It seems to me that Nintendo is following strategy of maximising profit rather than market share. If they wanted to maximise market share they probably would have increased production a lot more aggressively and lowered the price of the console by now. So obviously neither Microsoft or Sony could conceivibly come close to matching the Wiis overall profits. That much is exceedingly obvious to all but the most die hard brick headed people.

The current console market share is 48.6% vs 29.7% vs 21.7% and you know which consoles are which.

So the question of the thread is, how close could either Microsoft or Sony get to the Wii if they follow their current market share maximising strategies?

This isn't a thread about what is, or what you think is even likely to occur. Its all about what might and could happen with the right application and intent by either Sony or Microsoft to increase their consoles market share. We all know that the current sales trends indicate the opposite given the data we have available to us. This thread is about the unexpected that could happen, of course not about scenarios which are completely out of this world like Nintendo withdraws the Wii from the market.

One such possible scenario I predict is that both Sony and Microsoft perform price cuts and Nintendo Wii sales remain level year over year with the Xbox 360 and PS3 taking say 55% market share between them over the holiday season by increasing their sales relative to the Wiis.

Another I guess is that something amazing comes out of either Sony's or Microsofts camp at E3 which excites the market in a way that only Nintendo games and accessories have done up until now. Like for example Microsoft releases a version of Windows for the Xbox 360 and they capture a whole other media/non gaming segment of the market to go with say a new camera peripheral for interface.

So what do you think? How close could one of these consoles come to the Wii to be considered successful when compared to the Wii itself and not against the losers league.

I don't know how much maximizing of profit shares either Microsoft or Sony can do without regard for minimizing losses.

To be honest, I expect as sales begin to slow below an acceptable level that Nintendo will take some action because it will begin to reduce its profits. That will help to recapture market share losses.

Back to the OP, another price cut by Microsoft could shift sales to the 60G Pro version and away from the Arcade version more than it would increase sales. Of course it would get some additional sales unless Sony matched it with a price cut.

A PS3 price cut would result in additional sales and demand for the console. But if it is done too soon, it could be more of a problem that a benefit for Sony. Monetary losses or the inability to meet demand (for a product for which there is an adequate substitute) are not things that you want to see as a business.

In other words, there might be changes at the margins but the essential pattern has been locked in for two years. The only question is whether the Xbox 360 or PS3 get the larger share of the HD console market. Given current trends, the Xbox seems to be in position to hold its relative advantage over the PS3 for the short run. In the long run, a lot will depend on whether the PS3 can lower its price twice.

(Both the Wii and PS3/Xbox 360 have ranged between 48% and 52% since the generation became competitive -- with the share of one console/group of consoles going up while the share of the other goes down).

Mike from Morgantown

@ Mike, the bulk of the Xbox 360s sales at least in the U.S.A. are at the Premium level already according to Pachters most recent statement on the matter. I doubt that any price cuts would shift the SKU balance, more than it will increase sales anyway. Sorry I gotta go so thats all I can type.

i doubt they can match the wii too much. The wii is too much of a status symbol for it to be beaten. Its one of those must have objects for lots of people

I don't think there's much Sony could conceivably do to capture more than 25% marketshare this generation, or perhaps with a mircale, 30%. (This is not counting PS3 sales after the Wii/360 have moved into the next generation)

My estimates for the generation's end put the Wii at about 45% marketshare, as I would assume Sony, with price cuts will eventually pick up some points, whereas MS's reponse should keep them from losing any. All told, the closest that would put them is about 45%-30%-25%.

The best Sony can do with the PS3 is 25% and that won't happen before 2011. X360 won't stay at 30%. Wii will probably be at 54-55% by 2012.

Nintendo's strategy is to maximize customers with new surprises and propositions. They are conservative with things like supply and demand because they don't want to go out of business like so many other companies.

I think they could surpass Nintendo if they fix their platforms to match what non-customers want make cheaper systems with less hardware difficulties, come out with user friendly controlls, offer DRM-free games and downloads, allow anyone to develope on their platforms without a license, make more lower-teir games.

I think the PS3, and even the 360 are well placed for the long run. The Wii however is the least future proofed. It has already slowed in Japan and trends in gaming usually start here first.

If I was gonna back one for the long run it would be the PS3. But, SONY looks to be bringing the PS4 out earlier this time, and I would suspect M$ will follow, so I doubt either will catch it.