By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - The Official April NPD Thread (Data at 6:30 PM EST)

dolemit3 on 16 May 2009

EA Sports will sell well, but Punch-out is too male centric to do well right away.



Currently playing on PS3: God of War III

Currently playing on Xbox360: Final Fantasy XIII

Currently playing on NDS: Chrono Trigger

Around the Network
Soundwave on 16 May 2009

Punch-Out! will do well. The marketing campaign is fantastic, it has tons of nostalgia, and it's easy to pick up and play (will be a great party game). Like Mario Kart it will please core and casuals alike. It won't be a monster hit like Mario Kart, but I expect it to sell very well over time.  

I'm calling it now too -- Super Mario Bros. Wii at E3. Running off the Galaxy engine out this fall. 

Wii Fit Plus as well. 

If Nintendo ever feels like their hardware projections are in danger of not being met there's a pretty simple solution -- $50 price cut. It's long overdue anyway, and it would demolish every sales record for the 2nd half of the year. 

The Wii will be back to 500k-600k a month in North America soon enough. I really feel the main reason why it didn't do that last month was because of the DSi launch actually impacted the Wii. PS3/360 do not impact the Wii at all (as proven by the various 360/PS3 price cuts and GTAIV and Halo 3 launches doing nothing to the Wii), but the DS can because it has a similar kind of appeal even if it isn't a home console. 

With MotionPlus, the best thing they can do for the future is to make all Wiimotes starting in the 2nd half of 2009 simply come with WM+ built in. Similar to how Sony phased out their first PSX controller for the Dual Shock with the first Playstation. Nintendo has not release colored Wiimotes yet (blue, black, pink, etc.) ... when they do, make all those WM+ standard. 



Ail on 16 May 2009
TheSource said:

Right, clearly the other 191m games shipped in the year ending March 2009 had no impact on Wii hardware sales, it was only the magical 16m Wii Fits sold in the western markets that sold 24m Wiis. Think about what you said.

The Wii attach rate is over five even if you take out Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Music and Wii Play worldwide.

You really shouldn't doubt any game's capacity to move hardware if it sells enough. Wii Fit only did a bit better than Punch Out is likely to do week one - the difference is Nintendo saved a huge allotment of Wiis for that week so there was a massive hardware spike.

If you think Wii is just going to sell 350k/400k per Jan-Oct month in the USA you must think Nintendo is retarted for predicting 26m Wiis, as that would translate to maybe 8m Americas/8m Others/2m Japan which is only 18m and essentially what Wii did in 2007. Its pretty clear that they expect Punch Out, Wii Sports Resort, Motion Plus, Monster Hunter 3, Pikmin 3, Mario & Sonic, and all the rest to boost hardware sales from current levels to equal the figures seen last year. Since they are unlikely to match the Japan figures for 2008, that means the growth is to be largely USA and Europe based.

This is the flip of 2008 - Wii only did 1.7m in the USA in its quietest three months of the March 2009 year. Wii should do 1.5m in its quietest three months of the March 2010 year (Apr-June). Wii did 2.05m in Apr-June 2008 for its best period outside the Christmas season. This year, that three month best period should come August to October when the system can do 2m-2.5m

If your just doing NPD years, for the USA 2008 vs. 2009 looks like:

Jan-Feb - 2009 higher

March-May - 2008 higher

June-July - Flat. June probably a bit in favor of 2008, July in favor of 2009

August-September - 2009 higher

October-Dec 2009 higher

 

 

No game or combination of game this gen has been able to provide a 50% hardware boost that stayed over time...

The only steady boosts came from price cuts or raising production level to satisfy the demand..

I don't see why things would be any different for the incoming games...

And raising production is no longer a viable solution right now...

 

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

JGarret on 16 May 2009

"Super Mario Bros. Wii at E3. Running off the Galaxy engine out this fall."

Ehh?...I hope you´re right about a new Mario, but why did you put the 'Bros'?...ever since Mario World, they haven´t used the 'Bros' in the title.



Soundwave on 16 May 2009
JGarret said:
"Super Mario Bros. Wii at E3. Running off the Galaxy engine out this fall."

Ehh?...I hope you´re right about a new Mario, but why did you put the 'Bros'?...ever since Mario World, they haven´t used the 'Bros' in the title.

Because New Super Mario Bros. was such a huge hit on the DS. 

Also because I think the natural next step for the series is to have 2-player co-op (Mario and Luigi). 

Multiplayer games simply sell more on the Wii, Galaxy sold great, but I think EAD might feel like they can make the next one an even bigger seller. 

That's all my speculation, but I think that's more of Nintendo's style than simply calling the game Super Mario Galaxy 2. You'd also be surprised how many casual shoppers don't understand that "Galaxy" means the new "main" Mario game. 

I wouldn't mind either way though. 

And if EAD Tokyo is making a new Donkey Kong game instead of a new Mario (which I wouldn't mind either), I predict that'll be called Donkey Kong WORLD. How's that ;)