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Forums - General - Why the recession is not gonna be over anytime soon

TheRealMafoo said:

Half the posts in this thread has data. I linked to the best source of data one can find, the economic statistics page that the government themselves releases.

I have posted link after link to discuss that TARP will not effect the economy. TARP did not effect the economy, but somehow I am living in a dream world where I have no clue what's going on, and you have some magical wisdom we all should be listening to.

You were wrong. Obama was wrong. Bush was wrong. None of them (including you) ever said TARP was put into place to save the banks. TARP was put into place to save the economy, and propping up the banks was how you all thought it would be saved.

Myself, and a dozen other people on this site said it will do nothing because it does not solve the problem. It did nothing.

Fuck man, I would hate to be one of your professors in school. No one can teach you a god damn thing. You get a position in your head, and if you think it's right, it can't possibly be wrong.

I went back and counted, and you posted one link in this entire thread.  And all you did was just throw the link up there without discussing any of the data in it.  While I may not always agree with Happy Squrriel and NJ5, they are at least supporting their arguments with facts and analysis.  That's apparently more than you are capable of.

Its pretty simple Mafoo, TARP is called the Troubled Assets Relief Program.  The piece of legislation had several different goals, the primary of which was to prevent systemic collapse of the financial system by buying up mortgage backed securities, dealing with credit default swaps, and other financial instruments that were causing problems by giving money to banks in need of it.  That is what the bulk of the text of the bill addresses.  You are correct that it was passed to help out the economy, but no one claimed that it would happen immediately. But you automatically assume that because things are still bad now, that they would have been exactly the same without TARP.  Yet you just assume that without showing any information that supports that argument.

It goes like this.  To have a healthy economy, it is necessary to have a healthy banking system.  However, a healthy banking system is not sufficient by itself to create a healthy economy.  But the fact remains that it is impossible to have a healthy economy without a healthy banking system.  Bush knew that, Congress knew that, and Obama knows that.

I mean look at the preamble to the bill, its pretty clear it was designed to help out financial institutions and the economy.  Apparently it is impossible for you to understand that one piece of legislation can have more than one purpose, or that there is a fundamental relationship between those two goals.

"To provide authority to the Federal Government to purchase and insure certain types of troubled assets for the purpose of providing stability to and preventing disruption in the economy and financial systemand protecting taxpayers, and other purposes."

 

http://issuu.com/johnwonderlich/docs/ayo08c04_xml515pm

 



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

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So, have we reached a conclusion in this thread yet?

How long will the Crysis last?



Slimebeast said:
So, have we reached a conclusion in this thread yet?

How long will the Crysis last?

That really depends on how you define what would be the end of the financial crisis.

There is a decent chance you will see positive GDP growth in Q3 2009.  I will be simply amazed if you don't see positive GDP growth in Q4 2009.  Q2 2009 GDP growth will be negative, likely in the -2-4% range.

Unemployment will likely remain high, once again a relative term since by many standards you could argue it is actually much lower than it could have been, until the end of 2009.  Unemployment may start decreasing by the end of the year, but unemployment is particularly difficult to predict.  Unemployment will start dropping by Q1 2010.

The stock market will likely start rising after the Q2 earnings reports come out, maybe during if Q2 earnings meet or beat analyst expectations.  The stock market can be particularly volatile though.  I would estimate the DOW will be over 9000 by the end of the year, the highest I would predict it could go is 10000.  It is highly unlikely the DOW will dip back below 7000 or even 7500.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

^You're very optimistic. That's good.

I'm leaning towards a quite short recession too actually.



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I don't expect the economy to recover in 2009 or even 2010 (certainly not early 2010). With such long time frames, and because this is not my area of expertise I wouldn't predict a specific time for recovery.

By recovery I mean a sustained recovery of course. If the economy enters a temporary plateau where it drops or improves by a small amount that doesn't mean much, it could just be a period where government intervention is causing a delay to the economic effects. I don't think that's very likely to happen though.

BTW akuma, for the Dow index to drop under 7500 it just needs a 8% drop from here, it's not that much.



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

So I guess when Obama talks about TARP creating jobs, helping people buy cars, and fixing the housing problem, he was just talking about Bank Employee's?

To say that TARP was not supposed to help fix these problems directly, is to just bold face lie. Own up to the fact that you expected this to happen, and it did none of it, and people will have a lot more respect for you.



By the way it seems the next round of mortgage blowups is already starting, and it's not even related to subprime lending:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1206-Banks-Here-Come-The-OptionARM-Blowups!.html

Apparently it's something that Karl (the blogger mentioned in the OP) and others have been warning about for many years.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Yeah, adjustable rate mortgages have always been pretty dangerous, but fortunately a lot of people have taken advantages of the low interest rates and re-financed with a relatively low fixed mortgage rate.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

akuma587 said:
Yeah, adjustable rate mortgages have always been pretty dangerous, but fortunately a lot of people have taken advantages of the low interest rates and re-financed with a relatively low fixed mortgage rate.

The ones that could.

If you have an AMR on a house, and owe 200K on it, and the house is worth 180K (or less), you can't refinance. That's a very large category of home owners.

Not to mention the people who can afford to make there payments, but find it better not to. If someone still has a job, a 400K house with close to no equity, can still make his payments just fine, but the house is now worth 200K, letting it go is like making 200K in cash.

The question for people in that situation, is "is my credit rating worth 200K?". To a lot of people, the answer is no.