The problem with E3 on this site is the fact that people tend to over-estimate the sales effects of the games they like and minimise the effects for those that they don't like and in general they tend to dwell too much on individual game releases. Sure theres the possibility that something massive will come out of E3, but its unlikely that the massive thing would be a game.

Also, its fun to predict before the information comes in, sometimes an information overload can cause people to skew their prediction numbers as they try to factor everything in as a positive influence.

I also dont see the PS3 completely outseling the Xbox360

the price drop will increase the PS3 sales but the Arcade sales will remain very strong

The arcade is just too cheap ...

My 2 unanswered questions :

- will MS succeed to introduce a motion control toy (bundle or not ?), at which price ? and with what effect on the market (disturbtion or not?)

- will the Wii have a price cut ?

...

You've made some pretty ridiculous assumptions there.

Firstly, the PS3 being 3 million at a $400 price. Well, the sales only declined from 2007 to 2008 because the PS3 had a price cut in holiday 2007, while the 360 had one in holiday 2008.

Historical evidence shows us that so far this gen, in the mini-HD war, the momentum is with whoever cut the price last. Sony cuts price, PS3 is in second. Microsoft cuts price, 360 is in second. Thus, if Sony were to cut the price, PS3 sales would increase, not only because it is now at an affordable price, but because it is at a MORE affordable price than it was previously. The PS3 is looking to have a better holiday lineup than the 360, so with prices equal, PS3 demand will soar above that of the 360. Those originally considering 360 purchases because they couldn't afford a PS3 would reconsider, because now they CAN afford a PS3.

So, you cannot expect 360 sales to remain steady while PS3 sales rise slightly.

Another factor to consider here is Japan. Japan is the only region left where system sellers (short of a few huge games like Halo 3) really matter. 2008's holiday saw very few PS3 system sellers in Japan- White Knight Chronicles is about it, and even that isn't much. 2009, meanwhile, has FF13 and GT5, both of which are huge in Japan, and will give lasting boosts, especially if coupled with a price cut.

Finally, the PS3 outsold the 360 (albeit only slightly) in holiday 2007, back when it had very little quality software and a still-pretty-high price tag, so I'm pretty sure it can do that again.

The person who has started this thread is obsessed with the PS3. Fear does funny things to people.

Squilliam isn't obsessed with the PS3, he's obsessed with making controversial predictions which are right about half of the time.

Great post, agree 100%.

Its a completely different story in 2010, even if the 360 can hold the PS3 to an effective draw over the holiday season 2010 will swing quite firmly towards the PS3.

Can Microsoft successfully introduce a motion control camera to the Xbox 360? To be honest, im not that confident in Microsoft to pull it off. However on the offchance they do pull it off, the likely effect will be a shallower price cut as the camera is quite expensive ($20-30) but the overall sales will probably be about where I predicted. Long term its a better solution as it would raise demand for the console, but thats only if it works. Im currently skeptical about its prospects, and E3 is where we'll find out about whether or not they have anything for it that might work.

As for the Wii? Hmm thats a tricky one but overall the sales in Japan have been declining and the actual sales YOY have declined a little as well. So colour me crazy for saying this but theres actually better than an even chance that the Wii will get a price cut this year to maintain sales at the production level Nintendo has decided on. It really depends on whether they can pull off another Wii Fit or Mario Kart Wii this year.

@Kantor
His prediction is strictly for the holiday period, and it will be a recession stricken one, thus one where the price tag will work against the PS3 even after a price cut. The past sales have shown much more "peaked sales" on the American market than on the "others" one during the holidays, that's why the 360 can still pull it off slightly.

The software lineup I think it's not that relevant as the purchase during the holidays is either a gift or a long-thought one.

Actually the same recession can also subvert everything if it goes even worse than expected: the American sales could be so much depressed with respect to the Japan and Others ones that the american holiday boost could not be enough for the 360 to come on top.

I hate it when people reply by bolding! Ah well. Bold and italic for me.