Ok, lets have a saleswise discussion about this gen 360's motion tracking camera, and last gen PS2 motion tracking camera.

The NATAL and EYE TOY.

I tried to do some research, but I couldn't find any Eye Toy total data regarding all the amount of camera's out there on the PS2. But I estimate it to be around ~12 million.

So, a relatively cheap camera on the last gen dominant platform, managed to get about 9,5% attach rate.

IF NATAL manages to get the same attach rate as EYE TOY did, with *let's be generous* 360's total lifetime data being half of the PS2, which means 62 million, NATAL would sell 5,8 Million units.

So my question is: Can a camera released for a second placed console, get an attach rate as high as the camera for the last gen dominant platform and get into its levels or even surpass it?

EXTRA question: Shall we call it a success with lifetime sales around 6 million units due to the small userbase of the 360 compared with the PS2?

Diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiicusssssss

12 million eyetoys? I highly doubt that. Do you have any links to show how you managed to estimate it at that.

@ TWRoO

Unfortunately no, that just an estimation made in 23 seconds based on the very few data of Vgchartz... Hope it doesn't get much away from reality, but hey, the 360 is highly doubtful to reach 62 million LFT, yet I mentioned it.

IF Eye number are too much up, so are the 360 sales too. At the end, it shall be more or less the same.... if we exclude the case that eyetoy sold MORE than 12 million.

The positioning of NATAL is unclear atm. If the launch is gonna be as big as ms claim, to be as big as a 360 launch, then we can expect it to be bundled into all new SKU's. which means atleast 10 million natals will be sold boxed in. If they hit the magical $49-69 price tag( in my opinion) with the natal add-on.. then we can expect another 10 million users lapping it up..

Bundled in sales: 10-15 million
Not bundled in sales:5-7million

It all depends on the software really...

There is only sales data for 1 major eyetoy game on VGChartz.... and it has it at 3.86 million. I doubt the perepheral has sold much more than 6 million.
(Seems I was wrong, sales are about 10.5 million.... I don't think Natal will manage that figure, it could do 6 million but it depends on the price)

So if the reality is that you doubled eyetoy sales, then to base things on attach ratio your X360 estimate would also have to be double what is reasonable.... and I am pretty sure the X360 is going to exceed 31 million. (probably end around 55 million)

not gonna happen. No way will it hit 12 million and i highly doubt ET actually made 12 million sales anyway.

Considering the way the market for casual/mainstream gaming has gone 6 million would be amazing for any company not named Nintendo. If the gen. ends in 2012 it might even beat 6.

Geez.. it's even on wikipedia:

As of November 6, 2008, the EyeToy has sold 10.5 million units worldwide. (i'm guessing shipped)

with source...

Depends on how much software support it gets and if it is bundled or not.

No.

360 is not a mommy waggle type console, 3rd party's wont sink much $ into this. They are better of making casual games for the wii and hardcore for the 360.

MS alone lacks the 1st party dev capability to make it a big success on their own.

THIS! They just can't offer what you can get on the Wii, other wise why switch?! Also, I feel they will have to downplay the hype for it as well, cause if anything this gen has taught us is that imaginations are BIGGER then reality. I Really think they are going to have issues like the Wii did early on...HELL like alot of 3rd parties at times STILL do.