That's very interesting because directly it applies to myself.  Of course, I already own a Wii, but I totally ignored Wii Sports.  After seeing the archery and parachuting intro in WSR, I'm actually pumped for that game.  Who'da thought.  So I could see people not overly impressed with WS finally take the plunge and buy a Wii based on WSR/WM+.  We'll see though.

We won't have holiday sales to explain natural increases in hardware, so any significant change in console sales should be a fair indicator of how well WSR can directly move consoles.

As for the theory that there is a significant chunk of consumers "holding out" for an improved version of Wii Sports; it seems flawed considering that Wii Sports comes with the Wii. Although for many buying a Wii post WSR, picking up a copy of that as well seems like a pretty easy choice for those that want the Wii experience.

But EA Sports Active sold 800k units in 3 weeks and hardly gave the Wii any significant hardware boost...

^The thing is, no matter what big game comes out, a significant amount of sales (definitely over 50% or even 70%) will come from people who already own the console.

Seeing how EA Sports Active did beyond week 3, it wouldn't be surprising that the Wii sales are hardly any good right now. IMO, for SW to push HW, it has to sell over 200K in a week to have any noticeable effect.

Someone brought up Halo 3 as a reason why Wii Sports Resort will sell Wiis. That is a flawed argument. Halo 3 was the first Halo on the 360 and how many 360 were on the market when it released. Think about 15 million. With Wii Sports Resort you have 50 million consoles already sold. And like 3/4 of them have Wii Sports packed in or sold as is the case in Japan. Purchasing a Wii for motion controlled sports minigames has happened already. Most mall casuals already believe that Wii is 1:1 controls because that is how Nintendo has marketed the Wii. Back to Halo for a moment. I dont expect to see 360 sales to jump when Halo 3:ODST or Halo:Reach or Halo 4 release on the 360.

If anything I could see Wii Sports Resort vastly underperform Wii Sports because a lot of people I know played Wii Sports a little and have since moved on to bigger and better things after the novelty wore off.

Same reason Wii has always sold, people playing it and thinking its cool, with Wii Sports resort people have a new game to show their friends when they go over to their house, they see something they think is fun and want to play it themselves at home, so they go out and buy a Wii

Whilst i agree with the OP to a point, as most WSR buyers possibly bought into the whole Wii thing with the original Wii sports, i also think there were those who weren't convinced by Wii sports who may be tempted to "take the plunge" with WSR and m+. I can see a fairly decent and sustained boost just not the massive numbers some people may expect.

This. It's all about word of mouth and convincing people to finally get a Wii.

I think it'll sell buttloads of software, more then even Wii Fit perhaps - but I don't think we will see such a sizeable mark-up in HW sales. And definatly not a huge spike but rather a small constant increase.

The next big HW seller for the wii will be NSMB Wii - think of the huge DS crowd who bought the game for that and perhaps have not yet switched over.

You might not think it will make it to 30million but to say it doesn't have a chance is simply ignorance - if Nintendo plays their cards right WSR could easily pass 30 million (just like Wii Sports, Wii Play, and Mario Kart Wii have/will)