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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Malstrom: "the whimper of hardcore dreams".

Squilliam said:
bluesinG said:
I agree that Malstrom's writing style is often obnoxious. However, the basic argument that he's making boils down to this:

1. The 360 and PS3 motion-control interfaces are quite different from each other.

2. The PC does not have a motion-control interface.

3. Therefore, it would be very difficult to port motion-controlled games across the 360, PS3, and PC. (From 1 and 2.)

4. It's important for third-party developers to make profit from their games.

5. Because HD games are expensive to develop, it's very difficult to make a profit from them if you don't release them on multiple platforms.

6. Therefore, developers will not develop many motion-controlled games for the 360 or PS3. (From 3, 4, and 5.)

That argument makes sense to me, although I think Malstrom might be missing one thing here: Because the Wii and PS3 motion-control interfaces are rather similar, third-party developers may develop Wii-PS3 multiplatform motion-controlled games.

Or am I missing a major problem with Malstrom's basic argument here?

1. The PS3 interface feeds off Wii M+ development. The middleware comany used for M+ is used for Sony. I cannot comment on what Microsoft is doing as it seems more internal.

2. The PC is less important than ever for the consoles. I doubt the PC market has expanded to nearly the same extent that the HD consoles have essentially starting from 0.

3. I don't think at this point it would matter. Programming is not the major expense with HD games and like the above, the PC is less important than it used to be. The legacy controls are still available as well.

4. It goes without saying really.

5. See above.

6. See above, but the cost of the controls will be marginal and the initial attempts will not need a large adoption as the console manufacturers would subsidise such development.

I agree with most of what you said. Some responses:

First, related to your point 3, I agree that gamepad controllers will be around next generation, and I think that third-party developers will continue to support them. I don't think that Malstrom is predicting otherwise. He is simply predicting that few motion-controlled games will be developed for the 360 or PS3.

Second, regarding your points 2, 3, and 5, I disagree with your stance on the importance of porting. I think that currently being able to easily port between 360 and PS3 (and PC) is a MAJOR incentive for third-party developers to invest in HD games. Given that the Microsoft motion-control interface is very different from the PS3 and Wii interfaces (no buttons, joysticks, or physical controller of any kind), I think that it would be very difficult, or impossible, to port many motion-controlled PS3 or Wii games to the 360. And I think this would be a major disincentive for third parties to develop motion-controlled games for the 360 (unless MS revamps their interface to include a "360-mote"). I agree that MS and Sony will initially subsidize the development of some motion-controlled games, but it doesn't make sense for them to do that forever, and if the subsidies stop I think it will dramatically reduce or completely wipe out support for motion controls.

Third, I think we agree that the similarity of the PS3 and Wii motion-control interfaces might lead to the cross-platform development of Wii-PS3 motion-controlled games. Which would be just fine by me!



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Legend11 said:

Natal hasn't even been released and we know next to nothing about the games that will be coming with it or how accurate it'll end up being and yet some people are already passing judgment on it. At least wait and see what the final product is going to be before calling it a failure and bashing the hell out of it. This entire thread is just useless speculation.

Avinash_Tyagi, based on your posts in this thread you seem to know a lot about Natal.  So could you please tell us about the final product.  What exactly is going to be packaged with it (what is the name of the games compilation if that's what it will be)?  What are the development tools and libraries like for it?  What's the name of the games that are currently being worked on for it (especially at Rare)?  It's not being targetted at the expanded audience?  Why?  I'm asking because it flies in the face of everything that was shown at E3 so obviously you must have some insider knowledge.  Did you see it behind closed doors at E3 and if so are your comments based on something that was said there?  Since you know so much about it spill the beans.

If it wasn't ready why show it.

 

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Funny read. I must commend Malstrom on his ability to get HD fanboys riled up. Claiming to not care about something but then posting repeatedly in a thread about it is pretty contradictory.



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bluesinG said:
Squilliam said:

1. The PS3 interface feeds off Wii M+ development. The middleware comany used for M+ is used for Sony. I cannot comment on what Microsoft is doing as it seems more internal.

2. The PC is less important than ever for the consoles. I doubt the PC market has expanded to nearly the same extent that the HD consoles have essentially starting from 0.

3. I don't think at this point it would matter. Programming is not the major expense with HD games and like the above, the PC is less important than it used to be. The legacy controls are still available as well.

4. It goes without saying really.

5. See above.

6. See above, but the cost of the controls will be marginal and the initial attempts will not need a large adoption as the console manufacturers would subsidise such development.

I agree with most of what you said. Some responses:

First, related to your point 3, I agree that gamepad controllers will be around next generation, and I think that third-party developers will continue to support them. I don't think that Malstrom is predicting otherwise. He is simply predicting that few motion-controlled games will be developed for the 360 or PS3.

Second, regarding your points 2, 3, and 5, I disagree with your stance on the importance of porting. I think that currently being able to easily port between 360 and PS3 (and PC) is a MAJOR incentive for third-party developers to invest in HD games. Given that the Microsoft motion-control interface is very different from the PS3 and Wii interfaces (no buttons, joysticks, or physical controller of any kind), I think that it would be very difficult, or impossible, to port many motion-controlled PS3 or Wii games to the 360. And I think this would be a major disincentive for third parties to develop motion-controlled games for the 360 (unless MS revamps their interface to include a "360-mote"). I agree that MS and Sony will initially subsidize the development of some motion-controlled games, but it doesn't make sense for them to do that forever, and if the subsidies stop I think it will dramatically reduce or completely wipe out support for motion controls.

Third, I think we agree that the similarity of the PS3 and Wii motion-control interfaces might lead to the cross-platform development of Wii-PS3 motion-controlled games. Which would be just fine by me!

I think about these issues in economic terms, I think around the margins. The important point I have to make is that the cost of adding a PS3 mote interface to an existing game which would have already been created is the cost of designing and programming vs the benefit of using it. Since the cost of the programming is marginal with the use of essentially free Wii M+ development, then even a small userbase of PS3 Mote users would justify the expense because the expense would be extremely minor. Thats the motion component right there, as far as the pointer goes; the airmouse = wiimote = mouse. They are practically one and the same. Supporting it would be like adding mouse support to a PS3 game.Lastly, this is a very important point; There does NOT need to be a Wii game in the picture to use the interface and/or middleware.

As for Natal, I simply have no information so I cannot judge it either way.



Tease.

Squilliam said:
bluesinG said:
Squilliam said:

1. The PS3 interface feeds off Wii M+ development. The middleware comany used for M+ is used for Sony. I cannot comment on what Microsoft is doing as it seems more internal.

2. The PC is less important than ever for the consoles. I doubt the PC market has expanded to nearly the same extent that the HD consoles have essentially starting from 0.

3. I don't think at this point it would matter. Programming is not the major expense with HD games and like the above, the PC is less important than it used to be. The legacy controls are still available as well.

4. It goes without saying really.

5. See above.

6. See above, but the cost of the controls will be marginal and the initial attempts will not need a large adoption as the console manufacturers would subsidise such development.

I agree with most of what you said. Some responses:

First, related to your point 3, I agree that gamepad controllers will be around next generation, and I think that third-party developers will continue to support them. I don't think that Malstrom is predicting otherwise. He is simply predicting that few motion-controlled games will be developed for the 360 or PS3.

Second, regarding your points 2, 3, and 5, I disagree with your stance on the importance of porting. I think that currently being able to easily port between 360 and PS3 (and PC) is a MAJOR incentive for third-party developers to invest in HD games. Given that the Microsoft motion-control interface is very different from the PS3 and Wii interfaces (no buttons, joysticks, or physical controller of any kind), I think that it would be very difficult, or impossible, to port many motion-controlled PS3 or Wii games to the 360. And I think this would be a major disincentive for third parties to develop motion-controlled games for the 360 (unless MS revamps their interface to include a "360-mote"). I agree that MS and Sony will initially subsidize the development of some motion-controlled games, but it doesn't make sense for them to do that forever, and if the subsidies stop I think it will dramatically reduce or completely wipe out support for motion controls.

Third, I think we agree that the similarity of the PS3 and Wii motion-control interfaces might lead to the cross-platform development of Wii-PS3 motion-controlled games. Which would be just fine by me!

I think about these issues in economic terms, I think around the margins. The important point I have to make is that the cost of adding a PS3 mote interface to an existing game which would have already been created is the cost of designing and programming vs the benefit of using it. Since the cost of the programming is marginal with the use of essentially free Wii M+ development, then even a small userbase of PS3 Mote users would justify the expense because the expense would be extremely minor. Thats the motion component right there, as far as the pointer goes; the airmouse = wiimote = mouse. They are practically one and the same. Supporting it would be like adding mouse support to a PS3 game.Lastly, this is a very important point; There does NOT need to be a Wii game in the picture to use the interface and/or middleware.

As for Natal, I simply have no information so I cannot judge it either way.

I agree with everything you said there. I know that motion-controlled games would not HAVE to be ported between PS3 and Wii, but I do think there would be a strong incentive for that. It would be possible to develop PS3-only motion-controlled games, but I don't think there would be much incentive for third-parties to do that (except for games that are subsidized by Sony). Just like third-parties are not currently developing games for the PS Eye.



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Lastly, this is a very important point; There does NOT need to be a Wii game in the picture to use the interface and/or middleware.


Except if a company is using Wii M+ libraires and is creating a motion control game in the first place, and has the choice of bringing it to the Wii with a 50 million plus install base, or a PS3 Purple wand base of maybe a million, the likelihood will be that most developers will bring it to the Wii and not to the PS3



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi said:
Lastly, this is a very important point; There does NOT need to be a Wii game in the picture to use the interface and/or middleware.


Except if a company is using Wii M+ libraires and is creating a motion control game in the first place, and has the choice of bringing it to the Wii with a 50 million plus install base, or a PS3 Purple wand base of maybe a million, the likelihood will be that most developers will bring it to the Wii and not to the PS3

Something like Fallout: New Vegas doesn't really give them the option of making a Wii version. That doesn't mean they won't want to add support for the interface. If its the future they'll have to use the interface anyway, so sooner is perhaps better than later.



Tease.

Squilliam said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Even if you think he's a jerk, he's also right, so much of the gaing base for the HD twins is dependent on being able to port between the PC/360/PS3, games like Final Fantasy and the like are coming to multiple systems. However Motion Controls, being the future wave of gaming as made evident by this E3 will fracture that, no longer will it be possible to easily port from NATAL to Purple Wand, this means that developers cannot rely on the sales of two or three systems to recoup costs. No longer will they be able to say PS3+360 market is greater than Wii, because you won't be able to port between PS3 and 360 easily.

Purple wand can port the Wii M+ libraries. All the present/future interface technologies share a commonality with the mouse in the pointing aspect and the motion, gesture controls are just abstractions of a button interface. The commonality remains, the technologies are still port friendly and the whoring will go on with ports everywhere!

 

Unless Sony has a nunchuck, they can't even port Wii Sports Resort.



 

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Companies have spent the last two years porting games between the PS2 / PSP and Wii, one with no motion controls at all to one with motion controls. Further companies are already porting Wii games with motion controls to PS3 / 360.

Why would these consoles getting motion controls suddenly make these ports unviable, if they already port freely regardless of control interface?



Squilliam said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Lastly, this is a very important point; There does NOT need to be a Wii game in the picture to use the interface and/or middleware.


Except if a company is using Wii M+ libraires and is creating a motion control game in the first place, and has the choice of bringing it to the Wii with a 50 million plus install base, or a PS3 Purple wand base of maybe a million, the likelihood will be that most developers will bring it to the Wii and not to the PS3

Something like Fallout: New Vegas doesn't really give them the option of making a Wii version. That doesn't mean they won't want to add support for the interface. If its the future they'll have to use the interface anyway, so sooner is perhaps better than later.


That will only happen if a company feels its worth it to redo some of their older games for motion controls, however if one is building a game from scratch with the intent to use motion controls on it, they'll pick the larger install base of the Wiimote over the Purple wand



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)