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Forums - Sales - MikeB's past predictions

I dont know why ppl were expecting so much high from FFXIII, when FFXIII just performed like the previous iteration.. except for FFVII which had good legs.. other than that all FF games had huge first week and large drops.



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greenmedic88 said:
jarrod said:
MikeB said:
MikeB said:

Remains to be seen:

- Slimline PS3 for 2009 (confirmed) and its impact.
- Impact of Final Fantasy XIII on the PS3 for Japan.

Seems promising so far, I think.

Sort of fizzled.  They should've released the 360 rev in Japan too, they probably could've gotten another 150k out of collectors, otakus and gaijuns, and then FFXIII actually could've crossed 2m. 

Zero lasting hardware impact too really.  Thankfully, Sony had Torne, Hokuto and RGG4 to swing things around recently.

This is pretty much the case with every game, regardless of how many units it sells (MW2, GTAIV, etc.). It's a pretty poor argument for anyone to state that a single game will result in permanently increased hardware sales for any given platform. I'm actually kind of surprised some people still believe in this.

At best, a phenomenally selling game might expect to move 500k hardware units over its initial sales period (I'll even be generous and make it a million). Hardware sales levels drop back down to normal levels once that initial surge is finished.

About the only exception I can think of offhand would be Wii Fit, which is practically an immediate second purchase for anyone buying a Wii.

I would say both Wii Sports (not Resort) and New Super Mario Bros. Wii had a similar long lasting impact, with Mario's still going today.  And so have various portable games, Pokemon and Monster Hunter notably which each single handedly revitalized Game Boy and PSP in Japan.  DS also didn't really seem to take off in Japan until the Touch Generations stuff (Nintendogs, Brain Training, Animal Crossing, etc) started hitting.

FFXIII was pretty much unlike all of those.  It barely seemed to lift hardware sales much beyond the expected holiday lift, and the game's sales themselves mark a disappointing lowpoint for the franchise on PlayStation consoles.  Not exactly a shining moment.



MikeB said:
greenmedic88 said:
MikeB said:

@ greenmedic88

Sorry Mike, but I have to pull out the actual numbers for FFXIII in Japan here.


I know I look at topics from many different angles, more so than most, so I will try to make the logic as simple as possible.

Why is Final Fantasy so important for Japan, beyond just sales to Final Fantasy fans? (Note that I'm not a Final Fantasy fan at all nor a Gran Turismo fan, despite this I mark them as critical titles)

Final Fantasy is a major popular franchise, its launch was massive in Japan. Mass press coverage puts the PS3 in the spotlight. This is very good for sales of the console beyond just selling consoles to Final Fantasy fans. Can you understand this logic?

To repeat myself verbatim: Basically, you're saying that despite the fact that almost no one is currently buying FFXIII in Japan, the game is still somehow magically selling PS3 hardware units?

Yes, IMO the game's release still has a positive impact on Japanese PS3 sales.

Let me provide another example of a game/project which hasn't even been released. Milo and Natal for the XBox 360, I stated Milo is already a success for Microsoft.

Milo, despite what was shown was fake, caused extreme massive positive media coverage for Microsoft's XBox 360 (unbelievable really). Also fanboys around the world hyped it up as much as they could (free advertising for Microsoft). Of course I think Milo will underdeliver compared to what was promised (so it could have a negative backslash to a much lesser degree as well once released, but overall a big victory for Microsoft which tried hard to undermine Sony's much more real showings, which were set to be the highlight of the event).

So according to your opinion, Japanese Gamer Guy says "I'm not going to buy Final Fantasy XIII, but I will buy a PS3 because the game, that I'm not interested in buying, is currently available on the system."

That's a shade away from saying in a hypothetical situation where NO ONE was buying FFXIII, the game is still moving hardware.

I can't even argue with that kind of logic.

 



MikeB said:

@ greenmedic88

I view the release of Final Fantasy XIII (and release of the slim) as a PS3 turning point for the Japanese market, the PS3 has performed very well in Japan since that game's release. Massive YOY gains.

The PS3 according to trackers has been outselling the Wii for many weeks in a row now.

PS3 selling ahead of Wii the past couple weeks is attributable entirely to Torne, Yakuza 4 and Hokuto Musou respectively.  It also helped that Wii had almost nothing of note all Q1 (it's biggest release was RE DarkSide Chronicles back in January, which sold just half what Umbrella Chronicles did in 2007, but still handily outsold all the Gun Survivors on PS2).

From the week of FFXIII launch though, PS3 has outsold Wii just 6 weeks, while Wii's outsold PS3 for 11 weeks.  Also in just that period, Wii's sold about 200,000 more units than PS3 total in Japan.



greenmedic88 said:
MikeB said:

@ greenmedic88

Sorry Mike, but I have to pull out the actual numbers for FFXIII in Japan here.


I know I look at topics from many different angles, more so than most, so I will try to make the logic as simple as possible.

Why is Final Fantasy so important for Japan, beyond just sales to Final Fantasy fans? (Note that I'm not a Final Fantasy fan at all nor a Gran Turismo fan, despite this I mark them as critical titles)

Final Fantasy is a major popular franchise, its launch was massive in Japan. Mass press coverage puts the PS3 in the spotlight. This is very good for sales of the console beyond just selling consoles to Final Fantasy fans. Can you understand this logic?

To repeat myself verbatim: Basically, you're saying that despite the fact that almost no one is currently buying FFXIII in Japan, the game is still somehow magically selling PS3 hardware units?


it's not, it pretty much caused a 1 week spike which was made extremely frontloaded due to the massive amount of bundles.  If you followed the sales of the PS3 last year it was selling really well after the slim was released, then there was a massive spike for the FF13 release with bundles, then the week after that was pretty much exactly in line with what PS3 would have been without FF13 being there at all going by previous years increases during the holidays. 



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

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lol wow :D ppl seem to dislike the guy a lot for some reason, I'm relatively new so I don't get it and frankly don't care why some are being on the offense from the word get go

Anywho if you made those predictions, well done ;) I'm sure you must have gotten some wrong, especially on very broad ones but that's ok, NO ONE can get them all right, so kiu and ignore the h8rs cuz h8rs gonna h8



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M.U.G.E.N said:
lol wow :D ppl seem to dislike the guy a lot for some reason, I'm relatively new so I don't get it and frankly don't care why some are being on the offense from the word get go

Anywho if you made those predictions, well done ;) I'm sure you must have gotten some wrong, especially on very broad ones but that's ok, NO ONE can get them all right, so kiu and ignore the h8rs cuz h8rs gonna h8

Hes the PS3 version of Selnor.

 

But i must admit, MikeB has gotten alot of predictions right. Good job MikeB.

 



M.U.G.E.N said:
lol wow :D ppl seem to dislike the guy a lot for some reason, I'm relatively new so I don't get it and frankly don't care why some are being on the offense from the word get go

Anywho if you made those predictions, well done ;) I'm sure you must have gotten some wrong, especially on very broad ones but that's ok, NO ONE can get them all right, so kiu and ignore the h8rs cuz h8rs gonna h8


i wouldn't be so quick to defend him if you don't know his post history.  There's a reason why everyone is so edgy, trust me. 



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

Nicely done,my wannabe!



@ Garnett

Hes the PS3 version of Selnor.


Please no...

But i must admit, MikeB has gotten alot of predictions right. Good job MikeB.


Thanks, but that's ironic because Selnor is almost always wrong...



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