Slimebeast said:
NJ5 said:
This is a complicated subject, but I think that after the economy starts recovering the big problem USA faces (and other countries, but especially USA) will be oil prices.
USA's infrastructure in most places relies on cheap oil which won't be available when economies start recovering. The most flagrant example being high usage of cars of course.
We already had a sneak peek of $150 oil and its consequences just before the financial crisis hit, and it wasn't pretty.
You can have a powerful military, but when the economy to support it relies on something that won't be available that doesn't look sustainable to me.
|
This I believe too. While the economic growth won't be record high in the first couple of years after the recession, the oil prices probably will.
I can't put words on it, but I have a gut feeling there's some kind of dynamic in it, NJ5 u probably know if historical data supports the notion that oil price gets unproportunately high right after a recession going into a period of growth.
(I'd guess one of the reasons being that OPEC and oil oligarks want to make up for lost profits, then there's a lot of psychology built into it, investor & stock market optimism & behaviours etc)
At some point within 5 years I bet it will peak at $250.
|
I haven't looked at historic data about oil prices and recessions, but right now you can already see the oil price going up when people start expecting the economy to get better. The reason for higher prices is that more factories will use energy, more plastic stuff manufactured, and more people using cars to go to work when they get jobs (in general most economic activity uses oil).
There is some speculation, but the point is that even today we can see that the economy's recovery will make oil prices go up. $250 oil is very possible from what I've read...
A good site about oil and energy is www.theoildrum.com
