In Japan Final Fantasy X sold 1,906,152 copies its first week according to VGChartz and PS2 hardware jumped to 175,118 for the week!

Since the PS2 hardware was actually under 5 million at that point, being roughly 4.9 million i would imagine that Final Fantasy XIII should either do the same as X (since they are both going to be the first Final Fantasy on new hardware and this always results in higher sales) or better since the PS3 audience in Japan are starved of good and highly known JRPG's

I would predict 2.2 million sold first week in Japan with PS3 sales lifting to 150,000 consoles sold! This is all based on how the Slim will raise the installbase in Japan due to the price-drop also

2mil.

I'm not so sure you can do a direct comparison of systems sold to sales of a game like final fantasy xiii. While there were 5million more ps2s, the ps3 is at 3million and with the slim release will surely be gunning for 4million..

I'd think that sales will probably be less than ffx, but not by much. Of the 5million PS2 owners in japan, how reasonable do you think it is to sasume that around 1million of them were casual gamers who didn't grab games like ffxiii? The ps2 was basically the wii of its time...

Not sure, I wouldnt underestimate the power of a real final fantasy title...we've been starved for so long. I predict the game itself will push around 500,000 PS3s, possibly 800,000 and will sell just under 2 million first week, but that is an absolutely high end in my mind, I just don't underestimate the game, its much more popular than dragon quest.

Yeah i guess, but we can hope anyway lol

What will help the game most is that it is the first flagship FF title on current gen consoles. What matters more than install base in market saturation which is why FFXII did not outsell its PS3 brothers. After the amount of money spent on the game I'm sure SE will advertise the game until everyone is sick of it. Sony will make sure they help as well because it will sell a large amount of consoles.

I predict 80k PS3 consoles sold the week FFXIII releases if the release is in December. Hope FFXIII, GT5 and Yakuza 4 in 2010 sell well.

Software: 2 million, give or take 200,000
Hardware: 100,000 units, max.

2M first week
3M lifetime

I don't think that anyone can compare the situation between last gen and this one.

I mean, who knows if the PS2 got to 5 mil within a year because of the release of major-selling game FFX (and price), and not the other way around? (that FFX sold a lot because of big userbase).
If that was the reason you can expect PS3 sells to spike drasticaly (I'm sure i've made a spelling mistake).
Look at Final Fantasy XIII's demo debut week, PS3 sells got from 15,500 the week earlier to 60,000, a spike of almost 400%!
I think that the full game can quadruple that precentage, since, well, demos that are bought usually sell less than the full game (look at GT4 demo and GT4 sells).

Now, the last thing that we need to know before we make proper predictions is the effect of the Slim, and who knows hot much it will widen the PS3 userbase in Japan?

You can't, and so you have to use the current generation's patterns. And the patterns look grim.

There will be no massive spike in sales. If you look at the charts, even the mighty Halo 3 only managed to account for maybe 250,000 extra units worldwide before fading right back into the 360's normal growth curve. If a far more mainstream title that FFXIII can't move more than that worldwide, then FFXIII has no chance of doing it in Japan alone. My 100,000 figure is, frankly, quite generous given what we've seen before.

Of course, Halo 3 probably moved more units than the 250,000-unit surge, and the same is true of FFXIII, but in both cases these units were already purchased long before the game was released. That's just how people have been buying HD consoles this gen: they "invest" in consoles for the sake of games that won't be out for years, and tide themselves over with other games until then. This is great for early console sales, but it also means that the era of the "system seller" as we knew it is over. The games that sell consoles do so long before their actual release, and so the surges can no longer be tracked.

This is probably also true of the Wii, but it hasn't yet been possible to measure: the last time a huge game came out systems were still selling out globally, and so there was no way for hardware sales to increase even if the game might have otherwise spiked such a surge. NSMBWii and Metroid:Other M will probably be the first real tests the Wii has in this arena.

Im saying were going to see a FFX situation on our hands.

FFX: 1.9M first week, Then 254k second week by the third week it went into the 2M mark.

I predict that FFXIII will sell
1.7M first week, 230k second week, 80k third week. By the third or fourth week the game will reach the 2M point. Also by that point and time I expect the PS3 to be at a 4.5-5M userbase by the time Dec rolls around. When FFXIII releases expect it to get a nice bump that might equal or exceed 200k at the time of release, based on hype for the game in japan and if Sony actually does some friggin marketing.

Also if GT5 releases this year before or after FFXIII expect PS3's Sals for Japan to get a slight bump up to about 60k-80k(GT isnt that big in Japan since the last two full games didn't go past 2M.) but PS3s world wide sales to climb by about 4.5M-5.5M if my predictions are anywhere near accurate, bringing in the total to 27.84M-28.74M by the end of 2009