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Forums - Sales - MikeB's past predictions

It would of been nice, MikeB if you:

Participated in any predictions based on quantitative data and not predictions. Everyone has made good and bad predictions.
Participated in any prediction leagues
Participated in any data discussions on JP/PAL/US data

You've only participated in threads of your choosing, and stated that you've made 6-7 good predictions. Great for you. How about some LTD threads? How about some weekly sales threads that are the crux of why this site exists? I think that it is incredibly awful of you to create a thread dedicated to your predictions coming true. A true analyst or market visionary would do no such thing.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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libellule said:
hum, quite good prediction indeed

also dont be affraid of the people that dislike you

I remember how u said PS3 > 360 technically and how U2 and KZ2 have proven you were totally right

good jo

I think rereading my comments with hindsight, they usually seem far less extreme. For example this quote from early 2007:

"To use the PS3 fully to its potential will take many years as the platform has a lot of headroom for developers to tap into. Motorstorm and Resistance are two examples which currently already use the SPEs. I know Resistance doesn't offer on par graphics with Gears of War yet, but according to Insomniac games that's mainly because the engine did not yet support texture streaming, which will be included in their later games."

Comments like these would set off some people back then, but now such comments wouldn't spark a significant reaction from most vocal people I think.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

mrstickball said:
It would of been nice, MikeB if you:

Participated in any predictions based on quantitative data and not predictions. Everyone has made good and bad predictions.
Participated in any prediction leagues
Participated in any data discussions on JP/PAL/US data

You've only participated in threads of your choosing, and stated that you've made 6-7 good predictions. Great for you. How about some LTD threads? How about some weekly sales threads that are the crux of why this site exists? I think that it is incredibly awful of you to create a thread dedicated to your predictions coming true. A true analyst or market visionary would do no such thing.

I have stated anticipated LTD figures, but they (still) generate a lot of heat. I don't think I have to repeat them over and over again. Maybe in a couple of years I'll re-quote them to see if I was accurate or not.

I am not a "true analyst" (as if people like Pachter have such a great track record....), nor a "market visionary" by profession, I am a physical therapist.

I am more interested in technology from a hobby perspective.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

MikeB said:

I think rereading my comments with hindsight, they usually seem far less extreme. For example this quote from early 2007:

"To use the PS3 fully to its potential will take many years as the platform has a lot of headroom for developers to tap into. Motorstorm and Resistance are two examples which currently already use the SPEs. I know Resistance doesn't offer on par graphics with Gears of War yet, but according to Insomniac games that's mainly because the engine did not yet support texture streaming, which will be included in their later games."

Comments like these would set off some people back then, but now such comments wouldn't spark a significant reaction from most vocal people I think.

With no link to the thread in question, it gives the impression you're trying to hide something.

Which could be that that quote from you did in fact not spark any kind of reaction or seem extreme to any of the users in that thread.

*checks*

No responses to that statement, which you say set off some people back then.



This is invisible text!

Mike, I despised the xbots personally attacking you and this just proves how wrong they were.
Keep up the good work!



 

It is better to die on one's feet

then live on one's knees

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@ Killergran

Most my comments were in similar style back then focussing on technical hurdles and potential, here are some better examples:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=184843



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

Wait? Isn't that... NeoGAF? You're making a thread on VGChartz because people on NeoGAF thought you were extreme?

You can't be serious.



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@ Killergran

I am not going to point to specific site members, regulars and they themselves know who they are,

Technical discussions regarding the Cell (my main interest) didn't differ too much on here compared to there (IMO I as good as always stay calm, even when attacked for my perspectives and opinions).

Example thread (the linked poster isn't a troll, he seems a knowledgeable programmer):
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1461746



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

Hmmm, as technical discussions regarding the Cell are your main interest, maybe you can explain us what Tim Sweeney, one of those lazy developers, M$Bot, said in a keynote at High Performance Graphics 2009 ( http://graphics.cs.williams.edu/archive/SweeneyHPG2009/TimHPG2009.pdf pgs 70 and 71 ):

"Developers must be willing to sacrifice performance in order to gain productivity.

...

Easier hardware beats faster hardware!"

and

"If it costs X (time, money, pain) to develop an efficient single-threaded algorithm, then…

- Multithreaded version costs 2X
- PlayStation 3 Cell version costs 5X
...

Over 2X is uneconomical for most software companies!

This is an argument against:

- Hardware that requires difficult programming techniques
- Non-unified memory architectures"

It seems that your comments about the PS3 architecture confronts those of every 3rd party. What can you tell us about it?



@ Kynes

Good developers like Crytek shouldn't run into too many problems.

Tim is a developer for Epic Games, which has some exclusive deals with Microsoft. Their game engine was enhanced with the help of Sony programmers, having just completed Bioshock a few weeks ago, I think their game engine runs quite nicely on the PS3 nowadays, but in the past they got sued for lack of effort.

One thing is as good as sure, once you have taken the hurdle of modernizing your game engine there isn't a way back. Your game engine will not worsen, but will normally only improve in course of time.

They did state they don't want to enhance their game engine too much to take advantage of the Cell's SPEs in the past. But I think in course of time with others putting more effort into developing for the PS3 architecture they can't afford to stay behind too much (or suffer from looking incompetent or uncommited to a major gaming platform a lot of people prefer).

The PS3 isn't hard to develop for at all, but using Microsoft recommended high level inefficient development approaches can result into significant porting issues (like some buddy developers also had to suffer from while porting to other operating systems on similar or to lower powered more efficient hardware).



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales