suprise as well. But they were closer to reality than many other expectations from other people.

Things IMO spot on:
- PS2 coming out on top for 2006.
- PS3 beating the XBox 360 for Christmas 2007, despite the release of Halo 3.
- HD DVD losing the high definition format war.
- Wii hype cooling down in 2009 (for example Japan, Wii owners complaining about party games, relatively bad 3rd party support, etc).
- Wii being popular amongst kids and females (refer to recent Nielsen study regarding demographics)
- Early Quick and Dirty 360 to PS3 ports.
- PS3 performing roughly on par with the 360 from the year before (actually it performs better, but that's why I stated "roughly").

Remains to be seen:

- Slimline PS3 for 2009 (confirmed) and its impact.
- Impact of Final Fantasy XIII on the PS3 for Japan.

wow! you did good man. what do you predict for 2012. heres my mine for 2012

Ps3 108-120m

Wii 116m

360 80-110m