Wii has been struggling the first half of the year in japan because of very few new big games. Biggest game of the year so far is an several year old port, Monster Hunter G which stands at 220 k sold so far. The rest of the games released has been old ports or nichegames (even if I hoped for bigger sales for Muramasa and Arc Rise Fantasia)

That´s about to change now. Just around the corner are new heavyhitters from both Nintendo themselves and GASP thirdparties! You could say that there are two waves of huge releases for Wii, one during the summer and one coming up this autumn or christmas.

For the summer: (Potentional millionseller written in capital letters)

25 June: WII SPORTS RESORT with motion +

23 July: Punch Out Wii ,  Dragon Ball: Revenge of King Piccolo

1 August: MONSTER HUNTER 3 with hardware bundle + new color

For the holidays:

29 November: Samurai Warriors 3

Tba: NEW SUPER MARIO BROS WII

Tba: WII FIT PLUS

Tba: Mario and Sonic at the Winter Olympics

This christmas or Winter 2010?

Tales of Graces

Resident Evil: Darkside Chronicles

Final Fantasy CC: The Crystal Bearers

What a lineup! The four huge potentional millionsellers are WII SPORTS RESORT, MONSTER HUNTER 3, NEW SUPER MARIO BROS WII and WII FIT PLUS but I think some of the other smaller games could be hits as well. The best part is that thirdparties finally seem to bring something to the table for the consoleleading Wii in Japan. Could Tales of Graces and Samurai Warriors 3 have a shot at half a million in lifetime sales?

After a struggling start of the year I dare say things are looking stellar for Wii in Japan with this lineup. The big question will be just how big Wii hardwaresales will be in the second half of the year with a new color and all? Will there be a K-O after this one-two punch?

By the way hardwaresales for Wii so far this year are 580,993 according to Media Create.

(There are of course more games being released than these but I wrote down the ones I thought most important, if you know some more fill me in.)

Its already been a KO in Japan as far as I'm concerned. Funny thing is after the huge releases from Capcom and Sega for the HD consoles, Wii still has sold more consoles in 09 without any real notable releases. That says it all.

no the Wii is dooomed!

Finally, an interesting topic.

By the way, what's the WSR hype like in Japan?

These games aren't going to be a knockout punch for the Wii because the Japanese love themselves some hd gaming and when it comes to hd gaming they love hd gaming on the ps3 the most which also has some heavy hitters headed its way in Japan later this year in Gran Turismo 5 and Final Fantasy XIII.

My current prediction for end of gen console sales in Japan.

Wii -- 20 million
PS3 -- 12 million
360 -- 2 million

Those games will help Nintendo win this gen in Japan but they're not going to change the fact that a lot of Japanese gamers enjoy playing games in hd and their favorite hd console is the hometown boy the PS3.

It is going to be truly epic

Now, now, no one said that the sales of HD consoles are going down to zero because of those games. Heh.

Gran Turismo 5 and Final Fantasy XIII will be huge and help PS3 sell but in my opinion even these two games are no match for Wii´s upcoming lineup this year. It´s not even certain that those two games will be released this year. Nothing is confirmed yet I believe.

Of course HD consoles will continue selling in Japan but I feel that Wii´s 2009 lineup will confirm (if someone still doubt it) that Wii is the console winner in Japan this gen.

     I think this gen will definetly be over for Microsoft and Nintendo by November 2012, and I think it will last a little longer for the PS3.

I think the PS3 will be at 5 million units sold in Japan by the end of March 2010.  And, I think GT5 will be out by the end of this year releasing in November '09 to coincide with the 10th anniversary of GT2 and the fifth anniversary of GT4.  Its release date will be officially confirmed at TGS '09 and FFXIII will release in December.

Here's how I see the PS3 reaching twelve million.  GT5 and FFXIII will take it into the five million range.  FF Versus XIII will take it into the 6 to 7 million range.  This growth will cause most Japanese companies that want to make HD games to work mainly on PS3 exclusives as no game is really going to give the 360 much of a significant bump in Japan especially after GT5, FFXIII, and Versus come out in Japan.  If Versus doesn't quite move the PS3 to 7 million on its own, by the time FFXIV releases  in Japan there will definitely be 7.5 million PS3s sold there.

Its going to take a couple of "if"s to move PS3 up to 12 million.  Capcom hasn't denied the possibilty of a Monster Hunter coming to PS3 (so I feel that if the PS3 grows as I've already predicted that will lead to a Monster Hunter maybe Monster Hunter 4 on PS3) and with the success of XIII, Versus, and XIV, Square will probably want to bring another exclusive to the PS3.  If that is Kingdom Hearts III, then that puts the PS3 at 12 million in Japan by the end of the gen. 

The PSP has done it, and I am almost certain the PS3 will as well. 

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