Less than NSMB DS, greater than Galaxy.
I'd say 10 million+. It will hard to match the NSMB DS's sales due to its late release date.
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Without online, maybe 3-6 million. Many will just wait for Galaxy 2.
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I feel it will outsell Mario Galaxy, but undersell MarioKart. In other words - it'll appeal to all the Super Mario fans, and then some... but it can't touch the blue-ocean that MarioKart Wii has...
I would say 6 million as the low end.
Online will not make or break any nintendo game.
10 million through the end of 2010 and an additional 2 million every year till Nintendo replaces the Wii.
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