Blu-ray will be 50% of market by 2012 implies Blu Ray will have a higher install base than DVD

Blu Ray will have a higher install base than DVD does not imply Blu Ray will have 50% of market.

These guys aren't even sure what they're predicting

DVD down 13% in 2009

Blu-Ray Not selling as well as expected

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Digital Download / Streaming on the rise...  hmm...

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I've always said this, Blu-Ray will not beat DvD's because of In-vehicle DVD players, Portable DVD players, and Other small handheld devices.

DVD: you can play it in almost every single room in your home, take it in the car/truck for a family trip, or use a program to convert it to your iPod / Zune / Phone.

Blu-Ray: chances are you only have 1 blu-ray player so that's a room you can watch it in, there aren't any In-vehicle or Portable BR players that I know of, and BR PC drives aren't to wide spread, not to mention the programs to convert them to iPod / Zune / Phone aren't as easy as a DVD converter, or well known.

You do realize that when DVD was in it's infancy it didn't have portable devices everywhere right?   You also do realize that Blu-Ray players can play DVDs.  So once the physical Blu-Ray player price drops it's only natural that in order to keep the price relatively high on the portable players they will throw in a Blu-Ray drive.   

What you're saying is like DVD never had a chance to over take VHS because they made TVs that did both.   All that's really doing is delaying the inevitable.  

Ill believe it when i see it,

and the only way i feel this can really happen is if we see studios stop releasing features on dvd and only putting them on dvd forcing us to HD

side note, why does the over take of DVD coincide with blueray consortiums faze out date for HD over analog (component video). if you dont know by that date blueray players will not be produced with the capacity to use component, and the ones that are in 2011 will be limited in resolution to sd, unless changes are made to the current blueray spec time line,

there is a good write up of all this on arstech

The time frame of the way things are coming out VHS - DvD what 25 years?  DvD - Blu-Ray 10 years.. by the time Blu-Ray portable is to come out, something better will be out.. and there is already new formats being made..

And it's not the point of what will be out, it's the point of whats out Now.. See I can go into a store like many parents, look at a movie selection and grab a DvD knowing I can play this almost everywhere, if I pick of the Blu-Ray I know I can watch it in A Room, and wait for the day I get more units to play it in...

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There is a huge difference between VHS to DvD and DvD to Blu-ay

See with DvD vs VHS you had allot of +'s to the average consumer: Smaller, last almost forever, skip scenes, no rewind, better picture, widescreen picture ( there was a huge difference in picture).

With DvD vs BluRay you have what the average consumer is not really looking for: Storage, Non compressed Sound, better picture (there is not the huge difference in picture from dvd to br with upscale dvd players)

I really hope that doesnt happen. Blu Ray is expensive.

Not really now, they have plenty of great movies for $14.99 or less, and the players are cheaper now.

The next + will be a portable HDD/Player all in one. If you can take your collection of movies with you in half the space of a DVD case and hold 100+ movies, will you need the discs? People are already doing it with music. For example for 2008 I believe fewer than 50% of teenages bought a physical music disc. That means you don't even need the player, you just need the storage device.

1000 GB 2.5" discs will be available this year and 2000GB 2.5" discs will be coming down in price by the time 2012 rolls around. That means you could store between 100-200 high quality movies on the same device. People are becoming very familiar with the idea of digital distribution so all it would take is someone to nail the DRM side and the whole business is wide open.

Again you're looking at reasons why 'today' DVD still is a fine option for most people.  Two years from now things will be drastically different.  Blu-Ray in my opinion will be most likely the last physical format.  It may never see the absolute widespread success the DVD did but it almost certainly will gain over 50% of the market share especially as the price for Blu Ray movies lower and Blu Ray players continue to lower.

Digital Distribution is doing better but is still quite a ways off from mainstream popularity.  Internet speeds are still too slow to make it as viable and useful as it can be.

^ i doubt bluray is the last one, they can make em smaller, lighter, more durable, more storage capacity (the discs), more portable, etc (the player)

eventually people will upgrade, but i seriously doubt itll be drastic within 2, 3, or even 5 years. there really is no must-have value in a bluray player as there was for the switch from VHS to DVD.