That is a good point cause when you look at the proportion of PS3 and Wii games that went from 1 million to 2 million, they are nearly identical. Of course, there is also the fact that the X360 has a much higher attach rate, worldwide, than either the Wii or PS3 so it would make sense from that point of view as well.

The attach rate is indeed another element to take into account but the difference is largely due to this extra year of SW and HW sales the X360 had. If it wasnt for this extra year, I'm pretty sure the Wii would have more 1 million seller (and maybe 2 million seller too) than the X360 as of right now.

Looking at the list of Wii million sellers though, I'm not sure I see too many that'll make it to 2 million. My Fitness Coach, Just Dance, maybe Lego Batman & Indiana Jones, and presumably Monster Hunter 3 when it releases in the West...that's really not a lot. Most of the other 1 million+ seem to have stagnated or struggled just to reach the million mark, so crossing 2 million definitely looks unlikely.

Don't forget that if the Wii ould have been released in 2005, it would have released a lot more games that could have reach 2 million. Plus Wii games tend to have the best legs on the market look at Call of Duty 3, Sonic Unleashed or Monopoly for example.

I suppose we'll just have to wait and see it all play out then :). And while I agree that Wii games tend to have long sales lives, you also have to admit that, realistically, none of the games you pointed out really have a shot at 2 million...(Sonic Unleashed is closest but I think it's surge was due to price cuts and I don't see much more room for more cuts on that title). In addition, if you look at the million list, there's only a handful of them that are over 1.5 million, meaning a lot of these games need to sell 600,000+ more to hit the 2 million mark, and that's not an insignificant amount to clear. I guess all I'm really saying is that I don't see many current 1 million sellers on Wii 'graduating' to the 2 million mark.

I kind of agree with you as for the actual 1 million seller games that could reach the 2 million mark. I don't think the Wii will reach as many 2 million seller as the X360. But the 1 million seller race will be very interesting.

By the way, here is the weekly update:

10M : Wii Fit Plus

1M: High School Musical 3: Senior Year DANCE! (Wii)

Out of curiosity, since you clearly have more experience watching/tracking the numbers and such, where do you think these 3rd-party Wii titles will end up topping out at: Modern Warfare Reflex, Just Dance, EA Sports Active? I've been pretty impressed with them so far, as well as Toy Story Mania, and I'm wondering if the hype over the release of the 3rd movie might be enough to propel that to 2 million. Your thoughts? Plus, I definitely agree with you that the Wii will not have as many 2 million selling games as X360, but I think it just underscores the differences that have brought up again (and again, and again, ad nauseum) about how titles sell on the platforms. Wii has those astronomical selling hits, less 'mid-range' hits and more 'lower-level' hits, while X360 has less gigantic hits, more 'mid-range' hits and roughly the same 'lower-level' hits. The whole thing is really quite fascinating. Where do you see PS3 ending up in terms of million sellers and 2 million selllers? On par with Wii, or 360, or?

Wow there is a lot of questions there.

Let's begin with the 3rd-party Wii titles you mentionned:

Modern Warfare Reflex will soon reach its first million and judging by the numbers of other CoD games on Wii (CoD3 at 1.34M and CoD:WaW at 1.42M) I won't be surprised to see this game eventually reach 2 million of LTD sales since it is the best CoD game released on the Wii and that the franchise is getting more and more successful.

Just Dance is a total surprise in the industry (a little bit like Tomodatchi Collection in Japan), nobody saw those crazy sale numbers coming. 2 million is now guaranteed and it could even reach 3 million sometime aroud next Christmas. Those kind of sales are pretty hard to predict, so let's wait and see.

As for EA Sports Active, the game will reach 3 million this summer and will probably end around 4 million LTD sales when all is said and done.

Toy Story Mania is also on its way for the million mark. It will probably reach 1.3M-1.4M of LTD sales like a lot of Disney games on the Wii, but 2 million sees a little bit too far imo even with the release ot the new movie.

Finally, I don't see the PS3 to reach the same level of 1 and 2 million seller as the Wii and the X360 simply because it is too much behind those 2 consoles as of right now and that even if the PS3 is actually outselling the X360 in HW, we don't see a lot of new 1 million seller like the Wii and the X360 recently had.

To be honest, at this point I think the year head start is starting to become irrelevant because none of those games sold very many copies at all this past year, and I believe they were all already over 2M at the start of it.