By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

txrattlesnake on 27 May 2009
thx1139 said:
txrattlesnake said:
HappySqurriel said:

There are several problems with the PS3 retaining sales strenght much past the begining of the next generation, and many of them are based on the market position it currently holds (both in terms of sales as well as strategy) and the difficulty of changing the way consumers see a product after it has been established.

The PS3 is currently an elitest early adopter product with sales that don't justify much exclusive third party support, and it will (probably) always be too expensive for the luddite late-adopters who buy late generation consoles because they're (amazingly) inexpensive. The kind of gamer who bought a 6+ year old PS2 at (roughly) $100 to play mass-market games like Guitar Hero and/or licenceware is not going to be all that excited to buy a 5 year old PS3 for $250 to play Killzone 2 when all the early adopters get excited about the minute details of next generation gaming; and to make matters worse, the gamer who buys a 6+ year old system is probably likely to be a late-adopter in other areas (like HDTV and Surround Sound) which limits the "Value" argument of the PS3.

 


     A $250.00 PS3 (being the only console that gets recognizable ports of Next gen games) will fair pretty well against a $400.00 to $500.00 Nextbox for the first couple of years of the Next gen. 


Your kidding yourself thinking that the NextBox will launch higher than $400.  Sony showed what a mistake that was and MS will not repeat that mistake.  Not to mention why would publishers port NextBox games to the PS3 and ignore the 360 when the 360 will continue to be sold and already will have sold more than the PS3. 


     It will be an expensive console because it will need to be able to play third-party ports of nextgen pc games as well as the 360 plays Bioshock and Fallout 3.  Most western game developers are primarily pc developers that love to put their games on the most advanced tech and Microsoft has to come up with a system powerful enough to give western pc developers the proper incentive to put their games on the next microsoft console.

     Because when Nextbox comes out with games like exclusive Gears 3 people won't have much reason to pick up a 360.  Also, the next-gen multi-plat games if available on both 360 and 720 would cut into early adaption of the expensive at launch 720, thus placing it in a position at launch similar to the one the PS3 has been in so far this gen.  When Microsoft decides to bring out their next console it is in their best interest to kill off the 360 as quickly as they killed off original xbox.

 

 



Around the Network
txrattlesnake on 27 May 2009
theRepublic said:
txrattlesnake said:

I'm not giving snakes a bad name. If the PS3 gets GT5 and then it gets FFXIII and they live up to their usuals sales levels as they should in Japan and in the end move the PS3 to where it has sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan, then it gets a couple of more Kojima games and Kingdom Hearts 3 on top of that will it pass the Wii in the end probably not. But with those games and the others that will follow in their wake, it will surely pass the 50 million mark.

So, those are my numbers 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after the release of FF Versus XIII bringing more Japanese exclusives to the PS3 as a result.

And 50 to 70 million PS3s sold worldwide LTD putting it firmly in second place when this gen ends.

twesterm said:

Whenever I see threads like this I like to bring out this handy little chart I made:

You can speculate all you want about prices and what can and can't happen, but this chart paints a pretty clear picture.  In order to overtake 360 worldwide sales in three years, the PS3 would have to outsell it by 51k per week every week for the next three years.  That just isn't going to happen.

The only reasonable figure on there is the 5 figure (260 weeks) and that's 31k per week every week for fives years.  By the time five years is over the "winner" of this generation will have already been long decided and it just won't matter.

So yeah, just accept there's absolutely zero chance of the PS3 overtaking the 360 in worldwide sales or in the Americas.  It's possible it may happen in Others, but even that can't happen for several years.

I'm not saying the PS3 is a failure by any means, I'm just say it can't "win" and it can't overtake the 360 in a reasonable amount of time.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853

     How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360?  It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years.

With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate.  Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales.



thx1139 on 27 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:
thx1139 said:


Your kidding yourself thinking that the NextBox will launch higher than $400.  Sony showed what a mistake that was and MS will not repeat that mistake.  Not to mention why would publishers port NextBox games to the PS3 and ignore the 360 when the 360 will continue to be sold and already will have sold more than the PS3. 


     It will be an expensive console because it will need to be able to play third-party ports of nextgen pc games as well as the 360 plays Bioshock and Fallout 3.  Most western game developers are primarily pc developers that love to put their games on the most advanced tech and Microsoft has to come up with a system powerful enough to give western pc developers the proper incentive to put their games on the next microsoft console.

     Because when Nextbox comes out with games like exclusive Gears 3 people won't have much reason to pick up a 360.  Also, the next-gen multi-plat games if available on both 360 and 720 would cut into early adaption of the expensive at launch 720, thus placing it in a position at launch similar to the one the PS3 has been in so far this gen.  When Microsoft decides to bring out their next console it is in their best interest to kill off the 360 as quickly as they killed off original xbox.

 

 

Again this MS will kill off the 360 when the NextBox comes out.  Lets please understand the truth the reason MS stopped production of the original Xbox was because it cost more to produce than retail sales price.  That isnt the case with the 360.  You also believe that MS will stop 3rd party developers from creating software for the 360 because it will hurt NextBox sales.  Thats nuts.  MS wants to continue to make a profit on the 360 and 360 software well into the NextBox's lifetime.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Viper1 on 27 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:
theRepublic said:

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853

     How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360?  It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years.

With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate.  Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales.

But it's about PS3, not Wii.

When PS3 starts selling like Wii at its best, then you might have a point.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

txrattlesnake on 27 May 2009
Viper1 said:
txrattlesnake said:
theRepublic said:

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853

     How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360?  It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years.

With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate.  Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales.

But it's about PS3, not Wii.

When PS3 starts selling like Wii at its best, then you might have a point.


     It might not be selling as rapidly as Wii at that point in time but when you have God of War III, new games from Insomniac, and other PS3 studios, Trico, Final Fantasy XIII, Versus XIIII, (especially if they get exclusive Kingdom Hearts 3), Kojima's next projects, and the other exclusives I've mentioned here, plus almost the same games that the 360 gets from Western developers while games like Gears 3, Fable 3 etc, are headed to 720, then PS3 would be selling well enough in that range.



Around the Network
thx1139 on 27 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:
theRepublic said:
txrattlesnake said:

I'm not giving snakes a bad name. If the PS3 gets GT5 and then it gets FFXIII and they live up to their usuals sales levels as they should in Japan and in the end move the PS3 to where it has sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan, then it gets a couple of more Kojima games and Kingdom Hearts 3 on top of that will it pass the Wii in the end probably not. But with those games and the others that will follow in their wake, it will surely pass the 50 million mark.

So, those are my numbers 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after the release of FF Versus XIII bringing more Japanese exclusives to the PS3 as a result.

And 50 to 70 million PS3s sold worldwide LTD putting it firmly in second place when this gen ends.

twesterm said:

Whenever I see threads like this I like to bring out this handy little chart I made:

You can speculate all you want about prices and what can and can't happen, but this chart paints a pretty clear picture.  In order to overtake 360 worldwide sales in three years, the PS3 would have to outsell it by 51k per week every week for the next three years.  That just isn't going to happen.

The only reasonable figure on there is the 5 figure (260 weeks) and that's 31k per week every week for fives years.  By the time five years is over the "winner" of this generation will have already been long decided and it just won't matter.

So yeah, just accept there's absolutely zero chance of the PS3 overtaking the 360 in worldwide sales or in the Americas.  It's possible it may happen in Others, but even that can't happen for several years.

I'm not saying the PS3 is a failure by any means, I'm just say it can't "win" and it can't overtake the 360 in a reasonable amount of time.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853

     How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360?  It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years.

With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate.  Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales.


And with exclusives that arent dramatically better or simply just dont move the hardware like you believe what happens then (Insert graphic of PS3 exclusives that will be saviors each scratched out because they didnt change the market dynamic)?

 



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

HappySqurriel on 27 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:
thx1139 said:
txrattlesnake said:
HappySqurriel said:

There are several problems with the PS3 retaining sales strenght much past the begining of the next generation, and many of them are based on the market position it currently holds (both in terms of sales as well as strategy) and the difficulty of changing the way consumers see a product after it has been established.

The PS3 is currently an elitest early adopter product with sales that don't justify much exclusive third party support, and it will (probably) always be too expensive for the luddite late-adopters who buy late generation consoles because they're (amazingly) inexpensive. The kind of gamer who bought a 6+ year old PS2 at (roughly) $100 to play mass-market games like Guitar Hero and/or licenceware is not going to be all that excited to buy a 5 year old PS3 for $250 to play Killzone 2 when all the early adopters get excited about the minute details of next generation gaming; and to make matters worse, the gamer who buys a 6+ year old system is probably likely to be a late-adopter in other areas (like HDTV and Surround Sound) which limits the "Value" argument of the PS3.

 


A $250.00 PS3 (being the only console that gets recognizable ports of Next gen games) will fair pretty well against a $400.00 to $500.00 Nextbox for the first couple of years of the Next gen.


Your kidding yourself thinking that the NextBox will launch higher than $400. Sony showed what a mistake that was and MS will not repeat that mistake. Not to mention why would publishers port NextBox games to the PS3 and ignore the 360 when the 360 will continue to be sold and already will have sold more than the PS3.


It will be an expensive console because it will need to be able to play third-party ports of nextgen pc games as well as the 360 plays Bioshock and Fallout 3. Most western game developers are primarily pc developers that love to put their games on the most advanced tech and Microsoft has to come up with a system powerful enough to give western pc developers the proper incentive to put their games on the next microsoft console.

Because when Nextbox comes out with games like exclusive Gears 3 people won't have much reason to pick up a 360. Also, the next-gen multi-plat games if available on both 360 and 720 would cut into early adaption of the expensive at launch 720, thus placing it in a position at launch similar to the one the PS3 has been in so far this gen. When Microsoft decides to bring out their next console it is in their best interest to kill off the 360 as quickly as they killed off original xbox.

 

 

List 5 PC games that will be released in 2009 that require more than a $125 Graphics card (HD 4770 for example) to play at low detail at 720p at higher than 30fps ...

Every year the minimum and recomended requirements of PC games gets a little "worse" and I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 to 3 years most PC games were designed around the capabilities of a 2 year old $500 laptop.



Viper1 on 27 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:
Viper1 said:
txrattlesnake said:
theRepublic said:

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853

     How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360?  It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years.

With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate.  Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales.

But it's about PS3, not Wii.

When PS3 starts selling like Wii at its best, then you might have a point.


     It might not be selling as rapidly as Wii at that point in time but when you have God of War III, new games from Insomniac, and other PS3 studios, Trico, Final Fantasy XIII, Versus XIIII, (especially if they get exclusive Kingdom Hearts 3), Kojima's next projects, and the other exclusives I've mentioned here, plus almost the same games that the 360 gets from Western developers while games like Gears 3, Fable 3 etc, are headed to 720, then PS3 would be selling well enough in that range.

You're right.  Because Lair, Heavenly Sword, Uncharted, GTAIV, MGS4, Resistence 2, LittleBigPlanet and Killzone 2 all pushed the PS3 to stratospheric sales.

 

Oh wait....



The rEVOLution is not being televised

txrattlesnake on 27 May 2009
thx1139 said:
txrattlesnake said:
thx1139 said:


Your kidding yourself thinking that the NextBox will launch higher than $400.  Sony showed what a mistake that was and MS will not repeat that mistake.  Not to mention why would publishers port NextBox games to the PS3 and ignore the 360 when the 360 will continue to be sold and already will have sold more than the PS3. 


     It will be an expensive console because it will need to be able to play third-party ports of nextgen pc games as well as the 360 plays Bioshock and Fallout 3.  Most western game developers are primarily pc developers that love to put their games on the most advanced tech and Microsoft has to come up with a system powerful enough to give western pc developers the proper incentive to put their games on the next microsoft console.

     Because when Nextbox comes out with games like exclusive Gears 3 people won't have much reason to pick up a 360.  Also, the next-gen multi-plat games if available on both 360 and 720 would cut into early adaption of the expensive at launch 720, thus placing it in a position at launch similar to the one the PS3 has been in so far this gen.  When Microsoft decides to bring out their next console it is in their best interest to kill off the 360 as quickly as they killed off original xbox.

 

 

Again this MS will kill off the 360 when the NextBox comes out.  Lets please understand the truth the reason MS stopped production of the original Xbox was because it cost more to produce than retail sales price.  That isnt the case with the 360.  You also believe that MS will stop 3rd party developers from creating software for the 360 because it will hurt NextBox sales.  Thats nuts.  MS wants to continue to make a profit on the 360 and 360 software well into the NextBox's lifetime.


       And as a result pull off what we've seen so far from PS3 on their next supersystem?  It will be the developers themselves that will pull off quite a bit of the third-party development from the 360 as I said earlier since many of them are western third-party pc developers that prefer to work on the most advanced tech.  During the transition from original xbox to 360 was bethseda still planning Elder Scrolls games to appear on original xbox?  What about Bioware, it seems like they sure were in a hurry to keep Mass Effect on original xbox, you didn't hear Epic decide that they wanted to put a version of Gears on the original xbox or THQ wanting to put Bioshock on original xbox either.

     Look at the traditional way of playing advanced pc games.  you buy a 1000+ dollar pc it can play the most advanced pc games for about a year, then by the end of the second year it can barely play any of the big new games coming to pcs, the third year you play whatever you can manage to squeeze out of it which usually isn't that much, and then at the end of that year, you have to buy another $1,000 pc.  Microsoft's plans always tend to follow a similar model.



txrattlesnake on 27 May 2009
Viper1 said:
txrattlesnake said:
Viper1 said:
txrattlesnake said:
theRepublic said:

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853

     How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360?  It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years.

With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate.  Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales.

But it's about PS3, not Wii.

When PS3 starts selling like Wii at its best, then you might have a point.


     It might not be selling as rapidly as Wii at that point in time but when you have God of War III, new games from Insomniac, and other PS3 studios, Trico, Final Fantasy XIII, Versus XIIII, (especially if they get exclusive Kingdom Hearts 3), Kojima's next projects, and the other exclusives I've mentioned here, plus almost the same games that the 360 gets from Western developers while games like Gears 3, Fable 3 etc, are headed to 720, then PS3 would be selling well enough in that range.

You're right.  Because Lair, Heavenly Sword, Uncharted, GTAIV, MGS4, Resistence 2, LittleBigPlanet and Killzone 2 all pushed the PS3 to stratospheric sales.

 

Oh wait....

As far as Uncharted goes, Sony won the holidays '07 and had the best selling hd console in January '08.  GTA IV was on multiple consoles.  It's sold over 10 million copies, so that would have had quite the effect as an exclusive.  MGS 4 put the PS3 ahead of the Wii, but there weren't enough other similar quality exclusives for ps3 released around the same time to continue the momentum as there was for the ps2 during holiday 2001.  Killzone 2 had more of an effect than you're willing to give it credit for, and I belive its still in the top 50 games, but again there weren't enough other games to push keep the momentum going in the West.  However, the combination of White Knight Chronicles, Yakuza, and RE5 pushed the PS3 over the Wii in Japan for almost three months in a row.  If Yakuza can push the PS3 above the Wii for three months, then GT5, FFXIII, followed shortly by Trico, Uncharted II, God of War III, Tales of Vesperia PS3, Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2, followed within a few short weeks by another and exclusive Final Fantasy and a new exclusive from Kojima plus all the games those will bring in their wake and the crowning jewel of a (possible) exclusive KH 3 on PS3 Christmas 2010 would do much, much more to 360.