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txrattlesnake on 21 May 2009
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Squilliam said:
txrattlesnake said:

     GT5, FFXIII, and Versus will be huge in Japan.  Just look at how the demos have done.  And other than Capcoms Dead Rising and Lost Planet, and maybe Lost Odyssey almost every other Japanese exclusive for the 360 have totally failed in the West because the audience for those types of games aren't the 360's primary owners.

     Namco had to discontinue Tales of Vesperia in America because its sales were so bad and they've ended up porting the game to the PS3 to try to make more money.  I  don't think Star Ocean has passed 500,000 and the last installment on PS2 sold over a million copies, and Lost Odyssey still hasn't sold 1 million copies according to VG Chartz.  Meanwhile, a rather average effort from Level 5 in White Knight Chronicles sells more than any 360 exclusive in Japan from Square-Enix (and none of their other games on 360 have come anywhere near selling a million copies in the West).

     If Microsoft has an interest in bringing out a next-gen system, then they will need a Halo size game to sell it and justify its $500.00 launch price.  I don't think the Halo series is really Halo-sized anymore, and Gears is the only series that
big. 

 It would be logical to act much as MS did with the 360 and Halo 3 with the 720 and Gears 3 and get it out in a timely fashion 2010 or 2011 as series burnout starts to come into most popular movie and gaming trilogies in fourth and later installments.

 

Its Japan, what 10% of the market now? AKA a storm in a teacup. Furthermore what can you say about JRPGs other than that they are a dying breed on home consoles? PS3 vs 360 JRPG debates go on for ages, obviously there are some on the 360 because LO is currently the best or one of the best selling traditional TB JRPGs in this generation.

Sony as yet hasn't got a Halo sized exclusive, nor a Gears sized exclusive and yet they are doing fine. Also $500 launch price? You're nuts right? Tell me you're nuts please! Lastly Halo 3 is the biggest yet, so really the next one is almost assured to sell 5M copies which isn't too bad really. So obviously even if the series has peaked, its still going to decline to a level thats higher than 99% of games released in a generation by the next title release.

Microsoft doesn't control Gears 3, and Epic would act in their own best interests to ensure a minimum userbase size before release. Thats logic.

 

 

 

      But Lost Odyssey hasn't sold anywhere near what FFXIII and FF Versus XIII will sell.  Also, there is the Wii effect on jrpgs that I haven't thought about before now, but the Wii could rejuvenate jrpgs which would result in a greater interest in the hd type on the PS3.

It will either be $400.00 or $500.00.  It will be a system that is 4 times as powerful as the current 360 just as the 360 was 4 times as powerful as the original xbox.  I would expect such a system to carry a heavy price at launch.  It's going to need a much bigger launch title than Fable.