This pay to play thing was confirmed for Monster Hunter G. Did we get any info regarding MH3 online?

People are so fucking misinformed.

Pay-to-Play has ALWAYS been in Japanese Monster Hunter!

When its been localized its always be free!

People run their fucking mouths when they dont no shit.

OT: I dunno how much its gonna sell. I dont care either. But to answer your question its simple where the expectations come from.

Wii has biggest install base in Japan.
MH is big in Japan.

A big install basewith a big series is usually means big sales right?

Japan : 2 million
WW : 3 million

300k in Japan.

so the psp owners are paying to play with their friends right next to them?  I don't believe you.

Let's be realistic here - the last console Monster Hunter was Monster Hunter 2, and it sold as much as Monster Hunter Portable (sans BEST rev).

There's no reason why Wii version shouldn't at least sell on par with MHP2G, then. Unlike MHP2G it's "mothership" version, so that counts as well. Also, just like MHP2 (and G), it will help Nintendo sell hundreds of thousands Wii consoles upon its debut.

As for EU/NA sales, Wii is far more popular than PSP ever was, and Nintendo are going to market it, so I expect MH3 to totally eclipse previous MH sales in the West.

Anything less would be a huge disappointment.

It will be the best selling third party title on a console in Japan this gen. Currently MGS4 holds that title.

1-1.5 million in Japan. I'm still skeptical if they'll release it outside of Japan but if they do then about another 200k-300k.

Should do fairly well in Japan especially considering it's seen as the big Wii game for the Japanese crowd this year.

Not really. The install base didn't help the PS2 versions beat the PSP ones.

Same for Call of Duty 1 (PS2) vs say Call of Duty 4 on 360.  If you are looking at it from such a miniscule perspective such as userbase then of course you'll not see the big picture.  Like when Modern Warfare turned the series or brand into something large then sales increased.  Had really nothing to do with userbase but now the brand is hot.  More people going to buy it.  Not to mention when it is seen as the dominant brand for that genre then it even owns the hell out of other games in the genre such as how Resistance 2 fell to World at War.

It's something almost exactly the same with Monster Hunter.  When it was on PS2 it just wasn't a huge property.  But it just happened to take off with the PSP and the brand became large in the country.  Building off that, the Wii version should feed off of it. 

Userbase is a limiting factor people not a law.  Monster Hunter 3 on Wii won't do as well as the MH PSP games but the brand is large enough right now to make it do better than most of the PS2 versions before it.