SCEE has shipped more than 3 millions on D-day for GT4 so i don't see why SCEA won't be able to do the same if demand is there for God of war 2.

NDS 500k Wii 400k PS2 280k 360 220k PSP 200k PS3 170k GBA 120k GCN 20k Software top 5 1. God of War 2 950k 2. WiiPay 380k 3. GRAW 2 300k 4. Crackdown 200k 5. Tiger Woods 180k

Don't forget Graw2 on the software charts - should be second or third behind Gow2 and possibly Wii Play. God of War 2 should give the PS2 a boost - boy, I bet Sony wishes this was coming out for the PS3 instead :) How do you think Oblivion PS3 will do, or the Oblivion expansion on the 360? Armored Core? Virtua Tennis? Godfather? There is actually a lot of software coming out this month. Also, I'm calling for TMNT to break 100k on each the PS2, Wii and 360. Turtle Power!

There is a rumour that March NPD may be 5 weeks. This is in contrast to most quarters which operate on a 5-4-4 basis (a year is 52 weeks, 1/4 of 52 = 13, so one 'month' per quarter is 5 weeks). However, since this is the NPD leap year, no one really knew which quarter would have two 5 week months...turns out it may be quarter 1... If it happens, that means NPD data comes out April 19, and covers March 3 to April 7. April would be until May 5..meaning NPD data would come out May 17...May would be until June 2, and come out the 14th of June...at which case June would either be 5 weeks, or through exactly the 30th, meaning that data would come out July 12 or July 19...

Doesn't make any sense to have a whole week of April count with March. But then, NPD sucks. Mostly randomly, I'm going to pick... DS- 470,000 Wii- 333,000 PS2- 300,000 (GoWII will sell to the massive existing userbase mostly) 360- 210,000 PSP- 160,000 PS3- 137,000 GBA- 110,000 GCN- 14,000 Neo Geo Pocket Color- 7 XB- 6

I like your figures - they seem very sensible to me :) I don't think GOWII will hit 1mill - maybe 600-700k (first month). At least I presume people are running out to buy it ;) Wii Play should continue to sell well - as its basically a controller pack (see sales in Japan). Agree about Motorstorm - might sell a few more units, but won't have a huge impact on PS3 sales. Think about 160k. PS2 won't be that high - as PS3 sales pick up, PS2 sales will also drop (less reason to buy old console, more old-gen PS2 consoles in circulation/passed around). But it will be close :)

I wonder what he 'qualifies' as short supply? Wii has been selling 80-85k per week this year, so I imagine he means a dip of 20-30%? That would put Wii at 300,000 for the month (5 weeks) vs. my expectation of 400,000 (see my entry in March NPD Prediction League).  The interesting thing is that NPD covered March 4-April 7 - which would indicate increased productivity has not reach American shores yet.

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Lazard: March Sales Flat On Short Nintendo Supply

In his latest note to investors, Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian expects flat sales in NPD's March software sales results, with strong sales of God of War II, GRAW 2 and Guitar Hero II offset by short Wii and DS supplies.

"On a year-over-year basis," said Sebastian, "our 'back-of-the-envelope' analysis suggests console and handheld software sales may be flat in March, with incremental sales of next-generation products largely offset by declining older generation products and short supplies of Nintendo’s Wii and DS platforms."

Sebastian expects Sony, Activision, and Electronic Arts will be top performers for the month, with software sales will be driven by God of War II, GRAW 2, Guitar Hero II and Def Jam Icon amongst others.

Looking specifically at Activision, Sebastian says a solid monthly performance up 20 percent will be carried mostly on catalog sales (primarily the PS2's Guitar Hero II and continuing sales of Call of Duty 3), with the Xbox 360 release of Guitar Hero II having launched on April 3rd.

"At this point," said Sebastian, "we expect 4Q (March) results to be in line with or slightly ahead of our recently raised revenue and EPS estimates. We also continue to expect a robust lineup of new Activision titles in F2008, including sequels to key movie-based franchises Spider-Man and Shrek, as well as core franchises Tony Hawk and Call of Duty, and new licensed titles Transformers and Bee Movie."

Turning to Electronic Arts, Lazard expects sell-through to be down 20 percent, despite recent next-gen releases of Def Jam Icon, Tiger Woods and Godfather, and that EA might have two to three of the top 10 Wii titles for the month as EA turns more heavily toward Nintendo's latest console.

Said Sebastian, "We also note our retail checks indicate PC titles Command & Conquer 3 and The Sims Seasons are selling well, which is not reflected in our console sales estimates. We expect in-line 4Q (March) results with the potential for conservative initial F2008 guidance. However, we continue to believe a strengthening product lineup in F2008 should lead to a year of solid growth and margin expansion for Electronic Arts."

Finally, looking at THQ, Sebastian says sales will be down just slightly over 2006 with few console releases across the month of March. The publisher's Supreme Commander has done quite well, according to Lazard's retail checks, though its post-apocalyptic FPS STALKER, says the analyst, "does not appear to be a top PC title."

"We expect solid 4Q results for THQ with the potential for upside to our estimates," said Sebastian. "Following a very strong 2006, we expect another year of solid growth in 2007, including new titles Frontlines Fuel of War and Ratatouille, as well as sequels to franchises WWE Smackdown, Juiced, Stuntman, Cars and Nickelodeon titles."

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=13457

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Analyst: Guitar Hero II For Xbox 360 Selling Strongly

 Bill Kreher from AG Edwards has revealed that 89 out of 100 GameStop stores that his firm called were completely sold out of Guitar Hero II for the Xbox 360, with further positive words for Activision due to Spiderman 3's imminent release.

According to a research note from Kreher: "Guitar Hero II for the Xbox 360 is enjoying strong momentum with demand outstripping supply."

He then commented that, even though the game (which is bundled with one controller) costs $89.99, and the extra guitar controller brings the average price close to $150: "In our survey of 100 GameStops, 89 were completely out of Guitar Hero II and none had extra guitar (X-Plorer) controllers. Respondents with Guitar Hero II in stock had only limited quantities, with 15 total units available out of 100 stores."

Kreher's conclusion? "We believe Activision is poised for strong market share gains in first half fiscal '08 due to strength of Guitar Hero II for the Xbox 360, the highly anticipated release of Spiderman 3 in May, and contribution from other early 1H08 releases such as Shrek the Third and Transformers."

Thus, AG Edwards is raising its fiscal 2008 and 2009 estimates on the major publisher, re-affirming its BUY rating, and raising its 12-18 month share price goal $24 from $23. Activision is currently trading at $19.58 in early share activity, up slightly.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=13456

Damn it get rid of these please...