Halo and Bioshock are enough to vault it over the upcoming PS3 lineup.

Face it, the 360 already has one GotY candidate and another possible one coming in Mass Effect. The Wii has a GotY candidate in SMG and another great franchise in SSBB.

What does the PS3 have? UT3? That's a PC-dominated franchise and it won't change with the third installment. R&C? A good franchise but hardly Earth-shattering. Uncharted? It could be a sleeper hit but I don't see it doing any better than BioShock, which will be outsold by both Halo and Mass Effect.

While there are a few PS3 games I'm looking forward to playing, at least I'm realistic enough to realize that both the 360 and Wii have vastly superior lineups coming.

I would consider UT3 and unproven IP.  I mean UT sells like crazy on computers, but that doesn't mean it's going to sell like crazy on consoles.

Lets stop arguing about lineups - its pointless.

I want to see more discussion about the effects that the PS3 $399 release will have on the market - long term, effects on MS, etc.

With all the 'PS3 $399' threads/news popping up, I think this will end up being one of the worst kept industry "secrets" ever...

...

Here are some more comments that could be food for thought:

1/ What DIRECT result will this have on Sony's stock price? Up or down?

2/ Can they now make their ambitious PS3 fiscal forecast? I still say no, but they will get closer. Its much more competitive environment than Sony had with the PS2.

3/ How does this affect what happens after the holidays? Can they keep momentum going? Will the newly released titles for the PS3 keep momentum running?

Has Sony ever kept a secret Shams...hasn't that been part of their delimma...that they have no bombshells (or big bangs) since insider sources always leak the info first...what does nintendo do to keep their employees and partners so tight lipped?

Doesn't 360 have 3?  Bioshock, Halo 3 and Mass Efect?  I mean i know people would be hesitant to give it to the third game in a system... but still.

I'm not sure a 399 PS3 will have much long term effect on the market.  I expect that most of the $399 market has been cleaned out by the 360 and the Wii... and the only people left in the market for a $399 console fall into 1 of 3 categories.

 1) Multi-platofrom gamers who want to have another console and want the PS3 as well but are waiting for a pricedrop.

2) People who want a PS3, and ONLY a PS3 and are waiting for the price to drop.

3) People who want a PS3 or 360 but value the PS3 a lot more, or were waiting for RROD to be fixed.

That's why cheaper systems tend to win the day, they're at the price point that makes the decision for the consumers who will only buy one console.  It'll boost PS3 short term sales, but i'm not sure it'll have much effect on long term sales unless it convinces publishers who are about to jump ship to stay on, or attracts new devs.

 they probably are playing SMG and Brawl already =(

Now that's the truth. That's why I own Berkshire Hathaway stock.

Now, Nintendo started this generation with about 8 billion in their warchest. I don't recall seeing any numbers for Sony.  

Nice topic shams, here are my thoughts, quick because at the moment I'm at work. If the 399 € PS3 comes in Europe at that time, Sony will have a bummer Christmas. Thats a price point I know personally know some people jumping on board off the PS3 and have no doubt that a lot of others will to. It will not be Wii levels but it will crack the 360, big time. Therefore it is the right move from Sony. There wasn't a price cut in Europe yet, so it is at their disposal.

America: It will help sales, but I doubt it will crack the 360 there. I don't think Microsoft will respond until early next year (march-june - GTA). Nintendo wouldn't be bothered, they have problems to keep up with demand. I can see them overproducing next year because (same level of demand). Think they will cut the price of the Wii in the span of Apr-Aug. Nintendo generally doesn't care what others on the market do.

If as rumoured, Sony bring out this 40Gb PS3 at $399 in the US, €399 in Europe and £299 in the UK, then I reckon Sony will have a bumper PS3 Christmas this year in both Europe and the US.  Sales in the US may not equal Wii sales until Xmas, but I reckon the PS3 sales will be more than the 360 throughout the holiday period.  I reckon European sales figures may even be similar to the Wii figures for Xmas if this was to happen.  Not only this, but there will be a large number of sales WW for just the Blu-Ray player alone.  This would be a very smart move from Sony to get the sales racked up in time for the start of the big years for for the PS3 in 2008/09.

Nintendo needs to stop holding onto its cash and do something with it. It's great to know they aren't putting all of their chips on the line all of the time, but I can't imagine them ever needing the kind of cash they keep.

OT: I've become a bit warmer to this $400 PS3 theory. It didn't seem likely at first, but the mounting rumors are changing that. It's been the case before that Sony just can't keep a secret, and this could very well be one of those times. But barring that, Sony is in a pssition where they do need to do something.

We really don't know what it costs to make a PS3 since analysts base their estimates on the price of parts as they can be bought, not what it costs Sony to make them. Really, Sony is very likely taking a hit, but we can't judge how big it is.

Besides, awhile back someone at Sony (too drunk to check) said they'd have an aswer to the priedrop matter by November. The clearance sale was admited to not being a real price drop by Kaz, so there's still a question to answer. Maybe a cheaper model is that answer, we'll see.