thx1139 said:
txrattlesnake said:
HappySqurriel said:
There are several problems with the PS3 retaining sales strenght much past the begining of the next generation, and many of them are based on the market position it currently holds (both in terms of sales as well as strategy) and the difficulty of changing the way consumers see a product after it has been established.
The PS3 is currently an elitest early adopter product with sales that don't justify much exclusive third party support, and it will (probably) always be too expensive for the luddite late-adopters who buy late generation consoles because they're (amazingly) inexpensive. The kind of gamer who bought a 6+ year old PS2 at (roughly) $100 to play mass-market games like Guitar Hero and/or licenceware is not going to be all that excited to buy a 5 year old PS3 for $250 to play Killzone 2 when all the early adopters get excited about the minute details of next generation gaming; and to make matters worse, the gamer who buys a 6+ year old system is probably likely to be a late-adopter in other areas (like HDTV and Surround Sound) which limits the "Value" argument of the PS3.
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A $250.00 PS3 (being the only console that gets recognizable ports of Next gen games) will fair pretty well against a $400.00 to $500.00 Nextbox for the first couple of years of the Next gen.
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Your kidding yourself thinking that the NextBox will launch higher than $400. Sony showed what a mistake that was and MS will not repeat that mistake. Not to mention why would publishers port NextBox games to the PS3 and ignore the 360 when the 360 will continue to be sold and already will have sold more than the PS3.
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It will be an expensive console because it will need to be able to play third-party ports of nextgen pc games as well as the 360 plays Bioshock and Fallout 3. Most western game developers are primarily pc developers that love to put their games on the most advanced tech and Microsoft has to come up with a system powerful enough to give western pc developers the proper incentive to put their games on the next microsoft console.
Because when Nextbox comes out with games like exclusive Gears 3 people won't have much reason to pick up a 360. Also, the next-gen multi-plat games if available on both 360 and 720 would cut into early adaption of the expensive at launch 720, thus placing it in a position at launch similar to the one the PS3 has been in so far this gen. When Microsoft decides to bring out their next console it is in their best interest to kill off the 360 as quickly as they killed off original xbox.
