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Forums - Sales - MikeB's past predictions

Yes, my feeling in a nutshell is that Sony have made a very poor business model from the PS3, but as a consumer I like it's tech and it's games best meaning the first part becomes almost irrelevant (in the PS3's case, it will still get alot of 3rd party support).

The more potential thing revolves around the PS3s often hyped up technical specs and the belief that better things will come of them. This is the case Imo, look at Killzone 2. Sure, some will say that it took a long time and alot of money but I still think the PS3s hardware can give gaming advantages, however to most people the advantages don't mean much.



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Regarding the Gears II to Killzone II comparison... The difference is that we don't have the same offerings coming from Microsoft than from Sony. They decided to kill most of their first party studios, and they don't spend the same time or money than Sony does, so we don't really know what the X360 is capable of in the technological point of view. Comparing a game made with the Unreal Engine 3 to a game with a custom made engine, with much more budget and time of development, is not the best way to check what are capable of the respective consoles. The Forza 3 - GT5 will be a fairer comparison, taking into consideration the different budgets and time of development.

It's a marketing decision made by Sony, they decided to spend a lot of money in internal studios that make great technological demos (and some of them are great games at the same time) Microsoft decided to give to the third party studios more room to breathe, leaving them more market share and more earnings. Different decisions that give you different results, and in this generation, better 3rd party suport to the XBox360.



I don't see Wii losing so much momentum to have to worry, Nintendo never cut its price yet and it's still first, suffering a slump a lot smaller than that the crisis could cause. So about this prediction I don't agree with Mike pretending he was substantially right.
But about PS3 Slim and price cut, I remember a lot of people swearing on their moms' heads Sony couldn't afford either.
And I remember I was wrong predicting a PS3 small price cut before last Easter and a bigger one this Autumn, it looks like Sony accepted sluggish sales until September to delay any cut as much as possible.
Another thing, a lot of people still strongly think that although iSuppli estimated a ~40 loss for Sony on each PS3 during October 2008, when it was priced $399, it can't limit losses to an amount not bigger now pricing it at $299 and with Slim version savings. I could rebuild now my current desktop PC with more powerful CPU, bigger HD and RAM and still paying them less, shouldn't Sony have even bigger savings, given that it doesn't fit more powerful components in the PS3 (only the HDD is bigger, but a 120GB 2.5" HDD now is dirt cheap), but only die-shrunk ones, even less expensive?
Obviously if a $299 PS3 loses little, a $299 XB360 should earn a little, it's quite logic...
About lifetime sales: it depends on lifespan of each console and also on whether big emerging countries', like China and India, middle classes will have their buying power increased enough to meet current gen consoles prices before this gen ends, should this happen, each console would see sales now simply unthinkable, but this applies also to XB360, so Mike's would be wrong on his XB360 doom prediction, just like Sony haters would be wrong on PS3 doom ones. Obviously Wii haters will be proven wrong whatever happens, but this doesn't concern Mike, it's obvious he likes PS3 more, but he doesn't look a rabid Wii hater...
Nice to see, though, that Malstrom was even more wrong in his hardcore doom rants, and I rotfled when he backpedaled and started pretending wiiners are hardcore



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


CGI-Quality said:
Kynes said:
mrstickball said:
The Truth said:
@ dtewi

In a year your argument is going to fail. With Sony motion control from a tech standpoint beating out the Wii controls and with Natal aiming to exceed that further, the Wii will truly be, from a tech standpoint pathetic.

And from a developer standpoint, the Wii will still be the go-to device for 3rd parties that aren't willing to spend $20 million+ on a game.

Just because the tech is nice, doesn't mean that will entice every developer to build for the system. The Wii is cheap to dev for, offers decent motion controls, and (best of all) offers a platform with more than twice the user penetration of the PS3.

And that's what makes the PS3 pathetic. Why would you really want to develop an exclusive title for the worst-selling console that is also the most expensive to build games on? Economics trump tech, which is why the PS3 has been languishing in 3rd place, and continuing to burn holes in Sony's slimming pocket.

Time has shown us that the best tech isn't always the winner. The PS1 didn't have the best tech compared to the N64 or Saturn. But what it offered were unique economic characteristics (cheap development, good but not perfect tech, and a killer price point) that led to it's success. Sony has none of those.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!

He calls a console pathetic... How does his post make him a winner?

 

From a developer point of view. "Why would you really want to develop an exclusive title for the worst-selling console that is also the most expensive to build games on? Economics trump tech, which is why the PS3 has been languishing in 3rd place, and continuing to burn holes in Sony's slimming pocket."

Don't take things out of context, so you can complain about them.



CGI, English is not my mother language, so I'm not going to play a game of rethorics with you



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CGI-Quality said:
Kynes said:

CGI, English is not my mother language, so I'm not going to play a game of rethorics with you

Don't worry about it bro, it was just a simple question. I'm not trying to insult you here, it's all good.

It's no problem. I'm only afirming that it's a game in which I have a big disadvantage, so it can be funny to play but we know the result in advance. Sometimes a small argument can be enjoyable.



kowenicki said:
@cgi

I think you are a bit of a wordsmith.... you like to duel with words... well thats my take anyway. Its not an insult.... more of a compliment if anything.

Many people here can't string more than a few words together in a coherent fashion.

HOW DARE erm...

 

Woof!



kowenicki said:
@CGI

Serious kowenicki appears....

People here do have me wrong I think, they just dont get me.

I mostly just like a really good arguement. The rest of the time I just like to stop people getting away with spouting opinions as facts... or lies as facts. I enjoy pointing out the error of their ways.. but its all in fun really.

That is easily a full time job in here!



We shouldn't forget the emotional investment! That pieces of supreme technology are much more than the plastic and transistors they are made of. They are the dreams of thousands of engineers and programmers made reality, thousands of man-years invested in creating the most enjoyable experience possible.

(I'm going to cry...)

Interwebz is serious business.



Kynes said:
We shouldn't forget the emotional investment! That pieces of supreme technology are much more than the plastic and transistors they are made of. They are the dreams of thousands of engineers and programmers made reality, thousands of man-years invested in creating the most enjoyable experience possible.

(I'm going to cry...)

Interwebz is serious business.

Wow, inspired, indeed.

If I eventually buy a Wii, may I have a ghost inside it? 

 

Edit: No, a poltergeist like inside Windows wouldn't be the same   

 



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!