The console with the fewest sales will sell the fewest accessories and games. A new console has the promise of increasing sales of games and accessories, which is the promise an old console cannot fulfill. We have already seen how retailers are allocating extra space to the consoles which sell more, this is just a continuation of this trend to its final fruition.

360 will be out of the market by 2011.
Wii will be out of the market by 2012/2013
PS3 all depends on how well a $300 version does, and if that dosent work out well, then NA will be lost by 2011.

the 360 was doomed before the price cut. people forget that for some reason.

I agree the PS3 is in real trouble in US. Right now it's hard to call an end date to the product, though I think.

Retailers do call the shots in terms of their final range, but in consumer electronics they also take input from the vendor. Unless PS3 really tanks, and assuming other Sony products are selling okay (TVs, etc.) then Sony will likely retain enough input to keep PS3 on shelves whatver happens (although if PS3 continues to slide in demand in US you'd be talking a very small presence).

The big unknown is the impact of a price cut (and what MS would do in return). It seems clear a price cut would stimulate sales, so until we see the impact of any cut (there will be one before 2012 I'm sure!) and what MS do about it guessing now about 2012 is ignoring a couple of big changes that are sure to happen.

But I'd agree that while globally PS3 isn't doing terrible considering where it was, the US is a key area of concern for the console.

This is false. For quite some time in "others" PS3 has sold more software than the 360 though it sold about 15% less hardware.

And I don't have factual numbers about accessories, but e.g. at my local Mediaworld store the 360 and PS3 have comparable shelf space for games, but there's much more varied and numerous accessories for the PS3. I think even the PS2 beats the 360 in that field, actually.

360, A console with twice the sales of the PS3 in the American market will be out in 2011?

Wii, well who knows actually? Nintendo has bad habit of discontinuing old consoles when they release new ones, well at least if their recent handheld behaviour is any indication.

Also isn't the whole concept of the $299 PS3 really hoping against hope?

See, you're hoping that Sony can manage to cut the price of the PS3 in half in 3 years and you're hoping that Microsoft cannot cut the price in half in 4 years. Because a PS3 at $299 is relatively more expensive to a premium @$199 as in its 50% more expensive and its still twice as expensive as a $149 Arcade.

If price is everything then why exactly does $250 Wii outsell $200 Arcade when we both can agree Wii is inferior on every possible front other than gimmicks and marketing ?

@Squill
Thats what i think, MS will have the nextbox out on the market by then, and 360 will be discontinued. Maybe im wrong... but who knows.

Wii is confusing, as you said. I expect them to release Wii2 by ~2011 with HD. And once they do that i cant see them keeping the Wii on the market for too long after... as ALL focus will be on Wii2.

PS3 is also confusing, and all depends on how a $300 PS3 would go down, but once again... who knows?

After some time, GC was selling for 99$, BUT this price didn`t help.
x360 is already a CHEAP console.
The pricecut, wont help much, since it`s already at MASS market price.

While, PS3 is yet to enter to that 299$ mass market price.
Also, PS3 game base(thnx to exclusives) is growing faster, than x360. That`s why PS3 will be a MUST HAVE console. It will have too MANY GREAT AAA games, to be ignored.

The bolded is exactly why.

And on that... im out.