These rumors persist, because the companies involved Konami, and Square persistently send mixed signals. Further more that is probably their intention. Getting Microsoft and Sony into a bidding war over their product only serves their needs. So yes Microsoft has been courting these developers for these two games. That is just sound business practice. Even if they do not get them they force Sony to defend them in the process spending even more money. Square and Konami are the real winners in this war.
However it is a valid argument that they are running out of maneuvering room. The longer they wait after a certain point the less they will get. The situation is a true curve. Right now the curve is at its highest point, and from this point on the value of any exclusivity or porting arrangement will diminish. Microsoft wants and needs that victory now. They want that arrangement to bolster sales for the holidays especially in Japan.
Further more the longer both Square and Konami wait the less they have to offer at the bargaining table. The longer they wait the less holiday sales they will drive. The longer they wait they will become more committed to their initial stance. Soon they will not be able to offer true exclusivity which is what Microsoft really wants, and will pay the most for. The longer they wait the less valuable a simultaneous port will be, and if they wait even longer they can only offer a delayed port. By that point Microsoft will offer next to nothing.
Given the forty gig revelations of the last few weeks it is questionable whether Sony is that committed to securing exclusive rights. Which nobody has yet confessed to actually existing. They seem far more intent on lowering the price of the console, and touting its technological specs. They might have effectively tossed in the towel which only strengthens the position of Microsoft at the bargaining table. Perhaps Square and Konami pushed Sony to the point where they broke.
I would say it is very plausible, but if we go another month and nothing develops then it is not going to ever be possible. Effectively Konami and Square would be pot committed. The reality is Microsoft wants full exclusivity the most and will pay a premium for it. However simultaneous launches and, delayed ports, or timed exclusivity will not fetch Square or Konami all that much. Microsoft would be looking towards the market in Japan.
The reality is Microsoft has no market position to defend in Japan. So getting the same thing Sony will get even on the same day will not help them. Nor will a delayed launch which will get them nothing. Even a timed exclusive is a modest gain. The consumer in Japan might simply bide their time and wait for the PS3 port. The result is the only way Microsoft is going to pay through the teeth which is what these companies want is for complete exclusivity. Beyond that Microsoft just isn't going to pay that much. The American, and European audiences are quite pleased as it seems with their current and future library as is.
This is not a unbelievable article. When you think about it this is just common sense. Microsoft is trying to buy exclusives from under Sony. Which they have done in the past. Both companies Konami and Square have gotten pretty cozy with Microsoft, and they have been sending out mixed signals. Which does point to waning commitment on their part to the PS3. Does anyone actually expect that Microsoft is not trying, and that these companies are not listening intently? The only real question is what will it take for Microsoft to get what it wants, and will they spend that. Which is what the article is talking about.
This is less rumor and more about intelligent speculation. This would be the time when Microsoft would make its best pitch at these developers, and this would be the time when these developers would have to be motivated to reach a deal before the value of their games begin to decline. Microsoft might very well be close, but then again thats also the time when things fall apart. Where parties reach a point where they can go no further. The gremlin is in the fine details as it were.
Personally I am leaning towards Microsoft securing these titles. They simply have more to offer right now, and they desperately want them. Paying fifty million dollars to secure each one of these titles might be all it takes to push Sony over the cliff. Once they are gone will there be any relevant software defenses left for the PS3. The added bonus is they might become a serious contender in the Japanese market. Thats a premium worth having. Meanwhile I think Sony was stuck making a tough judgment call. Focus on the price, or focus on securing software. They seem to have gone with price.
I wonder if this is what the G4 story was about. That would be a massive story. Further more it could explain lawyers asking for a little more time to iron out the final details.
