http://www.neowin.net/news/gamers/09/04/29/3d-why-a-new-xbox-is-coming-sooner-than-later

Phooey To Those Who Say It's To Early For A New Release
Being so dominant in the computer world for so long now, Microsoft already has deep-seeded roots in a culture where people are willing to spend anywhere from $150 to $450 on a new graphics card, just one singular component of a PC. As such, I am thinking the way they see it, why would people not be willing to upgrade to an entirely new console for around the same amount of money? The 360 is after-all already going to be four years old this November, and lets not forget, the first Xbox launched in November of 2001. Yep, that just four years prior to the 360's launch.

Still, plenty of people would definitely be upset by the news of a new console for a plethora of different reasons. Number one being that for whatever reason, people see consoles as being immune to the plague that affects all other technology: once something is released it is already dated. I believe Microsoft knows this is the mindset, and the main reason I believe they are going to be able to pull off the release of a new console in the mind of many consumers "so soon" is because for the first time...

New Games Will Have Scalable Graphics (at least for awhile).
Anyone who has played a game on the PC knows that most games have, for awhile now, included an Auto-Detect option that will detect your system's components and change the graphic settings for the game accordingly. Admittedly, the Auto-Detect settings are almost always never right, but when you only have two systems you need to detect for, it makes a developers job that much easier. By doing this, they will not be abandoning the 360 and people will indeed still be able to play new game releases. Only difference being is this time around they will be providing consumers with an option (and believe you me their marketing people will make sure to reiterate that "options" fact over and over) to play new game releases either on the new console with better graphics and resolution, or on their current 360 with the same graphics they have come to know and love. Again, this is yet another concept with roots in the already established PC gaming market, just replace one singular component with an entire console.

Taking this approach, after a few years Microsoft could kindly "suggest" to developers that for Triple-A titles to drop development for the 360 completely. This would be the exact opposite of how they handled things with the Xbox to Xbox 360 transition where they virtually dropped development almost instantly. Doing so would keep plenty of nay-sayers happy for at least a good time to come.

But What About Blu-ray?
Naturally, the concept of better graphics then leads to the question "Will Microsoft then decide to support Blu-ray?" Well my first response would be perhaps. I do not see that as being completely out of the question. Perhaps even some sort of external solution would be an option as other companies seem to see that as a plausible and viable option. However, a more plausible scenario is that the resources needed to support higher resolutions, etc., especially when there are only two configurations to support (360 and new console), will actually still be able to fit on current dual-layer DVD's. The two different configuration would already share so many common resources, and it is indeed only the graphical elements such as textures, etc., that would need to have two "versions."

Let's just say for the sake of argument that they could not fit everything on a current dual-layer DVD. With the now introduced option to install to hard-drive (again from PC world), especially on a 250-320 GB drive which is the most common-sense size to be in the next generation of consoles. Would it then really be that big of a deal if a game did indeed require two disks if you only needed one disk to play after you were able to install the game itself? Finally, there is still the possibility that games can indeed be delivered by means of digital downloads, although I personally just do not see a huge company such as Microsoft strictly relying on a method of distribution that still has a long way to go before it is the absolute standard.

PC Graphics Are Just That Much Better
We all know the above subtitle in bold has always been the case, it goes without saying if you know anything about gaming. However, since we are talking about better graphics and resolution, one cannot deny or dismiss the fact that PC graphics are really, really starting to make the 360 (and PS3 for that matter) show how weak and not-so-capable they actually are in this department. Truth be told, a capable PC could have shown both consoles graphical inferiority on Day One of each consoles release. Going back a few years to their release, the not all that informed public was simply just mesmerized by the fact that their newfangled HD TV was able to play games in HD itself.

Keeping in mind that for better or for worse, the modern day gamer is obsessed with graphics, I cannot help but think Microsoft is not only aware of this fact, but they also simply want to stay competitive in this area. Case in point, two games that are fairly recent releases that stick out to me as examples of superior graphics are F.E.A.R. 2 and Chronicles of Riddick: Assault on Dark Athena. Both undeniably look dramatically better on a well equipped computer, and to reiterate, I believe Microsoft are smart enough to know people are either already realizing this fact and / or will start realizing it more and more as time goes on.

Also lets face it, the current generation of consoles was and still will be about the "HD gaming experience." One cannot ignore that none of the Triple A titles are running at the superior 1080p, and none probably ever will on this current generation (and note I do say Triple-A titles, yes there are indeed some games that are 1080p native, most notably XBLA and PSN releases. So for a "true HD gaming experience," they need better more capable GPU's. Plain and simple. I can notice the difference in a 720p Blu-ray compared to a 1080p one, and I am sure I am not the only one. If game graphics can be at 1080p, and in a perfect world even run at a constant 60 frames per second, I am sure plenty of people would definitely be interested in and in-fact desire this capability.

They Want To Put The Nail In Sony's Coffin
Sony has time and time again talked about the PS3's ten year life-cycle. While it is a noble crusade, and one that many support at least in theory for their wallets, unfortunately it is just not a realistic one, mainly for the reasons I pointed out above about no games actually being capable of full-blown 1080p HD. Sure, perhaps Sony can help developers squeeze some more power out of the Cell processor. Sure, graphics on the PS3, just as the 360, do currently look pretty damn good, but why not make them look even better if possible? Also lets face it, the PS3, just as the 360 in all fairness, are definitely limited in the GPU department to pull true HD off, as already outlined above.

While I have no doubt Sony is already working on their next console as well, I just do not think they are as far along as Microsoft is on their next console - not even close actually as they had a fairly well documented struggle getting the PS3 off the ground itself. I just cannot help but think that Microsoft sees this as a perfect opportunity to deliver a potential KO punch and put Sony down for the count, perhaps even for good.

The Experience Itself
We have to keep in mind that Microsoft already have done a major overhaul to the 360's OS itself with the launch of NXE. They are going to continue building and improving on NXE naturally, but they just as NXE's current name implies, Microsoft are indeed all about the new experience. As such, I believe that NXE will indeed be the last major overhaul to the 360, but Microsoft is and definitely will be itching to release a completely new experience sooner than later: Specifically one that capitalizes on social media and networking. Expect plenty of partnerships to be announced and an even more social experience than you currently can and do indeed enjoy on the 360. Going back to possibly putting Sony down for the count, I do not think that anyone can argue that Sony is almost embarrassingly behind in this aspect with the PS3 currently, and if Microsoft can release and even stronger social experience, that could indeed have the potential to even further the distance between themselves and Sony as the must-have console.

Thing is, I do not deny that Microsoft can and definitely will continue to develop for the NXE, as they have an extremely solid foundation to build upon. However, taking into account the way social media and networking has and will more than likely continue to take over aspects of our everyday computing lives, I think something else to tie it all together is in the works. If you then also add in the fact that the line between your computer and TV keeps getting blurred more and more, I believe it all adds up to multiple top-tier development teams somewhere deep in top secret labs in Redmond are buried knee deep with the task of designing a brand new experience that somehow ties it all together. Which then leads to...

* Marketing. Marketing. Marketing.
This is perhaps the weakest reason for my prediction, but it actually has the potential to be the strongest if you also believe that companies live and die by their marketing departments. In keeping with this theory, it is my belief that 2010 just has a great ring to it. Simply put, 2011 does not. To further elaborate, I believe Microsoft might even break the tradition of a November release and go for an October release. Yep, that would be 10/10/2010. I can literally see the higher-ups in any marketing department gathered in a non-descript conference room giggling uncontrollably at the potential to launch on this date.

To summarize, I believe Microsoft recognizes that they have a unique opportunity to potentially overthrow Sony permanently and secure their dominance in the console market. I also happen to believe they are willing to take the potential risks and steps necessary to seize the moment and try to indeed do just that, also making the RROD of consoles past a distant memory. Will they announce it as soon as E3? Highly unlikely. Truth is who knows when they will announce it, but I do think for the reasons mentioned above, it will be much sooner than anyone might have expected.

This is funny, I actually just wrote something on this about 4-5 hours ago in a secret place where only people who know what the infinity sign looks like when you turn it 90 degrees would know how to find. Here are my reasons!

In this debate I want to show that releasing a new console in 2010 is not only possible, but the best time for a console company to jump the gun and release hardware early and potentially kick start a whole new generation of software. In this argument I will use Microsoft as my chosen hypothetical console company and I will assume the hardware cost will be $400 and that the console will use either a Wiimote type interface or some innovative equivelent but I will not specify the hardware specifications or the interface. I will just make the assumption that whatever the hardware is, it is powerful and the interface works well to simplify debate.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In every console 'generation' there have always been dark horses present. An unsung remnant of the previous 'generation' or a 'next generation' interloper. This generation has been no different than before as we saw the Xbox 360 start life with the PS2 in full swing and we saw the PS2 continue its life well into this generation. This interloper has always been a '+1' to a generation, so as we currently see in this generation we have the three mainline consoles and that +1, the PS2 is slowly fading away. As the current generation consoles mature and begin to fulfill the niche that the previous generation interloper fulfilled previously they move away from the top of the market and that gives room for a new interloper to come into play. In this case the interloper is a next generation console from Microsoft to use them as a test case.

The market dynamic as it currently exists is there are two roughly identical consoles fulfilling a traditional role as essentially extensions of the previous generations status quo and one console fulfilling a completely new identity in the Wii. The two HD consoles give high performance HD gaming to consumers whilst the Wii provides a multitude of new and innovative features which both draws in new consumer groups who never dreamed of playing games in the past and gave something entirely new to those who had played and enjoyed consoles previously. The market dynamic between these two groups is such that half the market belongs to one side and half the other. The console industry tends to favour monopolistic equilibriums, so the fact that both sides exist indicates that the market desires the mutually exclusive features of both consoles, otherwise one side would have claimed victory by now. The gap in the market is a position between both the Wii and the HD consoles. Between consumers, developers and publishers there must exist a market for those people who wish for the high performance and games available to the HD consoles and the interface innovations and ease of use of the Wii. This is where the next gen interloper can exist.

This current generations retail mix has proved that a variety of price and specification levels can be supported at retail. From the cheap $129 (now $100) PS2 all the way up to the middling Wii and the relatively expensive PS3, the market can support 4 consoles of varying price points and they can all thrive so long as they can offer something the others cannot albeit features or price or even games libraries. As 2010 approaches we can see that the Xbox 360 Arcade may very well move into the low price position of the PS2 and the Premium SKU, PS3 and Wii can occupy the middle $2-300 positions on the market. This leaves a gap in in retail space and market pricing which allows a new generation console to exist in the market at the same time.

At the publisher and developer level theres nothing entirely new in this hypothical console which would throw them or cause development costs to escalate any further than they currently are for HD consoles. Architecturally speaking as the console would be more powerful than the current HD consoles so any code could essentially be thrown on it and be expected to run and in essence it would be 'another' current generation HD console that they could port code to at a minimum of expense. The interface would be much the same, with experience developing for the Wii a similar interface would not be a great hurdle as the lessons learnt for the Wii could be instantly applicable to the new console as well. If expenses rose, it would only be at a pace which the market for software on the new console grew to justify this additional effort.

I understand theres a feeling that the next generation of hardware should be coming in 2012-2013, that people feel that development costs have escalated too far and that the potential of this generation should be kept unfettered by new consoles to allow this generation to mature better. However to leave a market vacuum in place for that long would be a disservice to consumers, because if a new console is accepted on the market it proves that there was a need all along in spite of the objections raised. If anything this generation proved that the issues were due to a sudden transition to high definition development rather than a gradual transition to a higher standard brought by a new console. The major complaints were raised not when the Xbox 360 was released, but when both the Xbox 360 and PS3 existed together and forced publishers to adapt their methodologies to new market conditions.

Im sorry Khuutie! ;_; (Perhaps I should just get this published on the main page?)

I honestly thought that a new XBox would be coming out in 2010, following Microsoft's addiction to the upgrade cycle. But there is one cold, hard reason that this cannot be the case: it's too close to that date, and there has been no announcement. If MS were planning a console release next year, they would have started to build hype for it by now. Any sensible console maker would.

We might see a new XBox in 2011, with hype starting in 2010, but this would be six years after the 360's release. That kind of longevity isn't earth-shattering by any stretch of the imagination, but it's certainly respectable. For all that I think Microsoft's influence on the industry has been poisonous, they seem to have at least come to their senses in this area, and that should be encouraged.

I like tetris

If they hype it now, sales will also die down as well. So its in their best interests to not hype a new release console until after the Christmas shopping season this year. After thats the slow season, and they can afford having slower sales because it won't matter quite as much.

Btw, 5-6 years is a typical length between generations... heck even the PS2 -> PS3 transition was that long. Any longer than 2010/2011 is actually A-typical.

Err I don't think they can do anything at this point to make Nintendo nervous with the Xbox 360. Also I don't think they have anything thats going to make Japan change its mind this time around.

Its highly possible. 2010 would be a solid 5 years after the 360, longer than the Xbox -> Xbox 360 gap.

This is FUD =/

I'm even sceptical of the rumored "slim 360" until next year. Jaspers barely show any reduction in motherboard components compared to Falcons... they might have to wait until they are able to merge the cpu and gpu on a single die.

I think the hard drive would be the biggest problem.  They would have to make a completely different set of hard drives.

The current HDD design dictates width, but it doesn't mean the consoles length or depth cannot be shortened some. Theres also a very obvious solution to this problem which is to make the HDD enclosure a two piece set where you can take the smaller piece out of the larger piece to fit it onto a slimline console.