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Forums - Sales Discussion - Year End Prediction Thread (NA)

I know we might get a 3 month, 6 month or even 9 month prediction league at some point, but I thought I'd ask: Where will the US/Canada/ect be at the end of the year. I'm talking souly the American markets, not w/w. I believe we've had quite a few major threads on worldwide arguments, but lets talk the US - Where will the market be. So lets start a rough prediction for the EOY. Pick your own major top 10, and the typical hardware (Wii,PS3,360,NDS,PSP) Top 10 Software for 2007: Halo 3 - 4,250,000 Pokemon D/P - 4,050,000 GTAIV (360) - 3,250,000 Madden 08 (PS2) - 2,600,000 Madden 08 (360) - 2,450,000 Super Mario Galaxy - 2,400,000 God of War 2 - 1,950,000 GTAIV (PS3) - 1,750,000 Mass Effect - 1,750,000 Wii Play - 1,650,000 That'd be 4 360 games (ultra high, but Im a 360 fanboy and can't remember other major games from other studios), 2 Wii, 1 PS3, 2 PS2, 1 NDS, and about 20 million sellers in the year. And: Nintendo DS - 5,150,000 Xbox 360 - 4,750,000 Wii - 4,500,000 Playstation 2 - 4,100,000 Playstation 3 - 3,450,000 PSP - 3,050,000 How about everyone else?



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No LAIR, Heavenly Sword, or KillZone? And you know God of War2 has over 1million pre-orders...



PSN ID: Kwaad


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When are Heavenly Sword and Lair even slated for release? What about Killzone 2? KZ1 only sold 750k or so in the US, so I don't see how it'd end up tripling that number. Im not saying that Lair, HS or KZ2 would do bad...I had about 5 other PS3/PSP/PS2 games on the list till I had to cut it down. GoW 1 only sold 1.7m units in the US, so I wasn't trying to over-predict it.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Ahhh.. Killzone2... I beleive was said in one of the sony press confrences to see it in 2007. Heavenly currently has a june release date... LAIR was pushed back to Q3... (insert lots of vulgar words. That happend this week. It was may I think)



PSN ID: Kwaad


I fly this flag in victory!

The problem with predicting software for this year is that alot of the big games are 3rd party games with new IP...or new takes on 1st party franchises... My Tops 10 (the three consoles, then overall with DS & PSP included) Wii: 1) Super Smash Brothers Brawl 2,000,000 2) Super Mario Galaxy 1,750,000 3) Big Brain Academy 1,450,000 4) Metroid Prime 3 1,250,000 5) Guitar Hero 3 1,000,000 6) Mario Party 8 775,000 7) DDR: Hot Mix 750,000 8) Super Paper Mario 700,000 9) Wii Play 650,000 10) MySims 450,000 PS3: 1) Madden 08 1,300,000 2) GTA 1,150,000 3) Metal Gear Solid 4 1,000,000 4) Assassin's Creed 800,000 5) Heavenly Sword 600,000 6) Motorstorm 550,000 7) Resistance: Fall of Man 500,000 8) Killzone 430,000 9) NBA Live 400,000 10) VF5 340,000 360: 1) Halo 3 3,000,000 2) Madden 08 2,500,000 3) GTA 2,250,000 4) Assassin's Creed 1,500,000 5) Mass Effect 1,100,000 6) Guitar Hero 3 1,000,000 7) Blue Dragon 700,000 8) Lost Planet 650,000 9) Crackdown 500,000 10) Gears of War 400,000 Top 10 Overall 1) Halo 3 (360, Microsoft) 3,000,000 2) Pokemon (DS, Nintendo) 2,800,000 3) Madden 08 (360, EA) 2,500,000 4) Madden 08 (PS2, EA) 2,375,000 5) GTA IV (360, Take Two) 2,250,000 6) Super Smash Brothers Brawl (Wii, Nintendo) 2,000,000 7) Super Mario Galaxy (Wii, Nintendo) 1,750,000 8) Assassin's Creed (360, Ubi Soft) 1,500,000 9) Big Brain Academy (Wii, Nintendo ) 1,450,000 10) God of War 2 (PS2, I forget..) 1,350,000 Overall top 10 - Ps2 -2, 360 - 4, Wii - 3, DS - 1 17 games sell 1 million on all platforms - PS2 -2, 360 - 6, Wii - 5, DS - 1, PS3 - 3 LTD Hardware US end 07'/ Hardware sold in 07' PS2 - 43 million / 3 million XBOX - 17.5 million/ .2 million DS - 17.5 million / 7.5 million GC - 12.5 million / .5 million PSP - 12.0 million / 5 million 360 - 10.0 million /5 million? Wii - 6.75 million /5.6 million PS3 - 4.25 million /3.5 million



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My guess/Max that could Xbox 360 – 5.6 Million/6 Million Nintendo DS – 4.1 Million/5 million Wii – 3.6 Million/6.2 Million Playstation 3 – 3.6 Million/ 5 Million PSP – 3 Million/ 4 Million Playstation 2 – 2.3 Million/ 6 Million Those are better. I have a feeling the Wii will slowdown later this year and the 360 will explode when Halo 3 and GTA4 come out later this year. The PS3 is on pace to sell that much and with GTA4 coming it should get there. The second numbers are the max they could, and the PSP sells about as good and sometimes better than the DS during the summer.



I slightly agree... My guess is that at the end of this year PS3 will have sold a minimum of 4 million units..... it can pass the sales of the Xbox360. The sales of the Wii will slow down........Wii is not Nxt gen to me.... actually it is a piece of Sh@t It is innovative With what the PS3 games has in store for us....it will knock you of your boots and slippers..... I put my money on Fall of men, heavenly sword, Genji and Sonic For PSP well it has a steady sale with a boom her and there ......I want to see what wll happen If fall of men comes to PSP .......... Halo is a good games but Halo 2 didn't do well.......They must have something spectacular in Halo 3 for it to be a succes. All in all Ithink Wii and the PS3 will be the winners with PS3 in the lead this because PS3 is a treu Nxt gen machine (remember PS2? ) We(I) will support PSP and PS3 starting in 2009. Game digners favour PS3 (becoz of the CELL proccesor) Gamehouses prefer a console that has the biggest market........ Wii is going to lead at this moment



31 million PS3's by end of this year

 

I don't know about the games but I expect that by January 1st 2008: The Wii will have sold 5.5 to 6 Million units in North America The PS3 will have sold 4 Million units in North America And the XBox 360 will have sold 10 Million units in North America



Enlightment said: I slightly agree... My guess is that at the end of this year PS3 will have sold a minimum of 4 million units..... it can pass the sales of the Xbox360. The sales of the Wii will slow down........Wii is not Nxt gen to me.... actually it is a piece of Sh@t It is innovative With what the PS3 games has in store for us....it will knock you of your boots and slippers..... I put my money on Fall of men, heavenly sword, Genji and Sonic For PSP well it has a steady sale with a boom her and there ......I want to see what wll happen If fall of men comes to PSP .......... Halo is a good games but Halo 2 didn't do well.......They must have something spectacular in Halo 3 for it to be a succes. All in all Ithink Wii and the PS3 will be the winners with PS3 in the lead this because PS3 is a treu Nxt gen machine (remember PS2? ) We(I) will support PSP and PS3 starting in 2009. Game digners favour PS3 (becoz of the CELL proccesor) Gamehouses prefer a console that has the biggest market........ Wii is going to lead at this moment
WHAT??? Halo 2 sold 6 million units in america...It is one of the ten highest selling games of all time! It did great!