| johnlucas said: Let me respond to the people mentioning Wii's current sales figures as an impossibility of my prediction coming true. Halo's opening week tally will be finalized after that week is over, right? It will probably be around 4 million worldwide opening week. Everything AFTER this opening week does not go on the Halo 3 opening week total because...it's not opening week. CURRENTLY as of October 4th Wii in Japan according to VGC has 3.66 million sold in Japan. Why do you think this number will stay constant by December? You know good and well it won't and the holiday season will spur on tremendous sales which is why I made those bold minimum 20 million worldwide end year claims on my first post here way back in March right before St. Patty's. You gotta remember something. Wii worldwide sold just under 4 million by end of 2006 (GRRR! Wii strap recall!) in less than 1 1/2 months. It launched in the Americas on November 19 giving it only 43 days to contribute to that amazing figure. In Japan it launched on December 2, just under a full month, giving it 30 days to add to that fantastic figure. Because of the Immaculate Conception different regions of Europe got different launch days with some getting it on December 7, some on December 8, and some on December 9. So this respectively only gave Wii 24 days, 23, days, and 22 days to add onto that fantabulous figure. It's not like that this time around and the Wii will have exactly the same fervor if not more this year than last. You got 3 full calendar months to create powerful hardware sales for all regions. It's even launched in South Africa now finally! No China yet but they're bootlegging it with Vii anyway. Haha. October, November, December. The traditional holiday buyer season months. People start gathering presents for loved ones at this time. I got my NES on Christmas 1988 and my grandmother bought it in October keeping it locked away until XMas day. Love my grandma. Wii hardware will climb tremendously in the next coming months. That Japan 3.66 mil is not going to STAY 3.66 mil. And of that amount of all owners I see a tremendously high attach rate for this system in regards to Wii Fit. It appeals to the new audience in a whole new light. Have we EVER seen anybody merge the chore of exercise with the fun of a game and do it well? I think Wii Fit will pull it off and believe you me unlike in America where ads on this may not work quite the same, it WILL work in Japan and I bet you they are preparing Japan to get hyped up for this new direction. This will be the Brain Age/Nintendogs effect that fully turns on the Wii potential like Brain Age/Nintendogs did for DS. Wii's only been playing with the competition so far. The heat is about to be turned up and Wii Fit is part of the equation that will make this happen. This game will eclipse everything for a long time chartwise. Giga Bowser Kaioken X 50 Ascended Super Duper Saiyajin with a cherry on top AND the bag of chips. It's coming. And all I'm doing is getting you ready for it. Stay tuned, baby. John Lucas |
John, so you think in 3 months, the Wii can average over 2.5m units per month?
Lets say the Wii sells great in Japan over the rest of the year....3.0m units (above the current J/US/PAL ratio for Wii sales). That gives the Wii 6.5m units before Wii Fit, give or take. You do realize that Nintendo would have to ship 4m units in 1 week, AND have a 65% attach ratio for WF to make that kind of sales?
Just not happening. Live in your dreamworld, John.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
I'm not going to pretend I understand the Japanese market because I simply don't...
The only thing I think can hold back your prediction will be store stock.
I really don't think stores will be able to stock so many WiiFit's in their stores... specially not 3.4 million in Japan alone.
Proud Member of GAIBoWS (Gamers Against Irrational Bans of Weezy & Squilliam)
johnlucas said:
This is the only thing I worry about with Wii Fit. But I'm sure Nintendo will have the game warning-proofed up the wazoo to prevent the sue-happy. John Lucas |
Yes, surely they have medical staff involved in the production of this game, so it would be very surprising if they didn't remember to put such a warning on the game.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
| tk1797 said: @ johnlucas How well do you think wii music will sell? |
Hmmm, I think the Wii series speaks to people. It's that design. It's simple not cluttered and doesn't take itself too seriously. Feels fresh. I've never gotten a feeling I had playing like I do with the Wii series. It almost makes feel like it's 1988 and I'm playing the NES for the first time. That new unusual feeling you get when you first discovered a new area of gaming or gaming itself.
Will Wii Music just use the Wiimotes or will it come up with a new special peripheral? Don't know. But Harmonix with Guitar Hero understood the coolness of people playing air guitar aping their favorite guitar stars on TV. I personally catch myself playing air drums when I hear a good beat. I play music anyway so maybe this influences things but this kind of feel will make the soon-to-come Rock Band a tremendous game since it's more than just guitar.
I see it selling very well just like its Wii brethren or sisteren if you prefer. Nintendo has a way of making games accessible and putting a charming touch on them. I know I will especially love the drumming aspect as I find myself doing that sometimes playing Wario Ware on Wii along with other games. I think it'll match Wii Play's performance on worldwide charts since unlike action-packed Wii Sports and exercise-minded Wii Fit it's more sedentary without so much the health aspect involved. More the fun of the experience. If they match Rock Band's 4 player ability this thing will make some waves. And if they take it back to Mario Paint where you can create your own melodies to play on...that will put the asses in the seats. I just hope they use more than the C key this time and let us use the whole 12. Hard to recreate things without all my sharps and flats.
Once again retirement homes will get a kick out of this. It'll sell strong like all the rest of the Wii series matching up with Wii Play's performance around the world.
John Lucas
Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot
WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!
Hey John, I love your predictions... it will be interesting if this comes true... but that's not the way the social and casual games like this trend...
It'll sell the same every week for its entire life, but that wont be as much as Halo 3... Halo 3 is the most top heavy game you'll ever see.
JL's outrageous predictions are closer to truth than that of whoisthatdudethatalwaysmakefailedmarketpredictions
| Galaki said: JL's outrageous predictions are closer to truth than that of whoisthatdudethatalwaysmakefailedmarketpredictions |
Must be talking about Pachter. 
Hahahahaha.
John Lucas
Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot
WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!
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