currant sales:

Wii:  49.31

360: 30.06

PS3: 21.87       Total HD:51.93

Since the release of the wiips3 there have been approx 94.75million Home consoles sold.

wii:52.05%

360:24.87%

PS3:23.08%

With less than 2% difference between the HD consoles since dec/2006 who will sell the most?.

Remember that the 360 will peek before the PS3 though this may not be as soon as some people think.

So how will remaining sales trend? 

How close will they get?

I think that the Wii will pick up slightly to 55% the 360 will drop to 21% the PS3 will pick up to 24%

extra sale would be as follows.

Wii=60.5mil + 49.31=109.81mil

360=23.1mil +30.06=53.16mil

PS3=26.4mil +21.87=48.27

I think that the PS3 could trend higher than this as to which console it take extra sales from will decide the HD war

^It's not just 110 million consoles yet to sell this gen. The maths are rong.

If there's been 94.75million sold since release of PS3/Wii, that's in 2.4 years, it means the yearly sales are on average ~40 million.

There remains at least 3.5 years of this gen (for the X360 probably one year less). 3.5 x 40 = 140 million.

And dont forget the overlapping sales into next gen (beyond those 3.5 years). That's probably another 20-30 million.

So total sales is something like this:

100 mill sold so far
140 mill sales until next gen starts
20-30 mill overlapping sales in next gen
------------
260-270 mill

You need to actually give some proof of what you're saying. You are essentially just giving some background info (that is slightly flawed) and then spewing out some meaningless guesstimations.

Okay first. You say "there's just a 2% difference between the 2 HD consoles. Well, I disagree.

Look at it this way. Let's say you make 100 bucks an hour, I make 80. You could say that there's just an 11% difference from 44.5 to 55.5% of the total earned, but in reality, you make 25% more than me. The 11% is a flawed number, just as your 2%.

Secondly (I'll get back to the first). Your numbers are flawed. From week ending 11th November up untill date, this is the marketshare. 

Sold - marketshare -

Wii - 49.3M - 51.3%

Ps3 - 21.8M - 22.7%

X360 - 24.9M - 25.9%

That's a rather big difference from the ones you have in the OP, care to explain how you got them?

Back to the first point. X360 has sold 3.1M more than the Ps3 has sold. That's 14.2% more. A rather big number, but your OP doesn't show that.

Third - where's the "110M left" from? That doesn't add up.

Somehow believeing that the Wii will fail to sell 120M is ridiculous. It is steadily selling at a higher rate than the Ps2 ever did. Now, I'm not sure it's gonna have the longevity that the Ps2 had, so my personal estimation is 140-160M. That's lower than most people believe.

That alone is at least 70M more sold, and it is possibly 100M more.

You messed up X360 and Ps3 in the OP, they need to be switched. (Nevermind!)

Still, you claim that the X360 has only sold 26.4M. That's incorrect, it has sold 30.06M already. You're saying you believe it will only sell 18M more? That's ridiculous. It sold 11M last year, and it will definitely sell 11M this year. 13M is far more plausible, and some would say that 13M is too low. It has already sold 3M, so that's 10M left for the year. That will put it at 40M. I cannot see how it will fail to sell 10M more. 50M is pretty much the lowest possible.

Edit: Ah, I see I misunderstood. The sold so far is on the right, oddly enough. So you believe 53M. That's far more plausible, but still low-end.

As for the Ps3, you're pretty sound on that one really. 48M is slightly low-end, but not drastically. 

@slimebeast
[1] 110million is just a number that is most curtainly reachable

[2] while 3.5 years is more than fair nobody knows for sure how long this gen will go so I am more than happy to agree that it is possible. so 140mil could be right

[3]overlaping sales cound also be in the range that you have pointed out

Thank you for your input. I will do a rework with this in mind.

@Oyvoyvoyv
It's true that I have used Xbox360 sales roughly I used 6.5 mil as the approx number at the time of wiips3 lunch as they were not on the same day or week this does effect numbers a little.

[2]yes differance is 3.2% I couldn't find better numbers than the rough ones as I am not used to how to find them on this site yet thank you for pointing this out. my numbers came from 360 shipments september plus an est. to december less what I allowed for store stock=6.5mil.

[3]no as I was just using % sales at that point there was no atemp to mis lead with this just to try and keep thread from getting to long.
[4]It is only a number that I am curtain will be reached I'm more than willing to listen to others on est. numbers.
[5]in many way I agree that the wii will sell more than 120mil but I worked within the framework that I had setup.
[6]I agree that 110mil is the base min. that will be sold and it is possible that 200+mil extra may be sold
yes the 360 may sell more but it may be the first to start to slow down having said that as the numbers go beyond 110milso to will all three consoles go beyond my numbers I also believe that the Ps3 will do alittle better over time than the 360 as it will peek latter. I will try and rework numbers usings some of your post and see how it goes just remember that sales to come can only be est.

@kowenicki
I was only able to est. 360 sales at wiips3 launch so I est 6.5mil this has had a small effect but doesn't change the over all point and that is how close will they get to eachoter as the overall sales stay the same please remimber that I have est sales% of all 3 sys and split it up I may be wrong with my % breakdown it is best est. only

@kowenicki

This is very true that the 360 has been out selling the PS3 and if this was to cotinue for 18 more months or so it couldn't. But as360 sales start to taper downward while PS3 are still going up the gap will close faster than it opened up having said that this gen has been acting a little strange. So this may not happen but it could so the longer the gen goes I expect the PS3 to make more ground up eg 110mil 360=21% PS3=24%
130mil 360=19% PS3=26% sales % only est. but the greater and longer the sales the greater PS3% this may not be the case but this it what I think will happen.

Yeah, probably the Xbox 3 will launch one year earlier than the PS4, thus giving the PS3 a one year longer tail of sales, closing the gap and then some more... leaving the X360 3d in this gen.

@slimebeast
yes this is one of the things that make trying to est. end of gen sales so hard it would be nice if it started and finished at the same time for all three form a est. point of veiw.

You'd also need to know the total number that WILL sell, not the number of consoles which sold last generation. Remember, more people will likely own a console this generation than the last.