I guess it's true if you say it.

Any more input from anyone? Just to clarify, I'm asking what you think would happen to the PS3 if Sony didn't announce a price cut OR a slim at EITHER GamesCon or TGS?

I'm guessing you really are asking "what would happen to the PS3 if there isn't a price cut/slim this year", because these don't have to be announced at the big games shows.

In that case the PS3 would sell even a bit (20-30%) less than last year and Sony would have no realistic chance of reaching their shipping target for their fiscal year (13m PS3s).

Alright then. This is, of course, completely hypothetical, since it's an impossible scenario.

Holiday sales would be abysmal. Slightly above the 2006 holiday. The 360 and Wii would destroy it in sales. The 360 would continue to outsell it until the end of the generation, or until the price cut and Slim. If there was a price cut on 1st January, the PS3 would start outselling the 360 then, but by then the gap would be at some 12 million units and it would just be too late to even get CLOSE. And soon after that, the 360 would have a price cut and be ahead in sales pretty much until the end of the gen. Third party support would begin to be cut, and if the PS4 was not at LEAST as successful as the PS1 and PS2, SCE would be gone.

A little overdramatised, but you get the idea. To summarise, BAD THINGS. VERY BAD THINGS.

Sales wise, the same thing that would happen if they would announce the Slim or a pricecut, minus the sales spike on its release.

It's hardly impossible. We still only have circumstantial evidence for a slim and Sony has repeatedly denied a price cut. Granted, the circumstantial evidence is piling up, and hopefully, there's something behind it, but it's still not very concrete, especially considering Sony won't even comment on it and is dismissing it as rumors and speculation.

We've had LOADS of rumours of slims. From pretty much every country in the world. Sony predicted a 30% increase in sales, and they're not confirming it because then sales would drop like a rock until the Slim released.