I've also noticed that among some of those who favor the Wii now (this is not aimed at John Lucas or anyone in particular) there is a tendency to become smug, overconfident, and arrogant. Nintendo has repeatedly say that they themselves wish to avoid the stigma of arrogance and this is hopeful in my opinion. They recognize how easily fortunes can be reversed as history has taught them before. I hope Nintendo's fans can learn from the company they favor in this respect as it is far easier to live with guarded optimism than shattered hopes.

Your statements of spending habits are very correct and often proved by the successes of penny slot machines over big money machines in the gambling field.

However most of your analogies such as the car and the wine are off-base. Pareto Principle is not in regards to hardware sales but software sales (games).

When you cater to clientèle such as the Wii has, you start a strange phenomenon. Lots of people begin to purchase consoles to enjoy the simple games like Wii Sports. What would theoretically make this body different from the smaller niche that the 360 and PS3 target?

The answer is game sales. Grandma may buy the Wii only for Wii Sports and that'll be the end of it. Little Timmy who buys his 360 will most likely amass himself a small library in games. Initially both Grandma and Little Timmy will look the same statistically however as time passes, the Little Timmy's of the market will start appearing. A more contemporary description of this question would be "Who has stronger legs?"

The Wii can appeal to both groups and it may convert a few from one group to another however in the long run, Grandma won't be the one supporting the Wii till the next hardware refresh, Little Timmy will. The only worry the Wii's sales have at this point is whether or not its sales are mostly made of up Grandma or Little Timmy.

What you have described as a negative aspect of the 360/PS3 is actually a positive in one way as their brands will attract Little Timmy and (for the most part) only Little Timmy. For example, if the Wii has sold 12m units, 9m Grandma and 3m Little Timmy, it will be in a dangerous position to face even the PS3 with 5m units of all Little Timmy.

That said, I have no numbers or research to back up this speculation (and speculation is exactly what it is) however time will tell us how much truth it holds in the form of software/game sales. I would be gratified to learn that my speculation is proved false as time passes.