Pk9394 said:
txrattlesnake said:
Squilliam said:
txrattlesnake said:
Squilliam said:
txrattlesnake said:
I agree strongly with the opening post and throw in two or three more games for Kojima, the HD exclusives that will be coming to the PS3 from Japanese third parties as the PS3 continues to sell more and more in Japan than the 360 and that will set the PS3 apart from the 360's lineup as it is now when both of them seem similar to most people, and the possibility that KH3 will come to the PS3 after the success of both FF exclusives in Japan, the PS3 is going to have a much stronger second half of this gen than its first half of this gen.
Now, its doubtful that any PS3 title is likely to match the success of the big 4 or big 5 Wii games. On the other hand, it is also doubtful that any other Wii game will match those games as well. You can show those four games and their sales, but then you can show many more and higher rated Wii games that haven't even hit a million in sales.
And I think the Wii is going to have a much harder time selling its second 50 million than it did its first. It was supposed to hit 50 million by the end of March '09 and we're almost to the end of May '09 and it still isn't there. And even though it has managed to outsell the PS3 (which beat it eleven or twelve weeks in a row in Japan this year), it's most recent Japanese sales figure is still far from impressive (it beat the PS3 in Japan last week but still sold less than 15,000 units there.)
I predict Microsoft will replace the 360 in the next couple of years. So, here are my estimates for the end of the gen.
Wii -- 100,000,000
PS3 -- 70,000,000
360 -- 50,000,000
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I predict that Sony will stop making PS3s tomorrow, take that! So LTD sales will be:
Wii -- 140,000,000
Xbox 360 - 80,000,000
PS3 --24,000,000
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Well, we won't have to wait very long to see if your prediction comes true or not.
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Well, at least I admit that mine are unlikely. 
Seriously now, 100M for Wii? A massive 28M switharound between the PS3 and Xbox 360? 70M total for the PS3? Wow, you're optimistic.
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Well part of that 28 million results from more exclusives coming to the PS3 from Japanese studios while the PS3 and 360 continue to get basically the same Western games providing an impetus for more people that want to play Japanese type games to pick up a PS3.
Since the Japanese games we've seen so far on 360 don't seem to sell that well as the console's owners are mainly western shooter fans when the PS3 / 360 divide becomes 5 or more million units for the PS3 in Japan after the release of FFXIII and GT5 over there (and possibly goes up to 7 million after FF Versus XIII) while the 360 probably won't have passed 1.5 million in Japan by then, most Japanese developers will switch almost totally to making their hd rpgs as PS3 exclusives.
The other part comes from the fact that Gears 3 will probably be a 720 exclusive and the death knell for 360 development will come about to make way for other games on the new console.
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these are only your own assumption and have no prove to your prediction how the future will play out for any system, No one will know for certain how great FFXIII , Versus, and GT will perform in japan(in term of Hardware boost). 360 maybe never have a chance of success in japan but we need to know its not the only market jp developer are aiming for, and telling them to withdraw support for 360 because it failed in japan while beating its competition in the other region is just wishful thinking. Finally stop bring out the crap about MS will release a new console soon, if there is one company that have the need to bring out a new console sooner than later is sony. MS and Nintendo are making a profit on their system and they are not in a hurry to bring out anything new but this is the complete opposite for sony, they are loosing huge money from the gaming division each quarter.
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GT5, FFXIII, and Versus will be huge in Japan. Just look at how the demos have done. And other than Capcoms Dead Rising and Lost Planet, and maybe Lost Odyssey almost every other Japanese exclusive for the 360 have totally failed in the West because the audience for those types of games aren't the 360's primary owners.
Namco had to discontinue Tales of Vesperia in America because its sales were so bad and they've ended up porting the game to the PS3 to try to make more money. I don't think Star Ocean has passed 500,000 and the last installment on PS2 sold over a million copies, and Lost Odyssey still hasn't sold 1 million copies according to VG Chartz. Meanwhile, a rather average effort from Level 5 in White Knight Chronicles sells more than any 360 exclusive in Japan from Square-Enix (and none of their other games on 360 have come anywhere near selling a million copies in the West).
If Microsoft has an interest in bringing out a next-gen system, then they will need a Halo size game to sell it and justify its $500.00 launch price. I don't think the Halo series is really Halo-sized anymore, and Gears is the only series that
big.
It would be logical to act much as MS did with the 360 and Halo 3 with the 720 and Gears 3 and get it out in a timely fashion 2010 or 2011 as series burnout starts to come into most popular movie and gaming trilogies in fourth and later installments.
