mendozahotness said: yo_john117 said: It goes both ways...Tons of people over estimated and under estimated. This is true, so it's a good thing i tallied before posting, here were my findings: Official Results Overestimated/ Underestimated   Uncharted 2 = 18 / 29 God of War 3 = 31 / 11 Gran Turismo 5 = 35 / 3 *** Corrected Totals Overestimated/ Underestimated 84/ 43 Final Result: 41 overestimated surplus   This doesn't include guesses which were correct by being in range (4.5-5 million for example) or correct within 200,000. Personally I feel really bad for the GT5 underachievers who were mocked for their guesses, but still closer by far then the majority of other guesses.

It doesn't work that way because GT5 and GOW3 are still selling great right now....and you know Uncharted 2 still has some life left in it.

yo_john117 said: It doesn't work that way because GT5 and GOW3 are still selling great right now....and you know Uncharted 2 still has some life left in it.

But they still are overestimated right now.

It's crow time until proven otherwise. You can't have it both ways. Maybe in 5 years the GT5/gow faithfuls can serve crow, but it looks like they'll be coughing feathers until then, because, right now they've failed to live up to the majority of this topics expectations.

mendozahotness said: yo_john117 said: It doesn't work that way because GT5 and GOW3 are still selling great right now....and you know Uncharted 2 still has some life left in it. But they still are overestimated right now. It's crow time until proven otherwise. You can't have it both ways. Maybe in 5 years the GT5/gow faithfuls can serve crow, but it looks like they'll be coughing feathers until then, because, right now they've failed to live up to the majority of this topics expectations.

so much fail

you can't 'over/under'-estimate anything 'now' UNLESS those who made the predictions said they will do xx numbers by this date. your whole attempt is fail, it lacks any common sense

mendozahotness said: yo_john117 said: It doesn't work that way because GT5 and GOW3 are still selling great right now....and you know Uncharted 2 still has some life left in it. But they still are overestimated right now. It's crow time until proven otherwise. You can't have it both ways. Maybe in 5 years the GT5/gow faithfuls can serve crow, but it looks like they'll be coughing feathers until then, because, right now they've failed to live up to the majority of this topics expectations.

You do realize what LIFETIME predictions are? They are predictions for WHEN THE GAMES STOP SELLING. They are not predictions for how much the game will sell today. No when predicted the sales to July 31st 2011. They predicted the sales for when those games are done selling. So no, people didn't overstimated as much as you make it out. If you can find me one prediction that says 'sales until July 31st 2011' then you'll have a point.

That's about as stupid as someone predicting 10m sales for Halo Reach LT and then having someone say 'you overestimated because it hasn't reached 10m yet. That's stupid because the prediction was for LT.

CGI-Quality said: How so when the predictions speak for lifetime totals?

If you'd like to define lifetime?

Is it as long as the game is sold? As long as the copy exists? When did it's "life" start? How long after a games sales slows to a grinding halt is it's life over. Does a remake count?

Regardless, at this stage in the games lifetime, you should be eating crow. You can stop if it hits 10 million.

Jay520 said: They predicted the sales for when those games are done selling. So no, people didn't overstimated as much as you make it out.If you can find me one prediction that says 'sales until July 31st 2011' then you'll have a point.

Likewise you have no evidence to say these games will actually sell that much. Keep waiting is not an option. Just crow, or no crow. It's mostly crow right now.

Jay520 said: That's about as stupid as someone predicting 10m sales for Halo Reach LT and then having someone say 'you overestimated because it hasn't reached 10m yet. That's stupid because the prediction was for LT.

It hasn't sold 10m. So crow. If it does, no crow. Your paradigm is not very good. Substituting the game doesn't affect the prediction being incorrect.

CGI-Quality said: This is just getting pedantic now. Anyone following sales knows lifetime indicates when the game stops selling (or comes to a crawl). None of the games in question have reached that point, making your entire argument pointless.

All those games have come to a crawl. Especially with the average estimates and what they have left to go. Do you believe in miracles?

CGI-Quality said:   Also, point out where I said GT5 would do 10 million in just 8 months and you'd have an argument worth following.

If you predicted GT5 would do 10 million and it hasn't (which it hasn't), that makes your prediction incorrect. If your prediction is incorrect, crow is what's for dinner.

It's kinda funny that this topic gets bumped for the slightest underestimate, but you point out that the overestimates are even further off and wham, defense.

mendozahotness said: Jay520 said: They predicted the sales for when those games are done selling. So no, people didn't overstimated as much as you make it out.If you can find me one prediction that says 'sales until July 31st 2011' then you'll have a point. Likewise you have no evidence to say these games will actually sell that much. Keep waiting is not an option. Just crow, or no crow. It's mostly crow right now. Jay520 said: That's about as stupid as someone predicting 10m sales for Halo Reach LT and then having someone say 'you overestimated because it hasn't reached 10m yet. That's stupid because the prediction was for LT. It hasn't sold 10m. So crow. If it does, no crow. Your paradigm is not very good. Substituting the game doesn't affect the prediction being incorrect.

Uhh yes I do, I have evidence that shows if a game is still selling at a steady pace, then it is possible to tell how much it will sell in the next 4 - 5 years. And all the games list are still selling at a steady pace which logically means they will eventually reach most of the predictions in the thread. Anyone with a basic understanding of sales trends knows that.

As for Reach. It's not a matter of IF it does, because it WILL do 10m. It's guaranteed. We know that by looking at the current sales of the game. We can clearly see what the game will and won't reach. Reach WILL cross 10m in it's Lifetime. The 10m LT prediction IS right. And if you don't understand that, then there's no reason debating with you.

Again those predictions are for when the games stop selling. That means once the games start sellingl

Jay520 said:  The 10m LT prediction IS right. And if you don't understand that, then there's no reason debating with you. Again those predictions are for when the games stop selling. That means once the games start sellingl <100 units a week. Based on sales trends, we know that those games will reach most of their predictions before the moment they stop selling. It's guaranteed.

At best you have evidence - if this site could be called that considering the absence of any - of what it has sold right now. What you're referring to is hope.

Jay520 said: As for Reach. It's not a matter of IF it does, because it WILL do 10m. It's guaranteed. We know that by looking at the current sales of the game. We can clearly see what the game will and won't reach. Reach WILL cross 10m in it's Lifetime.

I think you're confusing a guarentee with a likelyhood.

Jay520 said: That means once the games start sellingl <100 units a week.

Shouldn't it be more like when the game stops selling enough to reach the prediction? GT5 sales last week were 10,000 - Are you seriously suggesting i'd need to wait until another 300 weeks or 69 months or 5 and 3/4 years (longer if the trend is downwards which it will be and for more specific predictions) just to serve some crow before it reaches the average prediction figure?

Whats more, in 2017 would I still hear the same excuses?

 

okay in order to stop huge inacurracies in one persons posts i have done the math and have the averages of all the sales predictions of each game.

predictions pre Uncharted 2, God of War 3, and Gran Turismo 5 releases

God Of War 3	Uncharted 2	GT5
3.374	3.026	8.454

actual sales	3.94	4.71	6.38
difference	.566	1.684	-2.074

predictions post Uncharted 2 and God of War release and at GT5 release

God of War 3	Uncharted 2	GT5
4.530	4.738	9.057

overall predictions

name	GOW 3	Uncharted 2	GT5
predicted sales	3.952	3.882	8.714
actual sales	3.94	4.71	6.38
difference in prediction and actual	-.012	.828	-2.334
likely sales	4.8	5.4	10

so as you can see the predictions before the games were released were just awful terrible, and pathetic, nothing was remotely close. GOW3 sales were .6 off, and after this year will be more than 1 million off. Uncharted 2 was 1.7 million off, and by the end of this year it will be more than 2 million off. Gran Turismo 5 so far is 2 million under, but by the end of this year it will be about .5 million under. currently the game is tracking ahead of GT4 which sold 10.5 million, so we can only expect similar number from GT5 or a little lower.

Predictions after the games released we a lot higher, as to be expecected, but were still very bad and every single game will surpass the guesses.

and i put down the likely sales for each game, which i feel will likely be around what they end up with.