Before I get attacked for being a Sony or Xbox fanatic I should mention that I am the biggest Nintendo fan and have been since I got a NES in the late 80s.  But at the same time I am a realist.  Wii sales have been  steadily declining in Japan and last week Wii was almost outsold in the US by 360.  With Halo coming out shortly Wii is bound to be outsold by 360 for thenext few weeks.  As great a product as Wii is it is certainly not the greatest thing known to man (proabably would be if it had HD, hard disk, blu ray or HD-DVD plus all the Wii features and miraculously still cost the same price - which is obviously an impossible scenario).  A huge part of the reason for its increadible success so far has been the momentum it has generated since launch.  

With the Wii dropping constantly in Japan it looks like it could be losing that momentum in Japan unless something drastic happens to change that (Mario Galaxy, Brawl & Wii Fit or a price drop maybe).  In the US if 360 starts outselling it consistently for the next few weeks the Media will pick up on this which will stream down to the public and all of a sudden buyers will feel the Wii is not such a hot product after all and the 360 is the video game to pick up (at least those that can afford it which seems to be many).  This would then cause Wii to lose its momentum in the US.  

 It will also cause 3rd parties to take note.  There is alot of talk about them now starting to shift focus to Wii but if they see Wii is losing momentum they may decide not to switch after all especially considering how well 3rd party games are selling on 360.  The shift of resources by 3rd parties is one of the reasons people expect Wii to outsell 360 and PS3 significantly.  But what happens if they don't because they see Wii is losing momentum. 

People on these forums seem extremely confident Wii will sell close to 200 million but the way things are looking right now I see a huge possibility it will even struggle to get to 100 million (although anything close to that will still be a massive success for Nintendo especially financially).

So is there a risk the Will bubble will burst soon (not necessarily this year or next but before it totally runs away from the competition)? 

 Only retarded people.

@montana

Then your saying everyone on the forums are retarded?(no offense)

I've heard 100 million, but 200 million is just stupid.

I say 500million ; what am I? :)

Zoidberg...

Anyways, I'll be hitting the hay, it's 6:23 eastern...

Personally I doubt it.
If you look into the Japanese sales you will see that all consoles are hitting rock bottom for the year, this is the slowest period in Japan.

If you look into the American sales you see it comes down to one thing 'Halo 3' the Wii is trundling along at the same rate as before (more or less) but Halo 3 has given the X360 a huge boost. This weeks increased sales are likely due to the release of the Halo 3 system.

Also third parties dont switch with every little shift in the console market, only massive shifts like the PS3 - Wii shift (PS3 pre launch - Wii post launch) and even now the effects of that shift are only slowly becoming evident. In any case the Japanese developers wont be showing any love to the X360 and their games are perhaps the biggest in general, they will almost certainly go with consoles doing well in Japan.

@rath

That explains the wii dropping of 20,000 units in north america.

Or is it a fluctuation?

The 20k drop is back to pre-Metroid levels. Supply isn't being diverted anymore.