I haven't looked at historic data about oil prices and recessions, but right now you can already see the oil price going up when people start expecting the economy to get better. The reason for higher prices is that more factories will use energy, more plastic stuff manufactured, and more people using cars to go to work when they get jobs (in general most economic activity uses oil).

There is some speculation, but the point is that even today we can see that the economy's recovery will make oil prices go up. $250 oil is very possible from what I've read...

A good site about oil and energy is www.theoildrum.com

As clichéd as this sounds, you are both right.

The first phase was what Montana describes, that's why the US  became so great.

But I'd say Mafoo is mostly right about the second phase, he's describing the main reason why USA has been able to remain so powerful (the 20th century, for example compare the US philosophy and political system to the dictator nations of Europe pre-WWII), grow and leave behind the rest of the world. Just ask yourself why other resource rich colonies over the world never became powerful (like Brazil). USA is the most powerful empire in the last two thousand years in world history.

Of course there are a lot of other factors involved too.

Capitalism is great in theory, but also it eventually is self defeating. Largely for the same reason communism is great in theory but self defeating (it just takes longer for capitalism to self destruct). The human propensity for Greed, and a lust for power. The reason the USA became a super power was because groups of people poured themselves into their work passionately and reaped the rewards for it. Now they own the country. There is no government anymore, there is a puppet government owned by insurance companies, oil companies, food companies, banks, farming companies, and anyone else with enough money to buy a congressmen, a senator and a TV ad.

When Obama had the debates this week on health care reform, Insurance companies flew all of their lobbyists there to tell everyone to go fuck themselves. That congress is powerless, and if you make things more expensive for us, we will just pass the buck to everyone else because we are getting rich regardless and you can't stop us, so don't bother trying. The instant our government tries to act in any way, there will be an army of lobbyists buying legislation that works in there favor, even if it is detrimental to the country as a whole. And they can buy it because people are greedy, and people want power. Congressmen, and senators, and corporations they all want the same thing.

You can say that Obama's health care plan sucks, and I will probably agree with you. But I will also add that our current healthcare system sucks, and any changes to healthcare are not going to benefit America, it will benefit insurance companies the same as our current plan. New energy technology will only exist if somebody finds a model that they can profit from more in the short term than what they are currently doing. No company will tell it's stock holders "Well for the next two decades we are going to be stagnant, but then it's smooth sailing". Because we have developed a lust for getting rich and getting rich fast. There is no long term anymore. There is only this fiscal year, and there is only a 20k limit on my credit card, and that's all that matters. Fuck ten year plans, how much money can you make me this year and next? If it takes longer than that I will go somewhere else. And Fuck saving up for a house that I will buy in five years, or a new entertainment system. I have a credit card.

It used to be that was was good for the few trickled down and became good for the many. But that's no longer the case. As a case study, look at Fast food corporations, and junk food corporations that pay hundreds of millions to advertise, make their food as addictive as possible, make sure that they continue to have beneficial legislation and subsidies, and most importantly make sure people are as uneducated about their products as possible. America is grossly obese, and only becoming more obese. McDonalds and Coca-cola make billions. Commercials air talking about the stupid misconceptions about high fructose corn syrup, Coca-cola puts paragraphs on the back of their boxes extolling the scientific hydrating benefits of Coca-cola during the summer, and they both try to get their products inside of schools. At some point the corporation is no longer benefiting the country as a whole, they are hurting the populous for their own gain.

Ideally people would be educated consumers, and companies would have to stay nimble and responsive to the thoughtful demands of the populous with each individual seeking their own benefit. But ideally communism should work too. In reality communist regimes are owned by authoritarian dictators, and capitalism creates fat ignorant masses controlled by huge corporations that purchased their government, their education, and their world view.

America is fragile, in fact it's going to self destruct. This is not a question of if, but of how long will it take. Not because of socialist government policies stealing our freedom, but because large corporations bought the country, exploited it, and ran away to different countries with their sacks of cash, because that's what we do.

Vagabond -

Can you give a good example in history of businesses, or any one business ruining a country? Can you given an example of unfettered free-market policies destroying a country?

If america is the great experiment, the first of it's kind, then you're not going to find a historical trend. At what point in history has their been a country that existed in the state we do now of mass media, industrialization, a capitalist world power, and world wide mega corporations?

You want a historical example? Give me a few decades and I'll point out the window.

I'm not an expert on the economy, social science, etc, but how set is America in the long run with it's natural resources and the biggest thing of all, it's huge ability to produce food.

You could argue the United Fruit company fucked over a lot of central american countries.

Like Jamaica.  They're in the position they are because of the UFC and US chicken countries.

Americans like the breast.  So sell the breasts to the Americans and dump off all the undesireable parts on central america for cheap.

Destroyed all their industry.

The CIA helped the overthrow of the government of Guatamala on behalf of them too.

Here's the problem:

You opine about capitalistic greed, and how it can destory, but every historical precedent argues that there are far larger, more prevalent favors involved in destroying nations: authority, and too much of it. Almost every great and small implosion has to do with a ruler, or rulers, wielding too much authority.

You can go on your assumption that worldwide mega corporations will destroy America, but I tend to believe that when too much authority causes 95% of implosions, I will stick with that being the litmus test for what will cause a countries downfall. Even in the case of capitalism or a corporation causing downfall, it will do such because it was given too much authority. I never said a government caused the problem, only authority. Of course, the government is usually the one wielding, or delegating, that authority, too.

Your snide attitude aside, when did I ever say too much athority was a good thing? At what point did I say that socialism will save america, and the only way to get us out of this quagmire of greed and power is to take away individual rights, or confer more power on the (purchased and corrupt mind you) government? At no point did I.

Yes absolutely, authoritarianism is bad. Government power is bad. No arguments. But this country will be ruined by corporations long before the government grows powerful enough to destroy the country.

I mean the government is already owned by every mega corporation, so why would is be a good thing to give them more power? Mega-corporations already wield unruly amounts of power over our day to day lives, and they just use the government as another avenue of doing so.

The combination of mass media, democracy and super rich corporations creates a situation in which it's very easy to purchase legislators. People don't vote for the guy that has good ideas and performed well in a town hall debate that wasn't televised and was only seen by a couple hundred people. That guy is considered a fringe nutcase. They vote based on commercials, and radio ads that run six, seven, eight times an hour. Media saturation that tells them what the real issues are and what so and so will do about them, unlike the evil wife beating opposition. They make decisions based on what they digest from mass media, which costs money. If you can outspend your opponent you hold more mindshare from your consituents, and you're victory is that much more likely. And you get the money from business and corporations that you now owe favors to. Businesses get people elected. And businesses are paying for both candidates in most cases (but not that third fringe nutjob, who needs him, two people is good enough).

People can't find Iraq on a map, but they can sure as hell tell you all about the island on Lost. More people watch american idol that electoral debates. The average person thinks that getting a salad at a chain resteraunt is a healthy alternative (it's not). And that is not an accident. America is getting incredibly unhealthy. Entertainment is sedentary, and 90% of the food we consume is terrible for us. A cheeseburger at McDonalds is cheaper than a head of broccoli at the grocery store, and that is not an accident either. Corporations make sure that the things they need subsidized (or to keep subsidized in the case of corn) do so in order to keep their prices low and their profits high. Even if that means that it's vastly cheaper to consume food that is killing you, opposed to food that is good for you. And more appealing too, when was the last time you saw commercials for broccoli? I've heard three Fast food commercials in the background just typing this post, there will probably be another two or three by the time I'm done. Our combination of mass media, industrialization, and mega corporations are making America grossly obese, diabetic, with rampant heart disease. Ideally should this happen in a capitalistic society? No, but it is. People should be educated and responsible citizens that push corporations to do responsible things....but well, look around.

America is made ignorant through similar devices. News organizations are getting dumber by the year. What's considered the Evening news now, would've been Entertainment Tonight a few decades ago. Complex issues are simplified to black and white propositions, extremely biased stances are taken, and stories of no importance whatsoever are made top stories because they are sensationalistic. This is done because it gets viewers, viewers gets revenue from advertisers, and the one with the most advertisers wins while the ones who can't die out. Time magazine used to be a great institution of news and culture. Now it's people magazine. Fewer articles, more bitesized micro-paragraphs on celebrity gossip and juicy quotes, more "humor" articles, and the more sensationalistic scare news about swine flu and feel good stories on hero pilots.

Our education system is crap. Publishers all vie for getting their books in schools by sending gift baskets, inviting school board officials on vacation with them, ect ect ect. Hundreds of books have to be sifted through, except 99% of them never even get looked at because this publisher has someone who is there to help the school board understand the purposes and teaching processes used by their books....who also has a time share in Cancoon, you know if you're family isn't busy. The school system itself is of course fucked, but that's a whole 'nother topic right there.

Capitalism has proven to be a great motivator, but it's also shown that there isn't anything that can't be bought. We don't have kings and princes, we don't have despots, we don't have dictators, we don't have castes, we have an amalgamation of corporate entities that rule our lives. And it is not for our benefit. America has indeed been a great experiment in economics and government, the first nation of it's kind. But I think it's coming to the end of it's golden age, and what we're learning is that capitalism+democracy=rulership by corporate entity. And the thing about corporate entities is that they don't care about nations, or the public, they care about their bottom line.

Just because authoritarian government ruins countries doesn't mean that there isn't room for something else to ruin a country.

I think a big problem is that people (this isn't directed at anyone in particular, but rather a general statement) think in an either or way. You are either pro-corporate (yay, hard work and ingenuity!) and anti-government (boo, freedom stealing inept bureaucracy!) , or you are pro-government (Yay democracatic for the people rulership!) and anti-corporate (boo greedy seal sweatshop owning fat cats!). Fuck that. They are both terrible things. it's not a question of whether or not too much government can ruin a country. We can look back at history and see that. It's not a question of whether or not corporate entities will corrupt governments, and harm the public for profit, just look outside. It's a question of which will destroy the US first. Because they both will destroy us.

Simply saying, boo government. Shrinking them will save us! or saying Boo corporations more regulations are needed to keep them under control! Are naive, ideal driven nonsense. Because you're just trying to pick which group gains power and uses it to ruin the country.

The US has been the great experiment from great minds with great philosophies. But now we are seeing the end result of capitalism+democracy. And it's a system that logically self destructs. The person or persons that can come up with the next great experiment will be the ones in the history books in the future.