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Forums - Sales - MikeB's past predictions

MrNathanDrake said:
Ausfalcon said:
MikeB said:

@ Starcraft

Starcraft (from 2007):
"Honestly, do you actually believe 360 wont see a port of MGS4 in the next 2 yrs? It might come really late, it might come on two discs, it might have frame rate issues but it IS coming. Short of the PS3 shifting 15million consoles this holiday season, the 360 will be running MGS4"

 

MikeB is handing out some good ownage in this thread.

 

I remember when people were even saying MGS4 would be announced for 360 at E3 as recently as a few months ago.

Lol, says Tim_Duncan's 50 millionth alternate account.  Long live PS3 Fanboy Tim_Duncan!



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MikeB said:
@ Ausfalcon

Too bad public discussion on moderation is not allowed there (like most sites). You could have personally emailed them. You wanted a public show (something that as a former mod yourself, you never should have wanted to do).


In the past the website was run less strict, we always provided a clarification why a posting was moderated and personally contacted the offending person.

We regularly polled our members on website policies (you don't allow any criticism). IMO in all those aspects the new team is failing. You yourself hold the policy of posting something entirely wrong and malicious and then end your ranting with stating that further public discussion isn't allowed, but even that was not my main concern as highlighted above. Abuse of moderation powers was just one of my concerns.



So you freely violated the rules at the time of your publicly made moderation complaints (mulitple times) because you claim the rules were different when you were a mod??  Even if thats true that would have nothing to do with the rules at the time.  Also you still did this, despite knowing as a former mod, the mayhem that could ensue from a former mod making a point of breaking the rules in front of *everybody*?  Should all users at all sites just get to pick and choose which rules they want to follow?  Or does only MikeB get to do that?
Is this why you are telling fellow vgchartz members what you "expect" of their behavior, meanwhile you mock someone like billsalias, a user here being very cordial and patient with you, you come on here drunk insulting folks, etc?  From observation so far I think you get off on pushing the limits at places and seeing how passive aggressive you can get.


Well he's a New Yorker too and you guys had meetings, he once was a vivid Pegasos/MorphOS dealer and you show some common trades.


The population of New York State is around 19.5 million, so thats pretty meaningless (trying to imply that hence we would know each other).    Thats basically as worthless a stance as if I would suppose that you knew every guy into Amigas or PS3 in your home country of The Netherlands (approx. population 16.5 million), let alone to divine if you ever had meetings with certain folks or not.  I have never met that person.  And you continue to ignore the obvious that fairlanefastback is not any sort of ardent MorphOS supporter.  But for some reason you seem adamant at wanting to paint me as having some long term grudge against you (I don't have one, sorry) and you feel free to be very loose with the truth and try to invent some sort of history that simply is not there.



Currently playing:  PC:  Wolfenstein  PS2:  Final Fantasy X  PS3: All-Pro Football 2K8 Wii:  Force Unleashed  PSP:  God of War: CoO Xbox 360:  Gears of War 2  

Most anticipated game:  Dragon Age Origins (PC)

MikeB said:
Ausfalcon said:
MikeB said:

@ Starcraft

Starcraft (from 2007):
"Honestly, do you actually believe 360 wont see a port of MGS4 in the next 2 yrs? It might come really late, it might come on two discs, it might have frame rate issues but it IS coming. Short of the PS3 shifting 15million consoles this holiday season, the 360 will be running MGS4"

How about a link.  Google does not come up with this, nor does the Search site feature on VGChartz.

I PMed you the link in question. This thread wasn't meant to single out anyone specifically. I simply addressed people like you and starcraft because you felt the need to out personal attacks. The OP does not point fingers towards specific site members other than myself.

Thank you.  Now, we will see what his response is.  Somehow I think he will be less likely to take the MikeB approach (cut and run from the thread and/or ignore it and/or try to explain it away even if a quote is looked at in context).

And BTW, even if you are right on this, it does not make you have the overall less fanboy history magically.  But fair is fair, and some of us actually try to be honorable in such a regard.  So lets see what his response is.



Currently playing:  PC:  Wolfenstein  PS2:  Final Fantasy X  PS3: All-Pro Football 2K8 Wii:  Force Unleashed  PSP:  God of War: CoO Xbox 360:  Gears of War 2  

Most anticipated game:  Dragon Age Origins (PC)

MikeB said:
loy310 said:
How about some more prediction MikeB?


Much bigger technical gaps regarding future PS3 and XBox 360 exclusives than we have seen so far for the years ahead of us.

I also think the XBox 360 will not last that long anymore. So far Microsoft seems to have sacrificed a lot of its PC gaming resources to benefit the 360 (many Microsoft published exclusives releasing much later or even not at all for Windows). I think DVD and other older 360 technology will be holding back PC gaming too much in the years ahead of us, PC makers (and Microsoft) will want to see gamers upgrade (towards newer hardware and operating system) and with XBox 360 lead development this will IMO hold this back.

I also expect a (cheaper) PS3 to hold up pretty well technically with the new XBox once it launches.

People will be dissapointed by what was promised for Natal.

 

 

I agree with this 100%

 

NATAL will be a failure, and putting all their eggs into this basket will hurt 360. They won't price cut now because they're waiting for NATAL to "re-release" the 360, but the whole NATAL thing will fail.

PS3 will quickly catch up to the 360 in sales, and even surpass it around the end of 2010 fiscal year.

 

Like you said, the technical gap is going to widen between PS3 and 360, as evident by Killzone2 and Uncharted 2 already this year... and only going to get worse for the 360 side of things.

 

MS will quickly get out another system... the NextBox 720 or whatever they call it... while PS3 will stick to the 10 year plan and not release any new systems for awhile. 

 

Developers will stick with PS3 because next-gen will cost way too much to develop for.

 

 

I see it this way for MS:

1. Stick with 360 and watch the PS3 continue to close the gap and eventually surpass it in sales.

2. Make a new next-gen system, and compete against a massive PS3 user base with a huge library and cheaper price point.

 



MikeB, what format do you think the next Xbox will be??? Certainly DVD won't be able to hold enough data.... do you think they go BluRay ?



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MrNathanDrake said:
MikeB, what format do you think the next Xbox will be??? Certainly DVD won't be able to hold enough data.... do you think they go BluRay ?

Yes, I think so and yes developers were already scratching their heads when they knew they were stuck to only 6.8 GB discs on the 360. Microsoft already promised Blu-Ray support for the XBox 360 if there was demand. There's no question about this demand existing today, but the main reason why I think they haven't delivered on this promise so far is that the extra cost of an additional Blu-Ray drive would highlight even more the great deal the PS3 offers (value for money).

But for the long run, Blu-Ray demand and content has already risen sharply and I think they can't afford to be left behind.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

MikeB said:
MrNathanDrake said:
MikeB, what format do you think the next Xbox will be??? Certainly DVD won't be able to hold enough data.... do you think they go BluRay ?

Yes, I think so and yes developers were already scratching their heads when they knew they were stuck to only 6.8 GB discs on the 360. Microsoft already promised Blu-Ray support for the XBox 360 if there was demand. There's no question about this demand existing today, but the main reason why I think they haven't delivered on this promise so far is that the extra cost of an additional Blu-Ray drive would highlight even more the great deal the PS3 offers (value for money).

But for the long run, Blu-Ray demand and content has already risen sharply and I think they can't afford to be left behind.

Where is a link to this supposed statement of MS promising Blu-Ray support for the 360 if demand was high enough?  And links to devs claiming 6.8GB would not be enough before the 360 launch?

Also, there are limitless other options they could use for next gen games, such as Flash, HD-DVD, digital download, holographic discs, or some other new proprietary format released over the next few years.  And DVD really isn't that big of a factor.  All you have to do is be creative, much like with the Wii developers.  Unfortunately Sony abides by the flawed concept of "bigger = better" and the devs are lazier, less creative because of it (for the most part, there are obvious devs that exceed on the PS3 such as Naughty Dog).

Also, Natal will not be a failure.  The hype for it literally overshadowed everything else out there for the month after E3.  I didn't even see one bit showing Sony's new motion tech.  Natal will seal PS3's defeat this generation.  Not that the PS3 would ever catch up in overall WW sales anyway.  The PS3 is doomed to 3rd place no matter what happens this generation.



Hats off to MikeB, his predictions by the large have been very good.
Though personally I dont think the ps3 will sell, 140million, it has a shot at 100million though, also xbox360 will sell more than 40million.

If you want to complain about some bad predictions focus on those that have made some really bad ones,
eg
wii = 750million sold lifetime!!! classic
or conduit, punchout etc easily selling many millions.



All bow to me the VGChartz current reigning 3DS prediction champion 

 Bet with tbone51: Pokeon X & pokemon Y will not sell more than 8 million in 2013

 jarrod said:The Xbox360 or ps3 will not sell more than 75million units

July 2009 daveJ saidTrue the wii has a large lead now but by 2017 the most likely result will be 1. ps3 2. xbox360 3. wii <-- wii's successor launched in 2011 effectively killing sales of the wii

 2009 daveJ said: The wii will not break the 50% marketshare barrier it will go below the 40% marketshare barrier though in the future. VGChartz members: Impossible, youre an idiot that knows nothing about sales

@ nightsurge

Where is a link to this supposed statement of MS promising Blu-Ray support for the 360 if demand was high enough?


One example:

"It should be consumer choice; and if that's the way they vote, that's something we'll have to consider," Albert Penello, group marketing manager for Xbox hardware said when asked whether Microsoft would support a Blu-ray DVD accessory in the event that HD-DVD failed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSN0851332620080108

Microsoft execs on various accounts claimed the XBox 360 was risk free as its adoption of add-ons makes the XBox 360 more flexible, being able to provide a Blu-Ray drive add-on. The PS3 would however be screwed if Blu-Ray failed as a movie format.

Of course, most really don't understand their reasoning that if Blu-Ray would fail as a movie format why the PS3 could not be successful with Blu-Ray as a games format (for which higher capacity discs is very beneficial), like the Wii doesn't even playback DVD. Also most don't seem to think the XBox 360 provides more freedom with regard to movie disc formats than the PS3, either you stick to DVD which the PS3 also playbacks or even a PS2 or you invest extra into a failed movie format. Not at all more or better choice than the PS3 provides.

Funnily enough many supporters of the idea above claimed that most PS3 gamers aren't nor never would be interested in movie playback and vice versa.

And links to devs claiming 6.8GB would not be enough before the 360 launch?


For example:

"According to Game Informer, nearly every developer they talked to at X05 expressed difficulties fitting their launch titles onto a single disc."

http://www.joystiq.com/2005/12/04/certain-highly-anticipated-xbox-360-title-filling-four-discs/

All you have to do is be creative, much like with the Wii developers. Unfortunately Sony abides by the flawed concept of "bigger = better" and the devs are lazier, less creative because of it (for the most part, there are obvious devs that exceed on the PS3 such as Naughty Dog).


When it comes to storage, yes bigger is better.

High quality textures and high quality 7.1 audio eats up space fast. On DVD for a top quality production you usually have to make significant storage related sacrifices, either lower quality textures or re-usage of data resulting in less varierty and flexibility. For certain types of games (like for example the GTA series) disc swapping isn't much of an option and not something developers want to have to deal with in general.

This has little to do with actual coding talents, it's more assets related. Like having very little storage on a photocamera, you will have to opt for lower quality shots to be stored to be able to take photos.

didn't even see one bit showing Sony's new motion tech.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B4i2LfQAb0



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

The big post does not hide what so far appears to be a  lie.  You said:

"Microsoft already promised Blu-Ray support for the XBox 360 if there was demand."

Your quote from Microsoft does not support that statement.  Its says they'd consider support depending on consumer market choice.  They did not "promise" support if MikeB thought there was enough demand.

And you have the audacity to complain about others making unsupported definitive statements.  You are getting sloppier Mike, usually you don't do that so close in a thread after accusing someone else of the same thing.

If you think they've implied such over time over various statements then just say that.  Jeez!



Currently playing:  PC:  Wolfenstein  PS2:  Final Fantasy X  PS3: All-Pro Football 2K8 Wii:  Force Unleashed  PSP:  God of War: CoO Xbox 360:  Gears of War 2  

Most anticipated game:  Dragon Age Origins (PC)