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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Charts Week 16 (04/13/09 - 04/19/09)

Rei on 22 April 2009

PS3 might outsell 360 worldwide if these numbers are correct.



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Kenology on 22 April 2009

So, according to MediaCreate:
Wii: 418,612
PS3: 385,173

According to Famitsu:
Wii: 459,000
PS3: 376,000

So Wii will stay ahead in Famitsu for sure. But it might not hold off the PS3 in Media Create sales.



edjevink on 22 April 2009
Gamerace said:
edjevink said:
@Gamerace: That doesn't change the fact that Deca Sporta 1 sold around 65.000 copies in it's first week in Japan. If Deca Sporta 2 is lucky, it sold 10.000 copies. I know that it probably will have long legs, but still, compared to it's predecessor it doesn't look good. But time will tell.

 

 Good point.  As Mike pointed out, I think the perception was that DS was Wii Sports 2 (unofficially) and that perception is clearly gone now.  I have no expectations of DS2 selling as well as DS unless it's a truly superior game, and even in that case it'll only be over the long haul.

Secondly the whole Japanese market is down, so softer sales aren't that surprising either.

But in the end it'll take months to truly gage DS2 sales not 1 day or 1 week.

True, at least for hardware sales. At the same time last year, when Deca Sporta 1 was released, the Wii sold around 56.000 units. Now the Wii is around 15.000 units. But like you said, it'll probably take weeks/months to see where DS2 sales are going.

 



papflesje on 22 April 2009

@ Kenology: I think most people just like the fact that Japan is a battlefield (for now) again.



Zlejedi on 22 April 2009
Rei said:
PS3 might outsell 360 worldwide if these numbers are correct.

Good point last week gap was 33k WW.

And Wii will probably lose some market share compared to HD twins.



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Hero_time88 on 22 April 2009

I don't want to criticize The Source, but he's pretty optimistic when it come's to Wii sales and pretty conservative when it come's to PS3 sales.



mrstickball on 22 April 2009
Gamerace said:

I am ashamed of all of you guys.

Why would anyone, other than a complete VGC noob, expect Deca Sporta 2 to have good 1st day sales? You all know as well as I that that is a game for the casual market and that the casual market does not pay attention to what's coming out. Once they discover it on the shelves, they'll buy it.

And the proof is in the pudding right on the front page -

Godfather 2 - PS3 sold 3,500 (35%) first day
Deca Sporta 2 - Wii sold 2,500 (5%) first day

And yet Deca Sporta ranked 10th for the week, whereas Godfather didn't rank in the top 10 at all. Telling you what? Deca Sporta sold much better over the course of the week than the front loaded Godfather.

I'm suprised a person with over 3,300 posts would be so uninformed to post this.

You see, in Japan, every opening day game has a multiplier within a very well-defined area. RPGs and blockbuster games will never see a 1x multiplier. Most see between 30-70% on most weekends, and sometimes less in very extreme cases due to selling out.

On the other end of the spectrum, you have ultra-casual games, but even then, they usually follow a very predictable formula: most see between a 2x and 3x multiplier on the week.

A few examples:

Game First Day (First Week) Multiplier
Animal Crossing Wii 170,000 (306,000) 1.8
Professor Layton 180,000 (356,000) 1.98
Super Mario Galaxy 130,000 (260,000) 2.0
Wagamama Fashion: Girls Mode 27,000 (80,000) 2.96
Rhytmn Tengoku Gold 150,000 (212,000) 1.41
Wii Music 50,000 (99,000) 1.98
Mario & Sonic At The Olympics 15,000 (67,000) 4.47
Deca Sports 30,000 (67,000) 2.23

Now, the point of this exercise is to show various legs for DS and Wii titles. Unlike sales over the course of a game's lifetime, first week sales are usually pretty easy to predict, even for casual games. Very few have over a 3x multiplier.

Because of that, Deca Sports 2 launching at 2.5k was horrendous, regardless if it's casual or not. With Wii Sports being 2 places ahead of it, and selling 10k, it proves that DS2 didn't have phenominal legs to it's first week. With under 10k sold through on it's first week, it still has under 20% of it's entire first shipment sold. That is very bad, regardless if the game is casual or not.

DS2 bombed. Hard. Hudson shipped 50,000 units and sold between 8,000-10,000. That's not good. Most of us knew that having a game like that open to 2,500 was bad, regardless. Sugar coat it in 'oh it's casual' all you want, but casual games' first weeks are predictable, and selling under 10,000 for your first week is NOT where Hudson wants DS to be. It may take months for DS2 to reach the sales of the first week sales of DS. That's horrible.

 



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BKK2 on 22 April 2009
edjevink said:
Gamerace said:
edjevink said:
@Gamerace: That doesn't change the fact that Deca Sporta 1 sold around 65.000 copies in it's first week in Japan. If Deca Sporta 2 is lucky, it sold 10.000 copies. I know that it probably will have long legs, but still, compared to it's predecessor it doesn't look good. But time will tell.

 

 Good point.  As Mike pointed out, I think the perception was that DS was Wii Sports 2 (unofficially) and that perception is clearly gone now.  I have no expectations of DS2 selling as well as DS unless it's a truly superior game, and even in that case it'll only be over the long haul.

Secondly the whole Japanese market is down, so softer sales aren't that surprising either.

But in the end it'll take months to truly gage DS2 sales not 1 day or 1 week.

But like you said, it'll probably take weeks/months to see where DS2 sales are going.

 

It's initial shipment was 80k, I doubt there will be a second.

 



Zuhyc on 22 April 2009
Hero_time88 said:
I don't want to criticize The Source, but he's pretty optimistic when it come's to Wii sales and pretty conservative when it come's to PS3 sales.

 

The japanese preview hasn't been accurate on the hardware for quite a while now. The software mostly really good keeping in mind they are estimates.



outlawauron on 22 April 2009
Hero_time88 said:
I don't want to criticize The Source, but he's pretty optimistic when it come's to Wii sales and pretty conservative when it come's to PS3 sales.

Not many could have predicted the PS3 selling ~60k.



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