It's cooling down in Japan (due to known problems which can and will be fixed), but improving everywhere else. No reason to claim Nintendo as a whole is cooling down.

Undoubtedly. Now would you say that's because so-called casual Wii owners aren't buying games anymore, or because the Wii's biggest Japanese release in Q1 is a Gamecube port going up against Yakuza 3, Resident Evil 5, and Star Ocean 4?

No it's not. Check out the title:

After years of videogaming success, Nintendo Co. is beginning to look vulnerable.

And then this quote from the article:

"The usual idea is that whatever you see happening in Japan, you tend to see overseas two to three years later," said Hiroshi Kamide, an analyst at KBC Securities in Tokyo.

It would appear to be cooling down in others as well. 2nd quater 2008 averaged 180k sales. Now it is dipping into the 120s without a turnaround it will be down 500k+ sales YOY in quater 2.

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS3&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=X360&reg3=Total+Other&start=39453&end=39908

Thee Wii software droughtwillkind of end in 2 weeks,(in NA and Japan(

After another 3 weeks, consistent software will start to release more frequently for the Wii and DS, so I expect a solid rebound.

Wii
April: Excitebots/ Monster Hunter G
May: Punchout
June: The Conduit
July: Sin& Punishment 2

You probably should wait for the end of 2Q to make the comparion. In March 2008 (5 weeks), Wii sold between 106,000 and 133,000 units. The sales only picked up after mid April.

On the other hand, one home console is down more than 20% in Others in March.

why do i feel that i've seen this before?

Two words: Hiroshi Kamide

An analyst with a track record of dogging the Wii, the DS and Nintendo.

Is she right? I don't know. But like analysts in other places around the world, if they keep singing the same song, eventually someone will listen. (Think Patcher).


Also, it should be interesting to see if the past trend of the rest of the world following Japan continues. It may be time that the markets are going to act differently.

For example: Casual gaming growth has been the primary driver for the industry over the last three years, the key player being the Nintendo DS. We believe DS hardware demand has now peaked globally. A downturn in software demand is likely to follow, as casual gamers are ‘happy with their lot’ and do not need to consume more. We feel that the same predicament awaits the Wii console with its similar market expansion angle. Titles such as ‘Brain Training’ and ‘Wii Fit’ do not act as ‘gateway drugs’ to turn non-traditional gamers to core repeat users. We feel this is a structural industry issue that cannot be easily changed. -- Hiroshi Kamide said this in June 2008.

Mike from Morgantown

Like I already tried to say people to get off their high horses, this is article in the prime financial newspaper and as a result the angle is going to be financial and how Nintendo stock is going to fare in the future ( because that's what people reading it are looking for).

And from that point of view it's undeniable that the stock will cool down.
Will Nintendo keep posting great profit, undeniably.
Will the profit keep growing at the same rythm as the previous years which could boost the stock higher, very very doubtfull and that's what cooling means.
The stock was red hot. It isn't any more now it's just the stock of a company with strong financial but no huge growth in view for the next 2-3 years....( I just don't see another title having the impact of Wii Fit or Mk Wii releasing within the next 12 months, even a Zelda Wii woudn't be in the same league...).