March NPD Predictions

[TheSource]

I wonder what he 'qualifies' as short supply? Wii has been selling 80-85k per week this year, so I imagine he means a dip of 20-30%? That would put Wii at 300,000 for the month (5 weeks) vs. my expectation of 400,000 (see my entry in March NPD Prediction League).  The interesting thing is that NPD covered March 4-April 7 - which would indicate increased productivity has not reach American shores yet.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

Lazard: March Sales Flat On Short Nintendo Supply

In his latest note to investors, Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian expects flat sales in NPD's March software sales results, with strong sales of God of War II, GRAW 2 and Guitar Hero II offset by short Wii and DS supplies.

"On a year-over-year basis," said Sebastian, "our 'back-of-the-envelope' analysis suggests console and handheld software sales may be flat in March, with incremental sales of next-generation products largely offset by declining older generation products and short supplies of Nintendo’s Wii and DS platforms."

Sebastian expects Sony, Activision, and Electronic Arts will be top performers for the month, with software sales will be driven by God of War II, GRAW 2, Guitar Hero II and Def Jam Icon amongst others.

Looking specifically at Activision, Sebastian says a solid monthly performance up 20 percent will be carried mostly on catalog sales (primarily the PS2's Guitar Hero II and continuing sales of Call of Duty 3), with the Xbox 360 release of Guitar Hero II having launched on April 3rd.

"At this point," said Sebastian, "we expect 4Q (March) results to be in line with or slightly ahead of our recently raised revenue and EPS estimates. We also continue to expect a robust lineup of new Activision titles in F2008, including sequels to key movie-based franchises Spider-Man and Shrek, as well as core franchises Tony Hawk and Call of Duty, and new licensed titles Transformers and Bee Movie."

Turning to Electronic Arts, Lazard expects sell-through to be down 20 percent, despite recent next-gen releases of Def Jam Icon, Tiger Woods and Godfather, and that EA might have two to three of the top 10 Wii titles for the month as EA turns more heavily toward Nintendo's latest console.

Said Sebastian, "We also note our retail checks indicate PC titles Command & Conquer 3 and The Sims Seasons are selling well, which is not reflected in our console sales estimates. We expect in-line 4Q (March) results with the potential for conservative initial F2008 guidance. However, we continue to believe a strengthening product lineup in F2008 should lead to a year of solid growth and margin expansion for Electronic Arts."

Finally, looking at THQ, Sebastian says sales will be down just slightly over 2006 with few console releases across the month of March. The publisher's Supreme Commander has done quite well, according to Lazard's retail checks, though its post-apocalyptic FPS STALKER, says the analyst, "does not appear to be a top PC title."

"We expect solid 4Q results for THQ with the potential for upside to our estimates," said Sebastian. "Following a very strong 2006, we expect another year of solid growth in 2007, including new titles Frontlines Fuel of War and Ratatouille, as well as sequels to franchises WWE Smackdown, Juiced, Stuntman, Cars and Nickelodeon titles."

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=13457

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Analyst: Guitar Hero II For Xbox 360 Selling Strongly

 Bill Kreher from AG Edwards has revealed that 89 out of 100 GameStop stores that his firm called were completely sold out of Guitar Hero II for the Xbox 360, with further positive words for Activision due to Spiderman 3's imminent release.

According to a research note from Kreher: "Guitar Hero II for the Xbox 360 is enjoying strong momentum with demand outstripping supply."

He then commented that, even though the game (which is bundled with one controller) costs $89.99, and the extra guitar controller brings the average price close to $150: "In our survey of 100 GameStops, 89 were completely out of Guitar Hero II and none had extra guitar (X-Plorer) controllers. Respondents with Guitar Hero II in stock had only limited quantities, with 15 total units available out of 100 stores."

Kreher's conclusion? "We believe Activision is poised for strong market share gains in first half fiscal '08 due to strength of Guitar Hero II for the Xbox 360, the highly anticipated release of Spiderman 3 in May, and contribution from other early 1H08 releases such as Shrek the Third and Transformers."

Thus, AG Edwards is raising its fiscal 2008 and 2009 estimates on the major publisher, re-affirming its BUY rating, and raising its 12-18 month share price goal $24 from $23. Activision is currently trading at $19.58 in early share activity, up slightly.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=13456