Well John, I'm with the community this time arround. The opening week of Wii fit will be a real bummer to you, but in the long term I can see Wii Fit outsell Halo. 10 Million is my minimum prediction for that one 40 Million my maximum. That a wide range, but how well it sells depends on how good Nintendo advertise and hype it, in NA. No big opening week though. 150k in japan, max.

Oh you're right. It's not the way these kind of games trend.

Wii Fit is a trendsetter...and a trendbreaker.

It will do BOTH explosive first week and the usual burning multiweeks.

Taking nothing way from Halo 3 because they did an utterly excellent job making this game but Wii Fit will surpass them.

I want you to pay attention to the main music theme that plays as this E3 video rolls on.

That rolling roundish music represents the coming change this industry is about to undertake. The rumblings of transition. It is the Revolution they kept speaking about. Sea of change about to wash away all the old rules of how things are done. Notice how at the end the song ascends upwards notewise. It's progress. And you will see this in living form very shortly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oNVIcMnZh4

John Lucas 

Dont know what to say really, that is insane predicition. I know that it would not beat halo 3 launch specially not just Japan. But I dont know how much it will sell but it seems that I am the only one that think this thing will not be that huge. It will sell but I dont think it will sell over 10m like some people predict here. It will be interesting to see the launch and how wrong I will be, because most people think this will be like Wiisports/Wiiplay. I am John Lucas evil twin Wiifit will not sell more then 500k launch week.

You have to love Johnlucas, the man is gone, and bam he's back with this bad boy! You have to love that. And really what reason does anyone have to bad mouth him. I celebrate the fact that he puts his money where his mouth is. I hate when people say ____ game will sell good! then we have ten debates over what good is. He gave us a definitive bar to call him out on, I celebrate that.

Now on to that bar. While I agree that it's hard to really see how big Wiifit will be and the moon is the potential for this one, it's hard to think it will all come raining down in the first week.
1. Nintendo is never that good with stocking stores with that many copies on week one.
2. It's a new gizmo and a game, making stock an even bigger problem.
3. It's a casual game, casual people don't rush to the store in waves on launch day.
4. Halo 3 had a preexisting fanbase and the sequal has been waited for for years. And tons of preorders(I haven't heard anything about wiifit preorders.)

So I'll end with saying in the long run I do believe Wiifit will outsell Halo 3(over it's lifespan), or rather it's very likely, It has all the makings of Wii sports, with far more content, and if the accessory gets used in other popular games, it will be almost required to buy to enjoy other titles much like Wiiplay. I think it's also another step in Nintendo's strategy, if the Wii is a fad, then let it keep generating fad revival with zappers and Wiifit foot pads and God only knows what else.

I would've picked Super Smash Bros. or Super Mario Galaxy as the best chances of doing that, on a WW level though, not a single region, and I don't think any of them will do it either.

Unfortunately I think this is impossible.

Halo 3's first week WW was about 3.7m units sold.
Right now Japan's Wii user base is about 3.7m.
By end of year I have Japan predicted to be about 6m.
So, that means Wii Fit would have to sell more than 50% of the Wii's user base in its first week. Has this ever happened to any game in history? I don't think so.

Dang, is it to late to add that line to your Halo 3 16 million sales thread?  With stickball in the place of John of course :P.

I think it is a bit of a stretch to expect Wii Fit to sell 3.8 million or whatever in week 1 if only because I don't think Nintendo will make 3.8 million Wii Fit boards right off the bat.  I do think Wii Fit will after 3-6 months absolutely crush Halo 3's lifetime sales but unlike Halo which sells 40% or so in week 1 Wii Fit will probably only sell 3-5% in week 1 (say 500k-1,250k).   It will also probably be in the top 50 (maybe top 25) for the rest of the generation and could even sell long after this gen solely as an exercise device.

lol, for RolStoppable EVERYTHING revolves around the User Popularity Game.

And sorry John, but I don't think that is possible. It might beat it in lifetime, but not in opening week.

As Rick James would say, "Cocaine is a helluva drug!".

Lay off the white pony John Lucas, there is NO WAY that Wii Fit will even touch Halo3 worldwide sales in just Japan alone. Heck, even if Nintendo released Wii Fit worldwide for a simultaneous release it wouldn't even get HALF of Halo3's number.

Hmmm.... Interesting....

Regulars on this board will know I'm one of the very few that actually go on record and agree with John Lucas' predictions. But wow John, that's quite a call.

Now Japan is an obsessive type nation, and immense first day sales have been seen, most recently with the PSP Slim/FFVII/MGSOP launches. So that's supports you.

Wii Fit will appeal to a MUCH larger base than the Wii alone would, so that definately supports you.

However...

Nintendo hasn't been able to produce sufficient Wii or DS to meet demands all year, so for them to pull 4m+ Wiiboards out of their arse for one weeks sales seems incredulous. You say they won't leave money on the table, but I submit, they have all year.

Nintendo is nortoriously conservative, while you may predict that amount of success, I guarantee Nintendo does not.

Nintendo is also proven to be fairly lousy at marketing. Now Wii Fit, like the Wii before it will create it's own marketing without Nintendo's flimsy marketing department's help, but, that takes some time.

I've predicted Wii Health Pack (as it was known at the time) would sell like nothing ever seen before it on this forum long ago, but since then Nintendo revealed Wii Fit and the Wii Board and I was underwhelmed by it's potential. Having said that, I think it is directed more at the Japanese than American market and will have greater success there than here (but it will still be big here). I still hold to that claim, but...

I'll go on record here as saying John Lucas is wrong. Wii Fit in Japan will NOT meet Halo 3's WW first week sales. But you will all be amazed by how close he comes.

North America.

Nintendo Wii.

The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

November 19 through November 26, 2006.

75% attach rate in first week.

http://www.videogamesblogger.com/2006/11/27/wii-sells-600000-in-one-week-zelda-attach-rate-is-75.htm 

John Lucas