it should on the 2nd day :D

they don't see it as a heavy system seller like Halo 3, that's why they wouldn't put so much into marketing. They're playing to the current 360 crowd, majority of which know about the game anyway.

Halo 1 sold well.
Halo 2 sold well.
Halo 3 sold well.
Halo ODST will tank.


Logic.

when people say it won't do that well, obviously they are talking about for a halo game.  So basically 3 million sales would still be a bomb.  Obviously it doesn't have the same marketing budget as Halo 3.

Millions upon millions are still playing Halo 3 online, and ODST is being advertised there. There's no way ODST will sell poorly. If HALF the online players of Halo 3 bought ODST, then what's that, 4 million sales?

It's really not a standalone game.

Apologies if already covered, but I didn't read through all of the previous posts.

ODST is an expansion pack right? What is the normal attach rate for an expansion pack? 30%, 20% 50%? There have been enough PC games with subsequent expansion packs that it should be pretty easy to predict the minimum sales ODST is likely to get. You should probably then take account of the Halo devotion coefficient (possibly 10%) and then you will come up with an objective benchmark figure for what successful sales for the ODST expansion pack would be.

I think if ODST has a Halo 3 attach rate of 40%+ then this will mean great success for the game. If it gets ~30% then this would be meeting expectations and hence a sales success. ~20% would be below expectations, but a reasonable result nonetheless. 10% would be rather a disappointing performance.

But even at 10% that still makes the expansion pack a million seller, and a money maker for Bungie and MS. Form a business perspective (i.e. will it make a profit?) ODST is almost a guaranteed win. Much more so than releasing a new unproven IP.

its Halo, its bound to sell well...

ill probably check it out, if only to see how good/bad it is.

BOTH Bungie and M$ have stated that while ODST started off as an expansion, it has expanded in scope to a full game...so NO, it's not an expansion...see for me, an expansion is a game that REQUIRES the original game content, which is expanded upon...the DLC for Fallout - expansion, the ballad of Gay Tony for GTA - expansion...a stand alone, completely new campaign with difference game play mechanics and coming out 2 years later Halo game is NOT an expansion...unless you mean an expansion of the Halo universe.  I'll go on record to say Halo 3: ODST will sell 2.5-3 million on day one...and maybe even 4 million in week 1...if that's failure...I think people need to stop using that sliding scale that ONLY Xbox 360 games seem to be on.