Some numbers speak for themselves. Some ask me to speak for them :)

A few notes:

#1 - Okay. Lets state the obvious. Halo 3 broke just about every record in the US possible, and then some. This is a great start, considering the small-ish userbase of the X360 in the US. Not only this, Halo 3 selling well in the US isn't an isolated inccedent. UK numbers were phenominal at 460k. I believe Halo 3, if these numbers are true, show that H3 sold 3.5m units worldwide in just 1 week. With that many units, it'll definately help MS get out of the red, and into the black.

#2. A rather "steep" drop for Bioshock. Consumers must of had their eyes on H3 enough to give BS a larger-than normal, but still great drop. Expect Bioshock to bounce back next week. Again, I wouldn't be too concerned that it sold *just* 45k in its 6th week.

#3 & #4 - Madden and .skate were the big winners of the Halo 3 hardware increase. Both had very small drops, despite seeing bad drops throughout their entire lifespans thus far. Expect them both to have decent holds. EA might do another .skate if it holds well, and the PS3 numbers are good.

#5. Ah, a sub-40% second week drop for the adorable Allegretto and team. Very good drop for ES, despite a poor opening. ioi re-did the Blue Dragon numbers, so it's possible ES is anywhere from 10-20% higher in actuality. If ES can see small-ish drops, it could wind up with decent US numbers.

#6. As predicted, Gears had a massive 30% increase. Expect it to continue to sell rather well. 3.5m is a lock now, and could wind up higher. Very good numbers in the face of the game that it was supposed to one-up.

#7, #8 and #10 all see good drops, and small jumps. Expect these 3 (GH2, TES:IV, RSV) to keep hanging around the top-50 for a long, long time.

#9 Stranglehold winds up having a pretty massive drop. So much for my "general shooter" idea....Atleast for this week.

Next week questions/outlook:

Exactly how far will Halo 3 plummet? I think it's going to nosedive...Alot. Halo 3 sold around 800,000 units that weren't pre-ordered. Therefore, those numbers are what we must go on, and not the inflated pre-order numbers. I'd anticipate a very good drop next week, minus the preorder numbers. For the Prediction League, I'm going to put 400k down.

Also, another big question is just how well PGR4 will do. It's already here, which is a big big suprise for me. Hopefully consumers are aware of PGR 4, and does well. It could do anywhere from 100k-300k first week. PGR3, FYI, sold 500k in the US. PGR4 should beat that.

 And finally, other games outside of the top 10 had good increases. Most notably, Forza Motorsports 2, as I predicted, had a near-20% increase from 7,500 to nearly 9,000 units. Also, for the fact that Crackdown had the H3 Beta, alot of consumers bought it too. It increased from 3,000 per week to 6,500 per week. Maybe it can scamper to 900k in the US?

More numbers (3-7) will be coming soon.

Nevertheless, a few real quick notes before I have to leave:

#1 Halo did very, very well. This is actually the HIGHEST a game has ever got on the X360 for a non-bundled game, and actually higher than Blue Dragon minust the bundles (which was around 85-88k, but around 30k were bundles). Also, in comparison: Halo 3 out-sold Halo 2's entire LTD on some charts in just one week. Amazing.

The big question is if Halo 3 has Oblivion-type legs (reports are, Halo actually sold out in some areas), and recieves a sub-75% drop next week, or drops more, and has bad legs. On the worst-case scenario, H3 could wind up with 90k at a bare minimum. However, with a rather strong lineup of hardware-moving games, and some decent Western-minded fare in AC6 (which should get both core, and hardcore users onboard), Halo 3 could move upto a 2.5x multiplier, and manage 150,000 at max.

#2. Oblivion had a still-typical 20% drop. Appearently those that bought a X360 did so for Halo, and not other Western games. However, it's possible that if X360 Halo gamers get bored, they could turn to the west's second-strongest title. Oblivion continues to outpace DOA4, now about 4,000 units above DOA4. However, at this time, DOA was doing 500-700 units every week. The question is if Oblivion keeps dropping at 15-20%, or stagnates at a point, and gets a Holiday boost.

Other #s will be added soon, but they fall into Oblivion's catagory: decently small decreases in sales, as opposed to increases. X360 Hardware had it's 2nd best non-January week with 5,200 units according to Media Create. I'll be posting a hardware chart soon for those interested.

Like the analysis mrstickball....

But just wanted to say this....People who thought that Halo 3 wouldn't increase hardware well there you see it. 125k is what it did. But for those fanboys out there that think when FFXIII and MGS4 comes out and think the PS3 hardware will see a huge increase. That's bull, I think I will see no difference. It would move the PS3 to 100k hardware sales or more and drop after the launch of the game. Same thing can be said about Wii and Super Mario Galaxy. I think the Wii owners that wanted the Super Mario Galaxy. Already purchased the Wii. Just like how everyone said about Halo 3. Existing 360 owners purchased Halo 3. Same can be said about existing PS3 owners are going to buy FFXIII and existing Wii owners are going to buy Super Mario Galaxy.

Just adding my 2 cents on what I was thinking for the day....

Excellent write up, as usual.

I'm wondering how hardware will hold up. Will it have a permanent boost into the holidays, or drop back to normality (60/70k is normal since price drop?).

Also wondering how NPD will go. I would like to see the 360 beat the Wii, but if 125k is all it could muster on Halo 3 release week, I have my doubts.

With tales of new SKUs arriving this month, the holiday season is just about to begin.

Honestly though? I wonder if the numbers will end up being wrong. ioi said X360 h/w was going to be above 200k. What happened?

Give it 2 weeks - once NPD #s are out, we'll see.

Regarding the 360 numbers seeming low, I think it's possible that it's due to current purchases of the console being mostly from the Halo fanatics. Obviously, the game will sell well as well since the current userbase is pretty hardcore. I think the 360 has passed the first part of the test: a sustained and gradual increase in hardware. The real test for the 360, I think, comes in the holidays when more casual gamers as well parents are likely to purchase as gifts. That's when I feel we will see the true impact of games like Halo 3.

Thanx for the good work as always :)

cool.

MrStickball your my hero. Bye bye PS3 fanboys you lose, hahaha. :]

Sad for ES tho, ppl are missing a great game.

Nice numbers this week from the 360, but i wonder how many Halo3 games have been shipped, my local Zellers(Mini Wal-mart) still has well over 100 copies of Halo3. The shelfs are overflowing, lots of the games are just sitting at the counter.