The rise in development costs.

Can you work more than 4 year on a game (especially when the standard console lifetime is around 7 years)?

Yes, i know you can (obviously). But can you justify it in a business sense? This question came to mind with Square-Enix's announced delay of FFXIII. Not to forget the whole 'Duke Nukem Forever' conclusion. 

It's not a new problem but with the HD evolution it has become more prudent. The problem is very clear. With the move to HD, all cost to overall development (and marketing) have risen. To meet the level of detail you also need more people, which is the highest expense of them all. With any delay the company piles up more costs and loses more potential profits.

At some point you're even better off by releasing a half-decent game then to lose even more development money, which can no longer be recuperated. At this moment it's the choice between lose or lose even more. To take the example of FFXIII: How much profit can they still collect with increased devolpment time and costs? Didn't the potential profits start to shrink after 3 years? The normal development cycle is 2 a 3 year. I assume it is for that exact reason. Even Nintendo, a huge software mogul, limits its teams size and development time, so the costs don't spiral out of control.

I wanted to do a nice graph with rising costs and falling profits but to do that you need very accurate financial records. Does anyone the records to do this?

It also brings up more questinos for the future: 

1) a) Will development time rise even more? Advances in developmentskills can make them more efficient but that only goes to a certain point.

    b) If yes. Could this lead to a backlash, where the company's, who did it, nearly goes under and subsequently build off the development time again? If that would take place, then halfway in the next gen.

2) Nintendo started a move to new game experiences, away from mere graphical improvements. A move which will in all likelyhood be followed by the competition. Could this shorten again the growing movement of the devopment time?

3) In the past the company's, who best manage their deveopment costs, survived the best in the cutthroath business of the gaming industry. Does this mean that the current company's who struggle now with the issue will go under first? Is that a trend which will be come clear in the coming years?

4) Will this increasing development trend force the consolemakers to lengthen the lifespand of their consoles? Will we see the current gen lifetime expanded for this reason alone?

What are your thoughts?

Oh, well.

Nice read. Sorry there haven't been more comments.

I assume me HD evolution not revolution. Since a revolution changes the status qou while the HD platforms only increased the current model.

1
a)  Yes, and yes companies have and do go under from this current cycle. A company that isnt growing is in a dangerous state. You will hear far more companies having to cut back than expand.

Solution: more emphasis on comunal and resused resourced. Numerous games will uses texture & model packs rather than do all textures over and over again for each game. As it is this fill content talent goes mostly towards visual space. Game features have never vastly increased programming time.

2. Yes. Resuing Mii or Avatars, simple textures, simple models means quicker dev time. This relates to 1 though. Characters like Kratos, Snake, Master Chief typicaly don't get upgraded, but built from scratch to support new engines. resuing a univeral model design and upscaling would be cheaper, but doesn't really happen.

3. Many current console developers spawned from the rise of playstation era. Which was an established stable era of growth. So many of the console developers are gamers and poor buisiness men. Also the the rise of the era brought around a self arrogance of invulnerability. These developers are now suffering from decisions of image, bias rather than good business.

4. No, this is soley based on the consumer market. Not the desires of the people who work in the industry. Mush like the DS has been given revisions and the new DSi is only a step up. Expect Nintendo to do the same. MS is in a position for a new console since the 360 did particualry well. Sony however for them to make a PS4 will have move it to the long haul. However MS and Nintendo will move based on the consumer rather self arrogance.

edit: console developer as in employees not companies.

Thomas Biskup worked on Ancient Domains of Mystery alone from 1994 to 2002. It's one of my favorite games. But that's a PC game.

If you take too long making a console game, you have to change the platform you're developing for every few years, and you're left with a horrible game that looks like it was being ported more than designed. I can think of a certain game that started on the GameCube before moving to the XBox and then the 360.

The story sounds familar, but I can't place the game.

Perfect Dark Zero.

Thanks, that makes sense.

The solution to the problem has been (fairly) obvious for some time now, but since the inmates run the asylum there has been a lot of resistance to it ...

The data required to sustain the advanced graphical effects that are the primary difference between the visuals of the HD consoles and the Wii is amazingly time consuming to produce and, as sales demonstrate, does not really motivate people to buy more games on a level to justify the additional development cost. Certainly there are exceptions, and the best selling games easily justify their development costs, but this can not be said about the typical game.

The solution is simple, regardless of which platform you're producing your game for (including unreleased platforms) you should be producing visuals at a level where the potential sales of the game justify the development cost. What this means is that many XBox 360 and PS3 games (along with games for future generation consoles) should be developed with graphics that are not that much different than Wii games, and the primary improvements should be increased detail and clarity.

Ermmm....In Sony years or Every other Dev years?

Also Square Enix

Ubisoft

Remedy