MikeB's past predictions

[kaneada]

MikeB said:

I have been attacked by many fanboys for my "insane long term outlook" regarding the PS3 here on VGChartz in the past. It now seems like my anticipation for a slimline PS3 by 2009 back in 2006 have been correct and not that insane at all as some made this out to be. A former summary:

 

MikeB wrote at the start of 2009 (2nd of January):

I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average.

So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1622174

To quote myself from 2007:

"Lots of my past writings are available on the internet, want me to look them up for you? I also predicted in mid 2005 that it would be troublesome to get legacy engines onto the Cell's SPEs, so it's not all just rosey expectations neither.

I expect the PS3 to continue to perform roughly on par with XBox 360 sales from the year before, until Killzone 2, Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy XIII and Metal Gear Solid 4 are all on the market (when that will be exactly may not even be known to the developers themselves."

Also from that thread regarding earlier expectations replying to a moderator:

"Last year at the beginning of the PS3's launch I said the PS2 would be the big winner for christmas 2006 (I was right with regard to that one) and expected the PS3's first real sales victory worldwide over the XBox 360 for christmas 2007, I still think so, as data so far seems to back up my expectations."

"I always thought Japan would turn PS3 as soon as Metal Gear Solid 4 and / or Final Fantasy XIII hit the market"

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=290339

Quoting myself from 2006:

I was talking about Christmas 2007.

For 2006 my prediction is that the Playstation 2 will be on top (not counting the handhelds). Nintendo Wii and PS3 will sell as much as their companies can produce. I think 2006 will also be a good year for the XBox 360 in closing, but will not get close to PS2 figures."

"The Wii hype will dry down quite a bit, though still preferred by many young kids and females, after 2008 I expect HDTV penetration and higher expectations to considerably hurt worldwide sales, somewhere in 2009 I think HD DVD will have lost the format war and the Slimline PS3 really starts to take off.

This basically sums up my past expectations voiced here on VGChartz. I think overall pretty good, apart from HD DVD dying a little quicker than expected. And in another thread I expected an official PS3 price cut for 2008, which did not happen IMO due to the unforeseen weak dollar, high value yen and weak global economy. I expected great success for the Wii before it launched, but the amount has taken me by suprise as well. But they were closer to reality than many other expectations from other people.

Things IMO spot on:
- PS2 coming out on top for 2006.
- PS3 beating the XBox 360 for Christmas 2007, despite the release of Halo 3.
- HD DVD losing the high definition format war.
- Wii hype cooling down in 2009 (for example Japan, Wii owners complaining about party games, relatively bad 3rd party support, etc).
- Wii being popular amongst kids and females (refer to recent Nielsen study regarding demographics)
- Early Quick and Dirty 360 to PS3 ports.
- PS3 performing roughly on par with the 360 from the year before (actually it performs better, but that's why I stated "roughly").

Remains to be seen:

- Slimline PS3 for 2009 (confirmed) and its impact.
- Impact of Final Fantasy XIII on the PS3 for Japan.

Look guys seriously! This is a forum about video games and there are fans in either camp. Half the fun of this forums is making predictions, posting, and defending them whether they are right wrong or otherwise. Why does anyone even bother getting angry by absurd assumptions, smug remarks, or any other kind: THAT'S THE POINT! The Internet is there to state opinions and slander anonymously. In all honesty, the complete lack of thick skin is absurd to me.

I have to wonder about this flame war between Mike B and Kowenicki that's been happening at least once a week. Both of you need to fight it out on a street, get bloody, laugh at each other for the absolute pointlessness, buy eachother a beer, and forget about it all. If it weren't for your love of your respected systems chances are it sounds like you guys would be excellent friends.

This is a game in the most traditional sense of the term (reference Eric Byrne). People make predictions, they choose sides, they defend those points. It's a glorfied ongoing debate with a little teasing here and there. Both camps (360 and PS3 defenders alike) have had bad predictions, get over it and deal when someone rubs their correct predictions in the other party's face. This should be fun, or at least I think its fun! Make assumptions, defend your points (with facts, speculation, or a combination of the two) tease each other, but by God don't get mad about it.

Everyone reserves the right, as a part of the human condition (I would actually say we are obligated), to make fools of ourselves. Otherwise it wouldn't be any fun at all. Who'd want that?