Just asking when people think the wii sales will pass the sales of xbox360 + ps3.  My guess is the end of 2009.  Your predictions....???

At the current rate somewhere in 2011-2012 :)

This Christmas, for sure.

Fairly soon it would appear.

It sure is taking its sweet time.

The Wii is outselling PS360 combined with less than 5k per week on average lately.

It should pick up a little in the summer, and it will really fasten up in the holiday season, but still, it probably won't happen this year (mainly due to Japan).

I agree with Chrizum, it's outselling PS360, but not by enough to claim 50% marketshare anytime soon. I definitely can't see it happening this year. Then again, this is the Wii and Nintendo we're talking about, so who knows, anything could happen... We DO have WSR coming up...

Putting in some math.

Wii sales: 49.08M

Ps360 sales: 51.31

Gap: 2.23M

Sales so far in 2008:

Wii: 5386K

Ps360: 5168K

Gap: 218K

Total number of weeks: 13

Weekly sales difference: ~ 20,000. (Actually slightly lower, at 17K)

So, if those weekly sales stayed, it would take 110 weeks. That's 2 years. Of course, the sales won't stay the exact same.

Or rather...

If Nintendo doesn't up production, they'll produce 2.4M/month. Assume 2.2M goes into stores.

3 months have passed.

Total sales: 5.4M

Expected shipments: 6.6M

Or even just march.

March: 1517K (4 weeks) = 380K/week.

Expected shipments: 550K/week. Nintendo shipped for march at just 1520K. That's 900K that weren't sold... Where the heck did these go? They're not gonna take 750K + each month for stockpilling, are they?

So, here's an assumption.

Nintendo are stocking units for their major 2009 releases.

I'm not sure if they are, but it's the only plausible explanation I see.

Anyway, you can expect Wii to sell 15-20% more on a weekly basis in May than it did in March. Chances are the Ps360 won't get a boost.

Another thing worth noting is that Ps360 dropped in March.

Gah, I went off-topic, didn't I?

Numbers really depend on the scope of the data set you want to use. If you look at how much the gap has closed since the Wii's launch, the weekly results will probably be different than if you used, say, the last 20 weeks of sales.

If I had to guess? End of November, at the latest.

If the 360 or PS3 don't get a price cut by the years end, then the Wii will be ahead