Xbox 360 sales for all of 2008: 11,119,806

Xbox 360 total sales and YOY advantage thus far 2009: 4,110,033 (695,572)

Xbox 360 total sales thus far last year: 3,414,461

So the Xbox 360 is more than on track so far this year to exceed the last years total.

Xbox 360 sales remainder 2008: 7,922,561

Xbox 360 sales needed to reach target of 13M: 8,889,967

Xbox 360 sales are up YOY: 20.37%

Xbox 360 sales need to be up YOY for the remainder: 12.21%

So the Xbox 360 be up slightly to best its previous years totals to reach 13M units from here.

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It'll be hard to replicate the previous years holiday season. Its really a double question of 'can they?' and 'how' will they do it? Sales will probably be down YOY once we hit the area last year when the price cuts came into effect.

So:

• Do you think they can do it without a price cut with bundles alone?
• A smaller price cut and a big bundle? (Say for instance a repeat of the 2007 Forza, MUA and Perfect dark combo only this time its Halo ODST, Forza 3 and Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2 along with a smallish price cut in American and none for the EU
• A larger price cut and a little bundle. Say $150 Arcade and $225-$250 Premium?

Man you really must love Microsoft

Splinter Cell: Conviction, Halo 3: ODST, Left 4 Dead 2 and Forza Motorsport 3 so far are Microsoft's first party releases for 2009. That's a pretty strong line up of first party, especially since Halo 3: ODST is the most wanted game out of E3.

3rd party games like Modern Warfare 2 and Beatles Rockband will sell very will, both have some form of exclusive content.

There is also rumors of Microsoft making the Elite the standard 360 in the fall and cutting the premium. They would probably cut the price of the remaining premiums heavily to sell them out, thus boosting the 360 sales.

And then all the things they are doing with LIVE, I think it is possible.

I don't know, despite sales being up this year they do seem sluggish, I'm leaning more towards 38 million

it's starting to look like it. in the end, though, it all depends on how the system performs during the holiday season.... it has a strong lineup coming, so things are looking good.

This thread isnt really showing any love for microsoft as much as looking at the hard numbers.  You could take lessons from Squilliam on how to make a thread without bias, as I haven't seen a single thread from you that isn't foaming from the mouth with love for Sony.

man this is a tuff one, but im going to say if they go 169/269 arcade (that has hd)/ pro (that has been upgraded in HD space) they will make it, maybe 500k more then 13

if they only raise the specs/ bundle im going with 11-12 but beating last year

really I think it will be telling based on the sales in october.

Definitely stands a better chance than the PS3. I really like your figures and possibilities. This fall may see a price cut still, and definitely some hardware upgrades (HDD). The games are also looking incredible and a good holiday bundle will do wonders.

You saved me having to write exactly the same thing, thanks! His avatar is even more creepy now...

The 360 is in with a great shot of 40million...If Mass Effect 2 drops early enough next year, it will help a little. The 360 will have a great holiday but it all depends on pricing and various bundling.

After doing the math, it simply isn't possible. Even if the Xbox 360 sells 5 million in the months of November/December like last year, it still needs to make up 4.2 million. Selling 150k over the next 19 weeks only nets it 2.8 million. 150k a week is unlikely as well.

38 million is the best you can hope for.