Personally I have had the feeling that the brand loyalty argument holds no more water then a leaking bucket. I give the consumer in Europe and Australia far more credit them some. Had the argument carried weight Nintendo sure as hell would not be doing as well as it has been, and Microsoft would not have sold over three million units. Combined the two have sold some six million units of an estimated forty million market. I see them selling combined no less then ten million units combined by the end of the year. I doubt these are all new gamers many are former Sony gamers jumping ship. These two consoles are thriving in what is supposed to be Sony land.
Looking at the charts it is obvious that cash is king, and next gen at a low price is even better. At the very least in the eyes of the current crop of buyers. The Wii is moving well by being low priced next gen system. The 360 is moving well by having a better price and being a next generation system. The PS2 is still moving well enough to beet the PS3, because it is a cheap system. Price seems to be more then half the battle, or the determinant factor in this war.
I think Microsoft will hold its own, and probably outperform the PS3. Based on the trends that can be observed. Microsoft will do well if it can keep its current sales ratio to the Wii through the rest of the year. That will be the real water mark. Right now Microsoft is close to selling one console for every two consoles Nintendo sells. Nobody expects the Wii to be stopped in Europe. So if Microsoft can maintain that ratio they will be very healthy in Europe.
The important thing is that the 360 can actually get this close to the Wii in Europe. That is almost 2:1 whereas the PS3 is only doing a little over 4:1 likewise the PS2 is doing 4:1. They have done that having been on the market for so long, and after a modest price cut. Realistically of the two high def consoles they stand the better chance in a Nintendo dominated market.
They have effectively held their own, and their established user base proves they will hold their own for quite some time given the PS3s sales. Even if they started to lose to Sony again they would still hold their own for quite some time.