MikeB said:
I also think the XBox 360 will not last that long anymore. So far Microsoft seems to have sacrificed a lot of its PC gaming resources to benefit the 360 (many Microsoft published exclusives releasing much later or even not at all for Windows). I think DVD and other older 360 technology will be holding back PC gaming too much in the years ahead of us, PC makers (and Microsoft) will want to see gamers upgrade (towards newer hardware and operating system) and with XBox 360 lead development this will IMO hold this back. I also expect a (cheaper) PS3 to hold up pretty well technically with the new XBox once it launches. People will be dissapointed by what was promised for Natal.
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I agree with this 100%
NATAL will be a failure, and putting all their eggs into this basket will hurt 360. They won't price cut now because they're waiting for NATAL to "re-release" the 360, but the whole NATAL thing will fail.
PS3 will quickly catch up to the 360 in sales, and even surpass it around the end of 2010 fiscal year.
Like you said, the technical gap is going to widen between PS3 and 360, as evident by Killzone2 and Uncharted 2 already this year... and only going to get worse for the 360 side of things.
MS will quickly get out another system... the NextBox 720 or whatever they call it... while PS3 will stick to the 10 year plan and not release any new systems for awhile.
Developers will stick with PS3 because next-gen will cost way too much to develop for.
I see it this way for MS:
1. Stick with 360 and watch the PS3 continue to close the gap and eventually surpass it in sales.
2. Make a new next-gen system, and compete against a massive PS3 user base with a huge library and cheaper price point.
