"Microsoft anticipating poor sales of Halo 3: ODST?"

[binary solo]

Apologies if already covered, but I didn't read through all of the previous posts.

ODST is an expansion pack right? What is the normal attach rate for an expansion pack? 30%, 20% 50%? There have been enough PC games with subsequent expansion packs that it should be pretty easy to predict the minimum sales ODST is likely to get. You should probably then take account of the Halo devotion coefficient (possibly 10%) and then you will come up with an objective benchmark figure for what successful sales for the ODST expansion pack would be.

I think if ODST has a Halo 3 attach rate of 40%+ then this will mean great success for the game. If it gets ~30% then this would be meeting expectations and hence a sales success. ~20% would be below expectations, but a reasonable result nonetheless. 10% would be rather a disappointing performance.

But even at 10% that still makes the expansion pack a million seller, and a money maker for Bungie and MS. Form a business perspective (i.e. will it make a profit?) ODST is almost a guaranteed win. Much more so than releasing a new unproven IP.